Jaded-Windchime — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$5.33K

Unrealized P&L

-$809

Hit rate

77.7%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

2,424 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$10.5K

$277.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$114

Open exposure

$3.66K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 18:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

50% 46% -$6,595

Politics

49% 67% +$191

Sports

1% 47% +$483

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1,200	$928	88¢	$1.1K	+$134	08-11 14:58
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-3,696	-$336	18¢	$-667	-$331	10-22 15:29
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-700	-$453	89¢	$-623	-$170	04-28 22:56
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-600	-$540	97¢	$-581	-$41	06-25 22:22
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+400	$364	96¢	$386	+$22	09-13 12:37
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-1,322	-$190	15¢	$-192	-$2	08-01 06:38
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	+900	$325	8¢	$76	-$248	10-17 00:48
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	No	+400	$149	9¢	$36	-$113	10-15 12:58
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-699	-$78	4¢	$-31	+$47	05-02 13:40
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+200	$114	2¢	$4	-$111	11-03 03:50
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	-1,400	-$14	0¢	$-3	+$11	09-20 04:39
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+25	$8	8¢	$2	-$6	05-08 23:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	347	$49.0K	166,487	146,758	+19,729	Yes	-$3,456	01-31 07:36
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	16	$9.7K	10,100	0	+10,100	No	+$220	02-19 10:21
netanyahu out by march 31 854	18	$8.6K	4,400	4,400	+0	No	+$169	03-26 10:16
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	21	$7.4K	3,213	5,000	-1,787	Yes	+$840	09-21 12:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$7.2K	3,600	4,400	-800	No	+$298	03-31 14:52
will seguro win all of portugals districts	16	$7.1K	3,834	3,954	-120	Yes	+$690	02-09 06:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	29	$5.5K	2,580	3,744	-1,163	No	+$70	01-25 21:34
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$5.0K	2,872	2,418	+454	Yes	+$27	02-24 09:10
will a minecraft movie be the top grossing movie of 2025	4	$5.0K	0	4,990	-4,990	Yes	-$5	01-01 09:46
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	9	$4.9K	1,500	4,146	-2,646	No	-$269	02-05 13:11
epstein blackmail evidence released by march 31	33	$4.5K	2,707	4,101	-1,394	Yes	-$25	01-31 07:52
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	17	$4.5K	3,300	3,000	+300	Yes	+$4	01-26 08:36
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	73	$4.4K	3,266	10,466	-7,200	No	+$2,001	04-12 08:28
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	36	$4.4K	4,650	0	+4,650	Yes	+$217	09-22 10:27
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	67	$4.0K	4,738	2,960	+1,778	Yes	-$2,261	03-23 13:39
another us government shutdown by february 14	20	$3.8K	3,200	3,200	+0	No	+$277	02-13 18:02
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	7	$3.8K	3,819	0	+3,819	Yes	+$46	01-03 11:55
republican house odds up or down this week	26	$3.7K	6,734	785	+5,949	Up	-$921	02-13 20:11
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	63	$3.7K	5,162	5,850	-687	No	+$1,368	04-10 13:09
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	6	$3.6K	5,300	0	+5,300	No	+$1,711	11-02 21:54
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	13	$3.5K	4,800	1,897	+2,903	Yes	-$346	01-25 22:36
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	93	$3.4K	4,770	10,862	-6,092	No	+$1,441	04-12 16:42
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	19	$3.2K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	+$174	01-31 02:17
will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	10	$3.1K	1,550	1,550	+0	Yes	+$42	04-03 20:22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$3.0K	2,400	600	+1,800	Yes	+$7	04-08 02:13
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	4	$3.0K	0	3,500	-3,500	No	-$534	01-18 11:39
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$2.9K	500	2,593	-2,093	Yes	-$111	06-29 04:45
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	15	$2.8K	12,200	5,900	+6,300	Yes	-$2,371	04-12 20:20
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	23	$2.6K	3,027	5,027	-2,000	No	+$433	11-03 15:13
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	6	$2.5K	4,200	0	+4,200	No	+$1,654	10-15 00:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 18:22:06	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,300	36¢	$835	0xa66bf6…
11-03 18:15:40	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	36¢	$73	0xb62130…
11-03 15:13:25	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,641	20¢	$528	0x8477e2…
11-03 14:54:42	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0x9737f8…
11-03 14:53:37	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0x5d6e8f…
11-03 14:52:28	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xeea80f…
11-03 14:52:00	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x4d4bcf…
11-03 14:50:36	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0x3bef5e…
11-03 14:49:57	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x419611…
11-03 14:48:49	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xa8194d…
11-03 14:42:45	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x892091…
11-03 14:39:07	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	20¢	$7	0x2f0405…
11-03 14:38:28	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x911139…
11-03 14:36:46	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	801	20¢	$160	0xde2f00…
11-03 11:54:31	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1,700	20¢	$340	0x633be3…
11-03 07:34:12	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, Republicans win Kansas, and an independent win Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x48099d…
11-03 03:50:40	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x2e7b79…
11-02 23:59:18	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x148efd…
11-02 22:36:48	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	624	68¢	$424	0xbe508e…
11-02 22:36:31	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	68¢	$408	0x89116d…
11-02 22:25:22	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x4f1e39…
11-02 22:23:19	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	551	68¢	$375	0x04385d…
11-02 21:54:09	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x4301dc…
11-02 21:54:01	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x0f7a98…
11-02 21:35:30	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0x8dfeb4…
11-02 21:04:27	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0x9723a1…
11-02 19:58:27	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0xbb872c…
11-02 11:25:24	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	103	76¢	$78	0xc67ca9…
11-02 11:25:24	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x06b13b…
11-02 10:39:45	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0x9d0f1f…
11-02 10:19:19	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0xca7436…
11-01 18:21:09	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	118	76¢	$90	0xfbf8ee…
11-01 04:54:31	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	47	76¢	$36	0x92f71b…
11-01 04:54:31	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	19	76¢	$15	0x61f7cc…
11-01 04:29:13	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	400	70¢	$280	0x9ad77b…
11-01 02:49:42	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	126	7¢	$9	0xda9024…
11-01 02:33:04	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,300	71¢	$1,633	0xe94ee8…
10-31 17:26:40	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x58bd23…
10-31 17:06:12	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	140	92¢	$129	0x89ef52…
10-31 17:04:51	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0x4d3d31…
10-31 17:01:42	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	73	92¢	$67	0xd84d61…
10-31 09:21:33	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	43	22¢	$9	0xf2cd6c…
10-31 09:21:27	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,357	22¢	$299	0x5584d2…
10-31 09:20:27	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,200	22¢	$264	0xd08aa2…
10-31 09:10:15	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	370	75¢	$278	0xcb7b8f…
10-31 08:13:15	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	23¢	$26	0x8aa76f…
10-31 08:13:04	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	513	23¢	$118	0xf1f83b…
10-31 08:11:12	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x48fa7d…
10-31 08:10:18	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,200	23¢	$276	0x7eac2b…
10-31 08:05:16	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	740	74¢	$548	0x1b1db1…
10-31 07:27:49	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xf4439d…
10-31 07:23:49	Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x5d3a82…
10-31 06:39:42	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	494	67¢	$331	0xe63f04…
10-31 06:38:40	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xb4ca7f…
10-31 06:36:22	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x734d7b…
10-31 06:35:07	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x0a415e…
10-31 06:34:54	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	126	6¢	$8	0xa61ac4…
10-31 05:06:21	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	650	45¢	$293	0xfe8361…
10-30 07:45:51	Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x391eb5…
10-26 20:10:21	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xfb572c…
10-26 20:09:48	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	86¢	$33	0xdd1052…
10-26 20:09:48	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x56bbf2…
10-26 20:09:48	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	86¢	$301	0x22d250…
10-24 21:44:18	Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x00326b…
10-23 22:37:14	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	87¢	$166	0xe8058c…
10-23 22:35:45	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	87¢	$189	0xea6ba1…
10-23 22:35:45	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xe01173…
10-23 22:35:45	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xb50631…
10-23 22:35:45	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	87¢	$45	0x31ba65…
10-23 22:18:27	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	273	87¢	$238	0x3cbdf4…
10-23 22:17:03	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	94	87¢	$82	0x361327…
10-23 22:10:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	63	87¢	$55	0x465d9b…
10-23 22:10:08	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	164	87¢	$142	0x98e3ff…
10-23 22:03:56	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0x13ef2b…
10-23 22:01:36	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	94	87¢	$82	0xc0d8c6…
10-23 21:15:24	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	66	86¢	$57	0x637f62…
10-23 21:11:02	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	234	86¢	$201	0x27a232…
10-22 15:39:08	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	70¢	$420	0xa7fd45…
10-22 15:29:45	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	3,555	9¢	$323	0x84537d…
10-22 15:12:30	Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	29¢	$232	0xc23522…
10-22 15:12:29	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	528	29¢	$153	0x838569…
10-22 15:09:36	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	67	9¢	$6	0x499de4…
10-22 14:21:26	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x36d318…
10-22 14:13:08	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	900	71¢	$639	0xdf843f…
10-22 12:53:03	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	69	9¢	$6	0x255031…
10-21 23:28:17	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	400	67¢	$268	0xa211bd…
10-21 03:31:29	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0xa8c76b…
10-21 02:47:51	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0xb502b8…
10-21 02:47:42	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xcbe07f…
10-21 02:47:00	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x898316…
10-20 23:38:00	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	800	61¢	$488	0xd5f7ad…
10-20 14:12:36	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0xd05bbe…
10-20 12:35:14	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xe954fa…
10-18 18:46:33	Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,200	92¢	$1,103	0xacfd89…
10-18 00:47:39	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x793aa7…
10-17 00:48:39	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	593	36¢	$214	0x933e34…
10-17 00:48:35	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	32	36¢	$12	0xa2ee46…
10-17 00:48:35	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x66e567…
10-17 00:48:35	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0x347534…
10-16 23:06:54	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	237	52¢	$123	0x71d4f5…