Astonishing-Broccoli — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

Trades

233

lifetime

Volume

$527

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-26

last 08-20 06:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Politics

47% 35% -$43

Other

34% 57% -$18

Tech

10% 100% +$6

Crypto

7% 50% +$0

Sports

2% 25% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+35	$8	0¢	$0	-$8	05-28 10:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	11	$22	33	33	+0	Yes	+$3	06-05 18:08
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	5	$20	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	06-02 23:26
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	10	$17	57	57	+0	No	-$6	06-06 12:54
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	4	$16	13	13	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	5	$15	15	15	+0	open	—	06-13 06:05
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	4	$14	10	10	+0	Yes	+$3	06-07 18:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	3	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	07-01 14:50
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	3	$13	15	15	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$12	9	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$12	9	8	+0	No	+$0	07-01 14:50
will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	3	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	07-01 14:50
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	3	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-02 05:57
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	6	$12	17	12	+5	Yes	-$5	06-09 19:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$12	24	24	+0	No	$0	05-26 23:29
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	4	$12	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	07-01 14:50
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	4	$11	11	11	+0	open	—	07-02 05:58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$11	10	10	+0	No	$0	05-27 12:25
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	9	$11	55	0	+55	No	-$11	05-29 12:08
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	3	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	07-01 14:50
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	5	$10	40	0	+40	Yes	-$10	06-07 01:09
will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	3	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	07-02 06:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	4	$9	9	9	+0	Yes	-$3	06-13 09:52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	4	$9	9	8	+0	Yes	-$3	06-13 17:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$9	17	17	+0	No	+$1	06-14 22:07
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	4	$9	25	25	+0	No	-$4	07-02 05:59
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$8	9	9	+0	No	-$1	06-08 01:26
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	06-27 21:14
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$8	35	0	+35	open	—	05-28 10:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 06:41:51	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xf2910f…
07-02 06:03:26	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0xda2815…
07-02 06:02:52	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x6a6f3b…
07-02 06:02:23	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x61a605…
07-02 06:02:11	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xcf077e…
07-02 06:01:47	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd616aa…
07-02 06:01:25	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x5cc606…
07-02 06:00:53	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x617321…
07-02 06:00:29	will ink launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x746367…
07-02 06:00:08	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0x05fe9d…
07-02 05:59:08	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0x7c508f…
07-02 05:58:34	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x6281d1…
07-02 05:58:13	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	41¢	$5	0x1acaa4…
07-02 05:57:49	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x0a02de…
07-01 14:51:02	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x33dc17…
07-01 14:51:01	Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x7e30f9…
07-01 14:50:59	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0xdc45a5…
07-01 14:50:58	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xae012b…
07-01 14:50:53	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x1b17d4…
07-01 14:50:50	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$6	0x274152…
07-01 14:50:49	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xf5ba26…
07-01 14:50:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0xf53261…
07-01 14:50:44	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xd516f6…
07-01 14:50:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x818a8d…
07-01 14:50:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x1c8f83…
07-01 14:50:40	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	No	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x21075e…
07-01 14:50:37	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	63¢	$8	0x82ba8e…
07-01 14:50:35	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x2f7798…
06-27 22:45:52	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x049472…
06-27 22:40:20	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe76fd0…
06-27 21:14:44	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xb214ee…
06-22 15:00:35	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x9e97c3…
06-22 12:57:23	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd6bbd9…
06-19 05:13:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xa43c57…
06-16 01:56:07	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x3cb5b1…
06-15 18:08:00	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x9b8ca5…
06-15 13:34:21	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd58da0…
06-14 23:32:01	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x45a8b2…
06-14 23:18:46	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xcb7163…
06-14 22:07:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0x5ce5ce…
06-14 22:04:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x8d3c58…
06-14 22:01:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x4ad1ed…
06-13 17:37:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xdf532a…
06-13 17:35:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x9dc68e…
06-13 17:28:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0xcebc03…
06-13 17:27:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x1508dc…
06-13 15:04:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4c831d…
06-13 11:48:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x6673da…
06-13 10:34:19	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x2f644c…
06-13 10:33:15	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x22a750…
06-13 10:33:07	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x499798…
06-13 09:52:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xc3f697…
06-13 09:49:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x042a9b…
06-13 06:36:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	4	71¢	$2	0x4ed9aa…
06-13 06:13:01	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xb290a0…
06-13 06:05:09	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xed0992…
06-13 06:05:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x4da04d…
06-13 06:05:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xc25597…
06-13 05:55:21	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x7c3e6b…
06-13 05:45:15	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x0c38e0…
06-11 21:09:04	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x0a7838…
06-11 20:31:42	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xb0c25e…
06-11 19:11:09	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4de4ff…
06-11 17:11:24	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x62f515…
06-11 12:23:16	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x321911…
06-11 12:23:07	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x347bb6…
06-11 11:01:45	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xe76acb…
06-11 11:01:25	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x073dcd…
06-11 08:11:51	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa4350e…
06-11 04:55:42	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x54f53f…
06-11 04:39:43	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xe41c00…
06-11 03:09:28	Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x9b7372…
06-11 01:02:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xebbb45…
06-10 23:48:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xf0532d…
06-10 22:47:13	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0xa3ad02…
06-10 09:10:30	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x9eeeef…
06-09 23:57:10	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x57045c…
06-09 19:30:55	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x8b0835…
06-09 19:26:09	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbe6705…
06-09 19:22:36	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x8aac31…
06-09 03:04:16	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x657fed…
06-09 01:41:37	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1f001a…
06-08 08:58:54	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x772eb7…
06-08 03:00:12	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1	48¢	$1	0x070fbf…
06-08 02:58:03	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xaca08b…
06-08 02:54:09	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x634d20…
06-08 02:36:39	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x9a1415…
06-08 01:32:43	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xff05fd…
06-08 01:32:39	Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xea0e72…
06-08 01:32:37	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xabc040…
06-08 01:26:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0xb49fc7…
06-08 01:25:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x7a5de4…
06-08 01:25:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xad02df…
06-07 20:28:21	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x76246d…
06-07 20:10:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xda5a01…
06-07 19:56:04	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xc4e444…
06-07 19:44:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x607c0a…
06-07 18:52:16	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x41d023…
06-07 18:49:37	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xb8989f…
06-07 01:09:15	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x2c2187…