Detailed-Poison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$361

Unrealized P&L

+$980

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

985

lifetime

Volume

$3.87M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.93K

Open exposure

$112.2K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-09 21:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

56% 50% +$270

Other

37% 100% +$91

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	+58,076	$56,927	99¢	$57.7K	+$742	06-07 12:32
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+41,771	$39,261	95¢	$39.5K	+$233	06-07 20:42
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	+7,888	$7,336	94¢	$7.5K	+$118	06-01 13:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	-6,660	$-6,445	99¢	$-6596	$-151	05-28 21:40
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+1,301	$964	77¢	$1.0K	+$38	06-09 21:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	44	$484.2K	226,209	263,454	-37,244	open	—	05-30 02:18
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	116	$383.1K	225,862	161,707	+64,155	open	—	05-21 15:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$304.0K	305,790	0	+305,790	open	—	06-03 17:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$276.3K	277,400	33	+277,367	open	—	04-08 20:31
netanyahu out by march 31 854	7	$274.7K	276,324	0	+276,324	open	—	04-01 00:09
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	86	$274.3K	275,450	0	+275,450	open	—	03-14 23:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	141	$272.8K	275,781	662	+275,119	open	—	02-28 16:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$272.2K	273,000	0	+273,000	open	—	04-29 22:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	149	$271.4K	273,290	0	+273,290	open	—	04-23 15:30
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	95	$265.8K	274,815	1,800	+273,015	open	—	01-23 14:47
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	81	$178.9K	180,319	0	+180,319	open	—	05-14 22:24
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$90.9K	91,000	0	+91,000	No	+$91	05-13 01:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$77.2K	77,477	0	+77,477	Yes	+$310	05-09 18:42
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	19	$74.6K	76,143	0	+76,143	open	—	06-07 12:32
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	22	$70.2K	51,759	19,758	+32,001	open	—	05-21 09:03
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	21	$60.1K	29,652	31,883	-2,231	open	—	05-21 06:45
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$56.2K	56,225	0	+56,225	open	—	05-15 02:42
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	26	$39.3K	41,771	0	+41,771	open	—	06-07 20:42
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	27	$29.4K	29,688	0	+29,688	open	—	05-24 00:25
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask?	36	$27.7K	28,278	0	+28,278	open	—	05-25 03:35
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	22	$27.2K	9,475	18,000	-8,525	open	—	05-25 03:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$22.7K	14,811	8,149	+6,661	open	—	05-30 06:05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	4	$15.1K	2,581	12,581	-10,000	open	—	05-26 01:30
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	9	$7.3K	7,888	0	+7,888	open	—	06-01 13:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$6.4K	0	6,660	-6,660	open	—	05-28 21:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$2.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	05-14 20:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$1.5K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	06-09 16:40
joe rogan confirmed 60 minutes correspondent by june 30	4	$997	1,050	0	+1,050	open	—	06-05 09:39
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	6	$964	1,301	0	+1,301	open	—	06-09 21:24
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	2	$427	431	0	+431	open	—	05-16 06:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 21:24:15	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	286	71¢	$203	0xd012d5…
06-09 20:07:22	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	546	75¢	$410	0x707b8b…
06-09 20:06:24	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0x9ebf87…
06-09 16:52:51	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	146	75¢	$110	0xa34fa7…
06-09 16:40:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	10,000	7¢	$700	0x45f7fc…
06-09 16:38:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10,000	8¢	$800	0x90d99f…
06-09 11:40:37	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x5e30cd…
06-07 20:42:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xfb505c…
06-07 20:42:06	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6982d3…
06-07 20:42:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	372	94¢	$350	0xb2783d…
06-07 20:41:42	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x11333d…
06-07 19:19:45	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$20	0x976c2e…
06-07 19:18:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x02358d…
06-07 19:16:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x364fd7…
06-07 19:05:57	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x29881e…
06-07 18:26:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x236d1e…
06-07 18:15:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x45e19c…
06-07 18:12:34	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x4fc731…
06-07 16:47:58	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xa14fcb…
06-07 16:14:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	68	94¢	$64	0xd884b2…
06-07 16:13:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	40,668	94¢	$38,228	0xaa4769…
06-07 12:32:58	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	98¢	$4,900	0xda788e…
06-07 07:13:22	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xc1eba8…
06-07 02:53:06	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	5,688	98¢	$5,574	0x282f3b…
06-07 02:50:58	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	2,244	98¢	$2,199	0x0e344d…
06-05 21:06:18	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	15,453	98¢	$15,144	0xbf8346…
06-05 09:39:25	joe rogan confirmed 60 minutes correspondent by june 30	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xc20170…
06-05 06:54:00	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x25b49b…
06-05 06:38:24	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x525b78…
06-05 05:01:27	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x4cdc76…
06-05 04:49:06	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	114	98¢	$111	0x82edd8…
06-05 04:48:34	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	195	98¢	$191	0x957ef9…
06-04 20:02:25	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1,951	98¢	$1,912	0xe59ba3…
06-04 19:40:55	joe rogan confirmed 60 minutes correspondent by june 30	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xa55bfc…
06-04 19:30:49	joe rogan confirmed 60 minutes correspondent by june 30	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0xed1e42…
06-04 19:16:16	joe rogan confirmed 60 minutes correspondent by june 30	No	BUY	22	88¢	$19	0xc51133…
06-04 05:46:39	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	20,000	98¢	$19,620	0x1872fc…
06-04 03:33:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x0eab29…
06-04 03:19:33	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x10bd71…
06-04 02:20:18	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x96b0ff…
06-04 02:19:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0x231fb1…
06-04 02:19:07	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x503e8d…
06-04 02:18:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xd12720…
06-04 02:18:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x30d8c8…
06-04 02:03:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x7b039a…
06-04 01:33:15	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb6abaa…
06-04 01:15:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0x5ff1bd…
06-04 00:58:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	62	93¢	$58	0x8a7d29…
06-04 00:53:42	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	206	93¢	$192	0x0ca6da…
06-03 17:34:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe46622…
06-02 00:44:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xd8f331…
06-01 21:43:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x5c6a55…
06-01 21:38:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	305,669	99¢	$303,835	0x98b71a…
06-01 13:01:56	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	44	93¢	$41	0x2fb321…
06-01 10:30:06	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x2a686b…
06-01 09:16:45	New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31?	No	BUY	310	100¢	$310	0x310d42…
06-01 08:31:48	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9e86d9…
06-01 03:50:29	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xbdbf51…
05-31 23:39:09	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	5,492	98¢	$5,377	0x02f671…
05-31 21:46:40	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x73b1e7…
05-31 21:46:40	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x5e830f…
05-31 19:31:02	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0xf225c0…
05-31 19:03:20	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1,548	98¢	$1,516	0xb7b5ba…
05-31 07:11:59	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	157	93¢	$146	0x1adca8…
05-31 01:51:37	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0d8558…
05-31 00:52:12	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x958732…
05-31 00:10:44	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	51	93¢	$47	0x8e8c8a…
05-30 22:08:05	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	7,594	93¢	$7,063	0xf4c9a1…
05-30 06:05:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	1,667	100¢	$1,662	0x472c3b…
05-30 04:44:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0xce893f…
05-30 04:40:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0xe4828f…
05-30 04:40:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x326681…
05-30 04:40:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xdf55a2…
05-30 02:18:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	64,122	100¢	$64,058	0x44c5f9…
05-30 02:15:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x5a96ff…
05-30 02:03:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdc24c7…
05-30 01:58:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,510	100¢	$1,508	0x578724…
05-30 01:48:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	197,750	100¢	$197,553	0xeb4c3c…
05-28 22:52:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	3,614	100¢	$3,603	0x93fe91…
05-28 22:51:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x199b8c…
05-28 21:40:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	8,149	100¢	$8,125	0x9cc76f…
05-28 21:40:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	6,660	97¢	$6,445	0x585cf8…
05-26 02:19:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	12,442	98¢	$12,205	0x6387a7…
05-26 02:13:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	370	98¢	$363	0xfc1941…
05-26 01:30:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	SELL	1,157	100¢	$1,156	0x5e2406…
05-26 01:29:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	SELL	10,424	100¢	$10,414	0xd60bca…
05-26 01:29:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0x51e0d1…
05-26 01:14:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	No	BUY	2,581	98¢	$2,532	0x75ac8d…
05-26 00:51:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	20,000	98¢	$19,500	0x6901bf…
05-26 00:51:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	10,000	98¢	$9,790	0x949208…
05-26 00:40:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	10,000	98¢	$9,770	0x1dc44d…
05-26 00:37:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	10,000	98¢	$9,810	0x0cf409…
05-26 00:36:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	10,000	98¢	$9,810	0x35ff75…
05-26 00:35:55	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	341	98¢	$335	0x185c07…
05-26 00:35:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	9,659	98¢	$9,465	0x2e8cf2…
05-26 00:32:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	19,780	98¢	$19,384	0x0c7c54…
05-26 00:32:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x9d1737…
05-26 00:32:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	20,015	98¢	$19,694	0xc4e032…
05-26 00:32:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	188	98¢	$184	0xa5b675…
05-26 00:32:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	20,000	99¢	$19,720	0xd2df8a…