Detailed-Poison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$21.3K

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,906

lifetime

Volume

$8.41M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.90K

Open exposure

$496.7K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-26 23:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

50% 87% +$14,088

Politics

46% 88% +$19,450

Crypto

4% 100% +$1,835

Tech

0% 100% +$80

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+215,753	$167,699	83¢	$179.1K	+$11,376	10-19 06:42
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+135,009	$121,247	95¢	$127.9K	+$6,606	10-25 14:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+83,383	$77,510	94¢	$78.4K	+$871	10-26 23:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+59,938	$57,820	96¢	$57.6K	-$249	10-12 06:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+30,646	$28,501	94¢	$29.0K	+$460	10-26 14:58
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	+25,594	$25,138	97¢	$24.9K	-$248	10-23 23:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	+0	-$308	100¢	$0	+$308	10-26 19:26
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+0	-$2,193	98¢	$0	+$2,193	07-01 19:38
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+0	-$7	55¢	$0	+$7	05-28 12:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	138	$1.29M	920,392	704,639	+215,753	open	—	10-19 06:42
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	59	$546.3K	275,722	275,722	+0	No	+$3,332	09-14 21:40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	45	$491.3K	233,454	263,454	-30,000	Yes	+$5,050	05-30 02:18
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	116	$383.1K	225,862	161,707	+64,155	No	+$1,408	05-21 15:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	143	$332.3K	289,676	45,748	+243,928	No	+$3,020	09-30 19:58
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$304.0K	305,790	0	+305,790	No	+$1,835	06-03 17:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$276.3K	277,400	33	+277,367	Yes	+$1,110	04-08 20:31
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$274.7K	276,324	0	+276,324	No	+$1,576	04-01 00:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$274.5K	277,006	0	+277,006	No	+$2,493	09-14 21:41
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$274.3K	275,450	0	+275,450	Yes	+$1,102	03-14 23:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	141	$272.8K	275,781	662	+275,119	No	+$3,559	02-28 16:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$272.2K	273,000	0	+273,000	No	+$819	04-29 22:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	149	$271.4K	273,290	0	+273,290	Yes	+$1,913	04-23 15:30
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	95	$265.8K	274,815	1,800	+273,015	Yes	+$10,724	01-23 14:47
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	81	$178.9K	180,319	0	+180,319	No	+$1,389	05-14 22:24
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	111	$171.8K	175,089	0	+175,089	No	+$3,317	07-30 05:54
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	44	$162.4K	273,649	2,122	+271,527	Yes	-$4,068	07-25 18:51
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	72	$157.5K	79,314	79,314	+0	open	—	10-26 19:26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	7	$149.0K	150,000	0	+150,000	No	+$950	06-07 22:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	17	$147.3K	141,819	6,660	+135,160	No	+$790	06-25 23:26
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	361	$142.0K	145,741	10,732	+135,009	open	—	10-25 14:42
Trump out as President by June 30?	51	$137.3K	137,893	0	+137,893	No	+$552	06-23 22:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	30	$132.3K	133,229	0	+133,229	No	+$920	07-28 07:08
new stranger things episode released by july 31	53	$129.7K	65,230	65,230	+0	No	+$510	07-28 02:53
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	157	$121.9K	64,341	64,341	+0	open	—	07-01 19:38
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	41	$103.1K	104,775	0	+104,775	No	+$1,670	06-15 19:11
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$90.9K	91,000	0	+91,000	No	+$91	05-13 01:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	38	$77.5K	83,383	0	+83,383	open	—	10-26 23:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$77.2K	77,477	0	+77,477	Yes	+$310	05-09 18:42
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	12	$77.1K	77,999	0	+77,999	No	+$870	06-15 13:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:13:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,090	93¢	$5,670	0x839a59…
10-26 23:02:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	93¢	$466	0x0618e9…
10-26 23:01:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x05ff21…
10-26 22:59:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x71f6f8…
10-26 22:59:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0x0fff90…
10-26 22:58:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0xf8d542…
10-26 22:56:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0x8d6d32…
10-26 22:53:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	142	93¢	$132	0xb7438d…
10-26 22:27:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23,330	93¢	$21,720	0x7ab93a…
10-26 21:19:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x2a52a6…
10-26 21:16:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xf88d63…
10-26 21:14:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20,000	93¢	$18,540	0xe8779a…
10-26 21:08:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	66	93¢	$61	0xaddbc2…
10-26 21:04:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	757	93¢	$702	0x799fd0…
10-26 21:01:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	93¢	$26	0x29e73c…
10-26 21:01:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xe22668…
10-26 21:00:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	93¢	$61	0xd5d8f8…
10-26 20:59:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x081011…
10-26 20:58:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	310	93¢	$287	0xfb3129…
10-26 20:58:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	49	93¢	$45	0x6ac49d…
10-26 20:57:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x57edcc…
10-26 20:57:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x2501b3…
10-26 20:57:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x8caeef…
10-26 20:57:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0x53ebfb…
10-26 20:57:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$185	0x44e8fe…
10-26 20:57:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x401b26…
10-26 20:57:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xa20556…
10-26 20:57:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x64ed9b…
10-26 20:57:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x5fb714…
10-26 20:57:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xf73b18…
10-26 20:57:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xecf1ad…
10-26 20:57:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x29f349…
10-26 20:56:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xab2877…
10-26 20:56:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xa476bd…
10-26 20:56:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	59	93¢	$55	0x6e6a7d…
10-26 20:56:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	93¢	$464	0x62058e…
10-26 20:56:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0x06acb6…
10-26 19:26:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	6,921	100¢	$6,887	0xa8c235…
10-26 19:24:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	31,817	100¢	$31,658	0x20a77d…
10-26 19:10:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	4,796	100¢	$4,772	0xd6a0a6…
10-26 19:09:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	1,299	100¢	$1,293	0x37c4e9…
10-26 18:49:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x7079c7…
10-26 18:35:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	175	99¢	$174	0x8750dc…
10-26 16:50:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9e522d…
10-26 14:58:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30,646	93¢	$28,501	0x891d2a…
10-26 14:48:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30,646	93¢	$28,501	0x6f6b82…
10-26 14:37:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	341	100¢	$340	0xa69d6b…
10-26 14:33:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	401	100¢	$399	0x7df46d…
10-26 14:32:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	3,624	100¢	$3,606	0x9236cc…
10-26 14:32:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	27,180	100¢	$27,044	0xfc0626…
10-26 09:40:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0x88c3a1…
10-26 09:40:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0x9f2788…
10-26 09:32:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xdb5c6d…
10-26 09:32:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x435b43…
10-26 09:31:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x681551…
10-26 09:31:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x2c2778…
10-26 09:25:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xe3c486…
10-26 09:25:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xe123e9…
10-26 09:24:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xd2e89c…
10-26 09:22:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x2ba227…
10-26 09:22:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xdd2291…
10-26 09:16:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xb8fa0a…
10-26 09:16:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x778de6…
10-26 09:15:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x7299dc…
10-26 09:14:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x63390e…
10-26 09:13:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x323263…
10-26 09:07:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$14	0x04ed5f…
10-26 09:07:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x0b31f6…
10-26 08:59:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x95c8f2…
10-26 08:59:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x89eba5…
10-26 08:53:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x81b950…
10-26 08:53:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xcd2a5d…
10-26 08:52:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xd62cf1…
10-26 08:49:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x60dfba…
10-26 08:49:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x80e391…
10-26 08:36:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x3b8b83…
10-26 08:34:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9a4406…
10-26 08:33:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x747f8e…
10-26 08:33:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xb602db…
10-26 08:27:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0x50f8b8…
10-26 08:26:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x91cc38…
10-26 08:26:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x6660cb…
10-26 08:25:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x4c4e03…
10-26 06:08:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x274f0a…
10-26 05:19:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xc117b8…
10-25 23:53:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1da7e1…
10-25 22:09:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	402	100¢	$400	0x788941…
10-25 14:42:11	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x574fdd…
10-25 11:42:15	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	145	97¢	$141	0xa9b310…
10-25 08:10:59	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc9ed65…
10-25 07:22:56	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x443284…
10-24 23:19:21	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$4	0x87915e…
10-24 23:00:15	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	SELL	7,471	98¢	$7,321	0xc689f4…
10-24 16:19:30	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	10,000	97¢	$9,670	0xea2f64…
10-24 13:03:53	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0x7408ae…
10-24 12:33:44	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	301	97¢	$291	0x484a4a…
10-23 23:06:44	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	401	98¢	$393	0xa5ba63…
10-22 18:55:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xfd96ae…
10-22 18:03:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7410cd…
10-22 15:14:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	502	100¢	$500	0xafedbb…