Detailed-Poison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$361

Unrealized P&L

+$3.73K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,358

lifetime

Volume

$4.36M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.21K

Open exposure

$81.3K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-30 20:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

53% 50% +$270

Other

40% 100% +$91

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+23,617	$22,545	100¢	$23.6K	+$1,048	06-29 10:35
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-22,075	$-22,286	97¢	$-21368	+$918	07-01 19:38
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+17,965	$15,345	90¢	$16.3K	+$913	06-29 21:15
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	+7,888	$7,336	96¢	$7.5K	+$197	06-01 13:01
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	+15,006	$7,428	50¢	$7.4K	+$8	06-24 21:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+5,866	$4,427	86¢	$5.1K	+$647	06-15 04:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	44	$484.2K	226,209	263,454	-37,244	open	—	05-30 02:18
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	116	$383.1K	225,862	161,707	+64,155	open	—	05-21 15:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$304.0K	305,790	0	+305,790	open	—	06-03 17:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$276.3K	277,400	33	+277,367	open	—	04-08 20:31
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$274.7K	276,324	0	+276,324	open	—	04-01 00:09
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$274.3K	275,450	0	+275,450	open	—	03-14 23:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	141	$272.8K	275,781	662	+275,119	open	—	02-28 16:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$272.2K	273,000	0	+273,000	open	—	04-29 22:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	149	$271.4K	273,290	0	+273,290	open	—	04-23 15:30
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	95	$265.8K	274,815	1,800	+273,015	open	—	01-23 14:47
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	81	$178.9K	180,319	0	+180,319	open	—	05-14 22:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	15	$140.9K	135,160	6,660	+128,500	open	—	06-25 23:26
Trump out as President by June 30?	51	$137.3K	137,893	0	+137,893	open	—	06-23 22:06
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	35	$101.6K	103,254	0	+103,254	open	—	06-15 19:11
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	129	$100.8K	41,771	63,846	-22,075	open	—	07-01 19:38
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$90.9K	91,000	0	+91,000	No	+$91	05-13 01:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$77.2K	77,477	0	+77,477	Yes	+$310	05-09 18:42
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	22	$70.2K	51,759	19,758	+32,001	open	—	05-21 09:03
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	21	$60.1K	29,652	31,883	-2,231	open	—	05-21 06:45
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$56.2K	56,225	0	+56,225	open	—	05-15 02:42
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	24	$52.9K	53,156	0	+53,156	open	—	06-22 05:33
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	11	$31.2K	32,768	0	+32,768	open	—	06-29 10:35
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	27	$29.4K	29,688	0	+29,688	open	—	05-24 00:25
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?	36	$27.7K	28,278	0	+28,278	open	—	05-25 03:35
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	22	$27.2K	9,475	18,000	-8,525	open	—	05-25 03:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$22.7K	14,811	8,149	+6,661	open	—	05-30 06:05
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	7	$20.8K	19,391	19,391	+0	open	—	07-01 20:59
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	38	$17.2K	20,198	0	+20,198	open	—	06-29 21:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$15.7K	12,245	6,379	+5,866	open	—	06-15 04:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	4	$15.1K	2,581	12,581	-10,000	open	—	05-26 01:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 21:39:02	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	4,432	99¢	$4,378	0x1f90fb…
07-01 20:59:28	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	9,391	55¢	$5,165	0x91343a…
07-01 20:56:47	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x9ec427…
07-01 20:56:38	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	372	49¢	$182	0xbcb552…
07-01 20:56:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	9,006	49¢	$4,413	0x769622…
07-01 20:56:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1b0734…
07-01 20:53:20	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10,000	55¢	$5,500	0xcb96e8…
07-01 20:47:40	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10,000	55¢	$5,500	0xa46698…
07-01 20:38:34	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	1,631	99¢	$1,611	0xec18a0…
07-01 19:38:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	7,094	96¢	$6,838	0x609497…
06-30 20:24:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1,496	100¢	$1,493	0x17677c…
06-29 21:15:46	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	491	90¢	$442	0x6dbf19…
06-29 18:59:17	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0xe9caae…
06-29 17:33:32	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x9ad2d6…
06-29 15:24:40	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	170	90¢	$153	0xa61b60…
06-29 15:13:58	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xee9ddc…
06-29 15:11:32	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x24e52a…
06-29 15:10:31	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	9,201	90¢	$8,281	0x96577a…
06-29 10:35:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,805	93¢	$4,488	0x049040…
06-29 09:56:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,195	93¢	$4,852	0xb033b8…
06-29 09:50:40	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	94¢	$945	0x61738b…
06-29 08:44:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	95¢	$181	0x6d8cdd…
06-29 08:38:08	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	296	95¢	$279	0xab8c48…
06-29 08:33:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	361	95¢	$341	0x8ae43c…
06-29 08:28:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,768	95¢	$1,678	0x39d04c…
06-29 08:13:40	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,300	98¢	$8,117	0xb08dfc…
06-29 08:13:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x5cd66c…
06-29 08:12:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,640	98¢	$1,604	0xeff9f0…
06-27 08:51:20	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1,047	100¢	$1,042	0x4e80f8…
06-27 06:06:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	208	99¢	$207	0xea5894…
06-27 06:04:52	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$202	0xc42e2e…
06-27 06:01:44	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	222	99¢	$220	0x2a052d…
06-27 05:50:35	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x19eefb…
06-27 05:33:32	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8b97ac…
06-27 04:22:01	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x05417e…
06-27 03:45:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x8dddd4…
06-27 03:21:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6c114…
06-27 02:32:58	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	342	99¢	$340	0x7f255f…
06-25 23:26:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	10,871	99¢	$10,806	0xd47eb3…
06-25 22:15:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	667	99¢	$663	0x22d62b…
06-25 19:37:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	3,622	99¢	$3,600	0x227c3d…
06-25 18:01:34	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	333	100¢	$332	0x36c859…
06-25 17:58:01	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	278	100¢	$278	0x0d89ba…
06-25 17:55:26	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x38bc6c…
06-25 17:51:28	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe27dfe…
06-25 13:14:13	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xe6574b…
06-25 13:05:47	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc40bbc…
06-25 04:00:23	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	1,472	77¢	$1,134	0x682367…
06-24 21:44:10	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	1,236	77¢	$952	0x2f2ca9…
06-24 21:39:22	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x520d71…
06-24 20:26:28	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x9affcc…
06-24 18:03:10	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	79	50¢	$39	0x5d09e7…
06-24 17:22:56	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x06713b…
06-24 17:21:10	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x96a285…
06-24 16:16:29	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x521415…
06-24 14:23:31	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x23a466…
06-24 14:21:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x5963bf…
06-24 13:53:50	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7a38c7…
06-24 13:11:16	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe64608…
06-24 12:49:25	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7b2c47…
06-24 12:43:43	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	108	85¢	$91	0x262cff…
06-24 12:40:22	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	142	50¢	$70	0x6c4b79…
06-24 12:01:53	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x043009…
06-24 11:59:47	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3ef85c…
06-24 11:56:28	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	882	50¢	$437	0x2235da…
06-24 11:40:22	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc91441…
06-24 11:25:46	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xbd2f2c…
06-24 11:12:49	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xbb5746…
06-24 10:30:31	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xb63958…
06-24 07:38:41	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdc58ce…
06-24 06:31:40	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	218	50¢	$108	0x8186d2…
06-24 06:26:58	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	198	50¢	$98	0xeb5fcf…
06-24 05:23:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xc219bc…
06-24 03:49:05	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	1,922	50¢	$952	0x470f0d…
06-24 03:42:08	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x696ead…
06-24 03:30:47	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf01239…
06-24 03:23:50	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x36e191…
06-24 03:23:11	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd3342c…
06-24 02:37:13	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x319142…
06-24 02:31:40	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	396	50¢	$196	0xccaedd…
06-24 02:27:53	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6a6c9c…
06-24 02:13:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	178	50¢	$88	0x713e3b…
06-24 02:12:29	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb8882b…
06-24 02:09:46	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa27562…
06-24 02:08:40	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6cc1e5…
06-24 01:55:41	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x737039…
06-24 01:54:55	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb59e08…
06-24 01:53:44	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	99	50¢	$49	0x29457e…
06-24 01:52:55	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x786267…
06-24 01:49:04	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	92	50¢	$45	0xad643a…
06-24 01:15:08	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x03a19e…
06-24 00:58:44	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$99	0xcd7875…
06-24 00:46:14	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5e19cf…
06-24 00:31:13	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0xd630c4…
06-24 00:27:07	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	109	50¢	$54	0xf0fe20…
06-23 23:50:55	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x876310…
06-23 23:29:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	30,000	99¢	$29,760	0xf2e4df…
06-23 22:06:28	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe25c45…
06-23 21:46:35	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x64c339…
06-23 21:16:28	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x84c607…