Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.16K

Unrealized P&L

+$157

Hit rate

92.6%

Resolved

105

Trades

800

lifetime

Volume

$372.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$466

Open exposure

$10.5K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-24 06:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

71% 93% +$1,883

Other

29% 97% +$2,274

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+7,881	$7,239	94¢	$7.4K	+$129	10-22 09:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1,401	$1,121	82¢	$1.1K	+$21	05-25 16:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+895	$864	97¢	$866	+$2	10-22 15:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	+602	$594	100¢	$600	+$6	10-15 09:28
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	+371	$338	92¢	$340	+$2	10-20 04:54
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+233	$151	64¢	$148	-$3	10-24 06:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	13	$21.0K	12,578	9,367	+3,212	No	+$291	04-19 21:42
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	10	$15.5K	8,969	7,000	+1,969	Yes	-$112	03-05 21:47
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	18	$14.8K	7,250	7,748	-498	No	+$133	03-31 08:11
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	4	$14.7K	13,695	1,217	+12,479	No	+$217	02-14 03:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	79	$13.4K	13,645	0	+13,645	No	+$206	04-16 02:14
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	30	$12.6K	6,400	6,618	-218	No	+$410	01-30 20:43
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	29	$12.4K	12,815	0	+12,815	No	+$447	04-25 22:25
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election 836	12	$11.8K	6,040	6,083	-43	No	+$359	01-18 22:27
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	3	$9.8K	9,839	0	+9,839	No	+$10	02-12 03:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	4	$9.0K	9,542	0	+9,542	Yes	+$534	10-22 19:45
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	11	$8.7K	7,351	1,519	+5,832	No	+$60	02-21 03:08
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	10	$8.2K	8,306	0	+8,306	No	+$58	02-28 03:19
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$8.2K	8,248	0	+8,248	No	+$25	02-27 01:53
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	6	$7.6K	2,349	5,349	-3,000	No	+$45	01-30 22:32
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	5	$7.5K	3,794	3,794	+0	No	+$52	01-20 20:28
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	11	$7.2K	7,881	0	+7,881	open	—	10-22 09:50
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	7	$7.1K	7,098	0	+7,098	No	+$33	02-25 02:09
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	2	$7.1K	7,073	0	+7,073	No	+$7	02-11 02:52
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$7.1K	7,066	0	+7,066	No	+$14	02-24 02:48
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	1	$6.9K	6,934	0	+6,934	Yes	+$14	03-05 21:51
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$6.3K	3,212	3,212	+0	No	+$42	02-15 18:46
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$6.3K	6,270	0	+6,270	No	+$6	02-22 03:27
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	71	$6.0K	3,039	3,039	+0	Yes	+$40	02-11 07:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	18	$6.0K	4,146	4,146	+0	Yes	-$1,963	04-08 07:54
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	1	$5.6K	5,563	0	+5,563	No	+$11	02-20 02:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5.4K	5,473	0	+5,473	Yes	+$38	04-19 21:42
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	19	$5.4K	5,990	0	+5,990	No	+$620	03-25 16:31
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	7	$5.0K	5,010	0	+5,010	No	+$32	01-18 22:56
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$4.9K	2,752	2,752	+0	No	+$116	03-10 07:56
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	2	$4.7K	4,760	0	+4,760	No	+$21	02-17 18:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 06:10:06	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xc908ad…
10-24 05:31:27	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	212	65¢	$138	0x5746e2…
10-22 19:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,931	94¢	$4,635	0x07e8f8…
10-22 19:24:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,800	95¢	$3,610	0x4e68c4…
10-22 18:13:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x4e7045…
10-22 15:14:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x278a98…
10-22 13:58:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	297	97¢	$287	0xabbdec…
10-22 13:58:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	199	96¢	$192	0xf5cf23…
10-22 09:50:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	1,939	92¢	$1,784	0x454528…
10-22 08:56:56	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x827728…
10-22 08:56:39	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb0cb47…
10-22 08:56:24	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x9bf53c…
10-22 08:56:24	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	48	92¢	$44	0x36312d…
10-22 08:56:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xd294ac…
10-22 08:56:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x67519c…
10-22 08:56:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x656ae9…
10-22 08:56:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x2b1a39…
10-22 07:18:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x561c78…
10-22 07:17:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	4,784	92¢	$4,401	0xc088d9…
10-20 23:38:47	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	1,098	91¢	$999	0x501bdd…
10-20 04:54:05	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0xc11ad6…
10-20 04:54:00	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x3ed25e…
10-20 04:53:57	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xc9e1bb…
10-20 04:53:53	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x26a843…
10-20 03:11:09	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$5	0x5b3149…
10-20 02:21:02	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x6faff5…
10-17 19:02:12	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	37	93¢	$34	0xbe885f…
10-17 14:40:17	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x3fdaad…
10-17 01:25:51	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xb39fcf…
10-15 09:28:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	401	99¢	$396	0x1fa74b…
10-15 07:38:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 18	Yes	BUY	212	94¢	$199	0x353102…
10-14 22:16:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	108	98¢	$106	0xf4c68f…
10-14 22:12:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	214	99¢	$211	0x6425ce…
06-15 20:21:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	96¢	$46	0xbdfae7…
06-15 20:04:12	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	BUY	496	99¢	$492	0x15709e…
06-15 20:04:01	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	BUY	400	99¢	$397	0x6ecd62…
06-15 19:55:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	852	97¢	$822	0xf21597…
06-15 14:16:46	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x338696…
06-15 07:48:22	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x028ffa…
06-15 07:03:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	22	86¢	$19	0x68b152…
06-15 07:03:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xa10a70…
06-15 07:03:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	350	86¢	$300	0x56cf92…
06-15 07:03:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0xeb5fc9…
06-12 00:55:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	107	98¢	$106	0x0ad914…
06-12 00:45:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	93	98¢	$91	0xf1b73b…
05-28 20:21:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	344	100¢	$343	0xacf82e…
05-28 20:20:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6f9b42…
05-28 20:20:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0xc971f6…
05-28 20:20:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,282	100¢	$1,280	0x6c6e57…
05-28 20:18:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	175	100¢	$174	0x2584a0…
05-28 20:18:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	800	100¢	$798	0xc12b67…
05-25 20:19:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	388	99¢	$383	0xbc5137…
05-25 20:15:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$247	0x610a01…
05-25 20:13:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x0ced14…
05-25 20:13:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	60¢	$119	0xa09324…
05-25 20:09:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	173	99¢	$171	0xf8e26a…
05-25 17:13:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	598	97¢	$582	0x7c4523…
05-25 16:43:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x9261bb…
05-25 16:37:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0x949da5…
05-25 16:35:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x8c5dd9…
05-25 16:10:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	155	80¢	$124	0x7b30dc…
05-25 16:07:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,065	80¢	$852	0xa205b9…
05-25 15:06:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0xe0f0ec…
05-25 14:59:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	134	80¢	$108	0xb691c9…
05-25 13:06:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xfcdb33…
05-06 09:05:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x8844e1…
05-06 09:04:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	815	91¢	$742	0x9a6005…
05-04 21:25:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	860	92¢	$791	0x2a1216…
05-04 20:35:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xc224b4…
05-04 20:34:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	699	96¢	$670	0x59cb72…
05-04 20:34:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	671	92¢	$617	0xeacd58…
05-03 17:42:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	285	94¢	$268	0xebecdc…
05-03 10:46:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	799	95¢	$759	0x094ef8…
05-03 10:44:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	399	95¢	$379	0x175188…
05-03 00:11:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	598	92¢	$550	0xd0f055…
05-02 23:08:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	69	80¢	$55	0xf3b47b…
05-02 22:57:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	398	98¢	$388	0xe1d0f8…
05-02 22:47:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	79	93¢	$73	0x81908f…
05-02 22:46:24	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	No	BUY	99	94¢	$93	0x694703…
05-02 22:44:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	398	82¢	$326	0xe848ca…
05-02 22:42:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	398	96¢	$382	0xddbbab…
05-02 22:40:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0x8908e4…
05-02 22:39:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	398	91¢	$362	0x75a73f…
05-02 22:39:10	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	199	93¢	$185	0xbf60f4…
05-01 15:36:20	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	199	92¢	$183	0x3247ce…
05-01 00:02:24	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x15cf90…
04-30 23:28:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	41	86¢	$35	0xd61f3a…
04-30 23:04:36	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	BUY	199	92¢	$183	0x7ee865…
04-30 22:33:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	357	86¢	$307	0x63d7d5…
04-30 22:02:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	797	92¢	$736	0x7fcb23…
04-30 21:32:20	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	1,029	86¢	$885	0x2106e5…
04-30 21:32:04	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x733421…
04-30 21:29:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	368	92¢	$340	0x746e48…
04-25 22:25:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	163	96¢	$157	0xfabfd4…
04-25 22:25:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	109	96¢	$105	0x52e793…
04-25 22:08:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa526f9…
04-25 22:04:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	132	96¢	$127	0x5a24bb…
04-22 11:17:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x08af4e…
04-21 21:15:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	24¢	$48	0x4b909d…
04-19 21:55:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	606	96¢	$582	0x40be31…