Fortunate-Hazelnut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.99K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

558

lifetime

Volume

$113.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$204

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-19 10:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

77% 100% +$1,986

Other

14% 100% +$6

Crypto

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	39	$9.9K	17,772	0	+17,772	open	—	06-14 04:01
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	51	$9.6K	5,722	11,906	-6,184	open	—	04-11 08:33
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	7	$6.5K	3,405	3,405	+0	open	—	04-15 22:07
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	44	$5.6K	2,054	5,604	-3,550	open	—	02-28 19:51
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	13	$5.1K	1,110	7,784	-6,674	open	—	04-17 03:02
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	26	$4.3K	790	6,109	-5,319	open	—	04-11 06:08
iran leadership change by march 31	5	$3.7K	2,127	2,127	+0	open	—	03-27 15:54
Iran leadership change by April 30?	8	$3.5K	2,542	2,542	+0	open	—	04-03 22:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	16	$3.4K	0	6,845	-6,845	open	—	04-02 13:04
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	15	$3.4K	3,874	2,738	+1,136	open	—	04-15 23:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$3.4K	2,693	2,693	+0	Yes	+$1,939	05-09 07:56
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	2	$3.4K	2,202	2,202	+0	open	—	04-13 16:11
us x iran meeting by april 11 2026 678	2	$3.4K	1,867	1,867	+0	open	—	04-11 02:27
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	17	$3.1K	2,340	1,419	+921	open	—	04-07 22:36
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	12	$3.0K	1,577	1,577	+0	open	—	01-16 04:10
us x iran meeting by april 12 2026 558	14	$3.0K	1,596	1,562	+34	open	—	04-11 05:51
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	40	$2.8K	3,698	3,697	+1	open	—	04-21 02:13
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	20	$2.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-20 17:33
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$2.5K	1,648	1,647	+1	open	—	04-07 22:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$2.2K	2,153	2,153	+0	open	—	05-23 17:03
Iran leadership change by March 13?	3	$2.1K	736	2,068	-1,332	open	—	03-11 15:30
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	3	$2.0K	1,049	1,049	+0	Yes	+$48	05-13 01:09
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	3	$2.0K	2,101	2,101	+0	open	—	03-10 09:56
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$2.0K	1,184	1,184	+0	open	—	01-15 13:25
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$1.7K	934	934	+0	open	—	02-11 08:17
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	open	—	02-23 02:35
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	7	$1.7K	900	900	+0	open	—	02-16 06:34
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	open	—	02-20 15:44
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	11	$1.4K	1,000	1,969	-969	open	—	01-27 08:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	32	$1.3K	977	2,158	-1,180	open	—	03-10 09:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 10:14:06	will daylight launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0xe77e04…
06-21 03:24:37	will daylight launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	248	49¢	$122	0x400123…
06-20 10:19:52	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xc8927d…
06-20 08:01:13	will propr launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	16	85¢	$13	0xfa290e…
06-17 04:10:47	will propr launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	16	84¢	$13	0x046bcd…
06-14 04:01:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	793	56¢	$444	0xd2e84f…
06-14 03:55:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	55	56¢	$31	0xcd1cbb…
06-14 03:55:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	59	56¢	$33	0x26fd0d…
06-14 03:54:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	39	56¢	$22	0x8b33a5…
06-14 03:54:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	58	56¢	$32	0x757098…
06-14 03:54:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	65	56¢	$36	0x475214…
06-14 03:54:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	57	56¢	$32	0x228204…
06-14 03:53:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	67	56¢	$38	0xe05e2c…
06-14 03:53:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	69	56¢	$39	0x665f20…
06-14 03:53:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	46	56¢	$26	0x5824e2…
06-14 03:53:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x127689…
06-14 03:50:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	78	56¢	$44	0xa73038…
06-14 03:50:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	51	56¢	$29	0x921f89…
06-14 03:29:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0x41968e…
06-14 03:28:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xe530e4…
06-14 03:28:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	82	56¢	$46	0xc19058…
06-14 03:28:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	26	56¢	$15	0x8277f1…
06-14 03:13:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x893c83…
06-14 03:11:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc306ac…
06-14 02:58:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	62	56¢	$35	0xeba44e…
06-14 02:56:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe4e053…
06-14 02:52:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	26	56¢	$15	0x75db99…
06-14 02:49:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	461	56¢	$258	0x193f73…
06-14 02:33:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x6b1ded…
06-14 02:32:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc6fda8…
06-14 02:29:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	97	56¢	$54	0xf4a4de…
06-14 02:29:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	78	56¢	$44	0xe95f53…
06-14 02:29:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	58	56¢	$32	0xb55191…
06-14 02:29:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	85	56¢	$48	0x1f0f01…
06-14 02:29:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x5b30b9…
06-14 02:29:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3,393	56¢	$1,900	0x6a18b1…
06-14 02:04:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8,010	56¢	$4,500	0x6a8c55…
06-12 09:32:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	348	21¢	$73	0xb565cd…
06-12 09:32:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	52	21¢	$11	0x1ec4e3…
06-12 09:27:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x8eb0b4…
06-12 09:18:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	400	19¢	$76	0x4b817b…
06-12 05:18:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	400	19¢	$76	0x4bef74…
06-05 15:10:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	528	36¢	$190	0x1dcc8d…
06-05 15:10:13	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	206	96¢	$197	0x80abe0…
05-29 06:43:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	67	60¢	$40	0x88a4e9…
05-28 15:40:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,800	57¢	$1,026	0xba4f7a…
05-28 15:37:34	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1,105	91¢	$1,010	0xcff44e…
05-28 06:28:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,109	57¢	$632	0xb4bf8e…
05-28 05:53:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xc2a6b5…
05-28 05:31:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	179	57¢	$102	0x02707e…
05-28 05:30:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	79	57¢	$45	0xc65025…
05-27 05:01:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	188	67¢	$127	0xc39ae6…
05-27 05:01:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x1f7ea5…
05-23 17:03:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,053	33¢	$347	0x8f6890…
05-13 01:09:57	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	SELL	248	100¢	$247	0x519b41…
05-13 00:46:51	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	SELL	801	100¢	$800	0x776d2e…
05-11 15:45:03	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xbe5296…
05-09 15:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,176	2¢	$20	0x767cb8…
05-09 08:57:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x36e48f…
05-09 07:56:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,693	99¢	$2,666	0x0cf37c…
05-07 16:25:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	76	18¢	$14	0xfd755f…
04-21 02:26:10	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	892	70¢	$627	0x800144…
04-21 02:18:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf2adc6…
04-21 02:18:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x93335d…
04-21 02:16:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xcaf534…
04-21 02:16:28	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	275	66¢	$181	0x358113…
04-21 02:13:26	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	3,697	25¢	$909	0x9d0de3…
04-20 17:33:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xd93ae5…
04-20 17:32:44	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xafaf65…
04-20 17:32:44	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	2,135	43¢	$918	0x8b9e49…
04-20 17:29:20	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	998	92¢	$918	0x027cf1…
04-20 16:41:30	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	564	42¢	$239	0xf272ef…
04-20 02:16:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	15,000	0¢	$15	0x1dbc65…
04-20 02:16:34	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0xd93dca…
04-20 02:15:22	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x28bd8d…
04-19 16:05:20	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	53	70¢	$37	0xea75d9…
04-19 16:04:02	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xaac235…
04-19 16:01:58	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	23	70¢	$16	0x79e43b…
04-19 15:57:10	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xb1c9db…
04-19 15:57:00	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xfb3882…
04-19 15:55:18	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	145	70¢	$102	0xf50879…
04-19 15:53:42	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xf62deb…
04-19 15:53:16	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0xd9e0cc…
04-19 15:53:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	83¢	$133	0xab5bd1…
04-19 15:50:30	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xd27843…
04-19 15:47:16	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xba1c06…
04-19 15:46:46	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd22058…
04-19 15:46:18	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x46e85e…
04-19 15:45:48	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x1a8e94…
04-19 15:41:18	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x502962…
04-19 15:40:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0xd025ad…
04-19 15:40:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	83¢	$13	0x701f55…
04-19 15:39:56	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xe131a2…
04-19 15:38:14	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x4f4d9e…
04-19 15:33:30	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x48998e…
04-19 15:26:44	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x870688…
04-19 15:26:04	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x1d7e53…
04-19 15:25:26	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xfcd092…
04-19 15:24:42	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x9c5bf3…
04-19 15:22:56	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0x40b591…