Detailed-Poison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$361

Unrealized P&L

+$2.35K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,731

lifetime

Volume

$4.77M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.76K

Open exposure

$86.3K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 07-22 12:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

53% 50% +$270

Other

40% 100% +$91

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+24,381	$21,072	90¢	$21.9K	+$872	07-13 17:31
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-22,075	$-22,286	96¢	$-21269	+$1,017	07-01 19:38
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	+40,131	$19,889	50¢	$20.0K	+$117	07-17 10:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+21,686	$15,358	72¢	$15.5K	+$148	07-20 20:05
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	+7,888	$7,336	96¢	$7.5K	+$197	06-01 13:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	44	$484.2K	226,209	263,454	-37,244	open	—	05-30 02:18
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	116	$383.1K	225,862	161,707	+64,155	open	—	05-21 15:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$304.0K	305,790	0	+305,790	open	—	06-03 17:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$276.3K	277,400	33	+277,367	open	—	04-08 20:31
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$274.7K	276,324	0	+276,324	open	—	04-01 00:09
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$274.3K	275,450	0	+275,450	open	—	03-14 23:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	141	$272.8K	275,781	662	+275,119	open	—	02-28 16:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$272.2K	273,000	0	+273,000	open	—	04-29 22:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	149	$271.4K	273,290	0	+273,290	open	—	04-23 15:30
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	95	$265.8K	274,815	1,800	+273,015	open	—	01-23 14:47
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	81	$178.9K	180,319	0	+180,319	open	—	05-14 22:24
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	106	$164.6K	167,902	0	+167,902	open	—	07-19 02:51
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	15	$140.9K	135,160	6,660	+128,500	open	—	06-25 23:26
Trump out as President by June 30?	51	$137.3K	137,893	0	+137,893	open	—	06-23 22:06
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	35	$101.6K	103,254	0	+103,254	open	—	06-15 19:11
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	129	$100.8K	41,771	63,846	-22,075	open	—	07-01 19:38
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$90.9K	91,000	0	+91,000	No	+$91	05-13 01:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$77.2K	77,477	0	+77,477	Yes	+$310	05-09 18:42
new stranger things episode released by july 31	24	$74.7K	65,230	10,151	+55,078	open	—	07-22 12:47
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	22	$70.2K	51,759	19,758	+32,001	open	—	05-21 09:03
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	21	$60.1K	29,652	31,883	-2,231	open	—	05-21 06:45
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$56.2K	56,225	0	+56,225	open	—	05-15 02:42
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	24	$52.9K	53,156	0	+53,156	open	—	06-22 05:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	16	$48.6K	43,165	21,478	+21,686	open	—	07-20 20:05
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	22	$45.8K	48,650	0	+48,650	open	—	07-13 04:18
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	11	$31.2K	32,768	0	+32,768	open	—	06-29 10:35
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	27	$29.4K	29,688	0	+29,688	open	—	05-24 00:25
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?	36	$27.7K	28,278	0	+28,278	open	—	05-25 03:35
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	22	$27.2K	9,475	18,000	-8,525	open	—	05-25 03:01
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	57	$22.9K	26,615	0	+26,615	open	—	07-13 17:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 12:47:30	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x01bdf9…
07-22 11:03:21	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x34b989…
07-20 20:05:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xad8a9f…
07-20 20:05:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	13,000	73¢	$9,490	0x6d9588…
07-20 20:03:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x8c4284…
07-20 19:59:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	73¢	$365	0x279532…
07-20 19:40:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	56	73¢	$41	0x6dcfd5…
07-20 19:40:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	65	73¢	$48	0x698a21…
07-20 19:37:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x89aa1c…
07-20 19:35:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xccff5f…
07-20 19:35:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,451	73¢	$1,059	0x674a3b…
07-20 07:41:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	30,920	71¢	$21,953	0x1e17b0…
07-19 02:51:45	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2,088	99¢	$2,067	0x2d2c77…
07-17 12:54:27	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x25533e…
07-17 12:54:24	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x112c3e…
07-17 10:40:58	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe724a6…
07-17 10:25:25	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd83a9c…
07-17 10:20:33	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3a3dad…
07-17 09:26:40	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x294c04…
07-17 08:49:48	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3,304	50¢	$1,639	0x1b8083…
07-17 08:03:45	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0xa744e2…
07-17 07:57:30	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x212250…
07-17 07:41:49	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xb080d0…
07-17 06:56:51	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x16adec…
07-17 04:10:24	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x13f957…
07-16 23:15:02	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1a0295…
07-16 22:37:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe8cb34…
07-16 21:56:05	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x0ec86a…
07-16 21:53:31	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x81732d…
07-16 20:02:41	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x000e0a…
07-16 19:46:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4,444	50¢	$2,204	0x245f36…
07-16 19:31:41	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x53e10c…
07-16 19:30:20	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0xd45ccc…
07-16 18:59:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x36c7c8…
07-16 18:53:50	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x613fbb…
07-16 18:34:29	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf182f6…
07-16 16:58:38	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x9586da…
07-16 16:08:52	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xd33196…
07-16 15:54:13	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0xdf306d…
07-16 15:52:35	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4751fd…
07-16 15:51:29	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	23	50¢	$11	0xca8883…
07-16 14:39:26	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	186	50¢	$92	0x1030a6…
07-16 13:24:25	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xb2372d…
07-16 11:38:13	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x83ce87…
07-16 11:11:08	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6348ec…
07-16 10:55:14	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x2a897a…
07-16 10:08:19	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xbcac94…
07-16 06:56:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xa43f9f…
07-16 05:13:56	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x3a17f5…
07-16 04:45:04	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	29	50¢	$15	0xe3b847…
07-16 00:27:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	78	50¢	$39	0xe91b97…
07-16 00:14:10	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe56721…
07-15 23:58:22	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x059ea5…
07-15 23:03:43	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe4217e…
07-15 22:27:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x92a02f…
07-15 21:13:26	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xde37e9…
07-15 21:12:46	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	992	50¢	$492	0x959516…
07-15 20:04:11	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x2e9800…
07-15 19:38:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x98f3da…
07-15 19:33:10	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x760826…
07-15 17:51:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x46a58d…
07-15 17:25:29	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xde0b77…
07-15 17:00:44	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	1,959	50¢	$972	0x82b638…
07-15 13:45:28	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	184	50¢	$91	0xb58878…
07-15 13:44:43	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	43	50¢	$21	0x4069dd…
07-15 12:45:13	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	182	50¢	$90	0xb9e237…
07-15 12:44:01	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	119	50¢	$59	0xb80aeb…
07-15 10:44:08	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x049dfc…
07-15 08:59:37	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	27	50¢	$13	0xb8b598…
07-15 07:55:50	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x22a719…
07-15 07:50:37	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x870ed5…
07-15 07:31:19	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x10cc61…
07-15 07:26:59	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	53	50¢	$26	0xd22f0c…
07-15 06:34:04	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	99	50¢	$49	0xb00c7f…
07-15 05:59:08	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	90	50¢	$45	0x19b37f…
07-15 05:58:35	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	95	50¢	$47	0x59417a…
07-15 05:58:05	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x42b595…
07-15 05:57:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	105	50¢	$52	0x26d91f…
07-15 05:56:58	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	110	50¢	$55	0x1858d1…
07-15 05:56:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	115	50¢	$57	0x33e6e7…
07-15 05:55:56	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x54db94…
07-15 05:55:22	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	130	50¢	$64	0x3e01ae…
07-15 05:54:46	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	135	50¢	$67	0x0ab54d…
07-15 05:54:05	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	140	50¢	$69	0x0ff13f…
07-15 05:53:32	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	150	50¢	$74	0xa4fca1…
07-15 05:52:56	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	155	50¢	$77	0xf6d1ba…
07-15 05:52:20	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	165	50¢	$82	0xe381df…
07-15 05:51:49	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	170	50¢	$84	0xcd3098…
07-15 05:51:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	180	50¢	$89	0x07d6f7…
07-15 05:50:44	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	190	50¢	$94	0x432cb7…
07-15 05:50:11	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	195	50¢	$97	0x32240d…
07-15 00:47:28	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x1d4e32…
07-15 00:33:41	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	17	50¢	$9	0x5c67e9…
07-14 23:37:07	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xa085c1…
07-14 20:16:41	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x33b826…
07-14 19:58:31	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	159	50¢	$79	0x832a3a…
07-14 17:56:49	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0edbf7…
07-14 16:20:29	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	595	50¢	$295	0x0dc469…
07-14 15:54:29	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8384e8…
07-14 15:00:34	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x83e53e…