Sardonic-Reindeer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

37.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,991

lifetime

Volume

$5.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$25

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 07-22 13:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

59% 46% $-26

Politics

27% 0% $-2

Sports

14% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-22	$-10	66¢	$-15	$-4	07-15 18:33
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+7	$4	66¢	$4	+$0	06-22 16:23
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	No	+5	$4	76¢	$4	$-0	06-22 14:12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+11	$3	22¢	$2	$-1	06-16 16:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
atp medvede berrett 2026 04 08	198	$857	654	641	+13	open	—	04-08 11:58
nhl fla ott 2026 04 09	100	$100	416	0	+416	open	—	04-09 22:08
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$76	73	73	+0	open	—	06-14 10:41
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	4	$73	57	57	+0	open	—	04-16 13:24
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	2	$72	43	43	+0	open	—	06-14 23:37
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	4	$68	51	51	+0	open	—	06-04 02:29
mlb bal cle 2026 04 16 total 8pt5	2	$68	43	43	+1	open	—	04-17 00:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	38	$65	52	51	+1	open	—	07-13 12:08
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	4	$63	35	35	+0	open	—	06-22 06:23
elc por ips 2026 01 04 total 1pt5	2	$59	34	34	+0	open	—	04-14 20:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	15	$57	38	37	+1	open	—	04-15 19:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	32	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	04-15 19:10
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	25	$49	35	28	+6	open	—	06-15 16:13
dota2 xtreme aur1 2026 04 19	4	$48	40	39	+1	open	—	04-19 09:57
lol gx navi 2026 04 18	2	$46	32	31	+1	open	—	04-18 18:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	38	$42	27	27	+0	open	—	04-21 15:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	41	$40	56	56	+0	open	—	04-18 09:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$39	25	25	+0	Yes	$-1	05-08 18:12
lol bro2 kt 2026 04 12 game handicap home 1pt5	2	$39	25	24	+0	open	—	04-12 11:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	68	$36	45	44	+0	open	—	05-28 14:11
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	7	$35	34	34	+0	No	+$5	05-11 18:14
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	3	$34	28	28	+0	open	—	06-14 20:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	10	$33	29	19	+10	open	—	05-29 18:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	3	$33	22	22	+0	open	—	04-18 09:37
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	11	$33	57	56	+2	open	—	04-18 09:37
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$33	19	19	+0	open	—	05-07 17:44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	20	$32	39	39	+0	open	—	06-18 06:50
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	3	$31	21	21	+0	open	—	04-16 07:42
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	7	$30	31	31	+0	open	—	06-17 09:03
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$30	18	18	+0	open	—	04-27 10:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 13:17:21	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x4e4991…
07-22 11:42:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xeaee71…
07-22 10:45:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xff06f7…
07-21 02:57:15	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x13b450…
07-20 12:02:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x8e36a1…
07-20 12:00:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0xee90de…
07-20 10:50:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x3cfe7e…
07-20 10:28:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb245af…
07-19 23:54:57	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xcaf4cf…
07-19 18:57:36	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0x9e720f…
07-19 18:56:55	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xcad4b5…
07-19 18:56:22	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xc2e950…
07-19 12:10:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xb4e3b4…
07-18 23:23:54	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0x6d2d37…
07-18 23:23:49	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x10b835…
07-18 21:05:40	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x592992…
07-18 19:09:04	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	9	61¢	$5	0x47b253…
07-18 17:40:25	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x4c2f0d…
07-18 17:21:16	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x07ae7e…
07-18 15:56:43	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x0a58bc…
07-18 00:44:00	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xe63045…
07-16 20:27:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa0367f…
07-16 05:54:37	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd6668e…
07-16 05:54:37	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x45cd81…
07-16 05:54:32	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xf91e54…
07-15 20:00:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x36b47a…
07-15 19:10:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x647d59…
07-15 18:33:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9549ee…
07-15 18:06:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x2f6ef6…
07-15 17:39:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x964368…
07-15 15:30:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x04e4bd…
07-15 13:24:53	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x50336a…
07-15 07:59:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x57c758…
07-15 02:36:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x41d9c9…
07-14 20:17:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0xc9dda5…
07-14 20:16:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x8a342d…
07-14 17:52:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xdb1f11…
07-14 13:35:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf0a4f0…
07-13 19:22:38	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x88dec2…
07-13 15:45:26	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xfd2c14…
07-13 15:42:34	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x84e9f1…
07-13 15:33:10	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x942303…
07-13 14:45:19	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0x4151bc…
07-13 14:32:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xac1281…
07-13 14:31:38	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xfefba3…
07-13 13:33:37	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdd20fc…
07-13 12:36:56	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x73d389…
07-13 12:08:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xdf0234…
07-13 11:52:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x11f609…
07-13 08:25:02	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xe0fad7…
07-13 06:34:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xe7cf89…
07-13 06:05:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x5be125…
07-13 05:10:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x4e679b…
07-13 01:01:40	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x4fc099…
07-12 20:10:49	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x92ec39…
07-12 18:18:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x12b22c…
07-12 18:18:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xceb3e5…
07-12 18:08:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xe22472…
07-12 15:34:32	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xf0ff91…
07-12 14:55:52	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x905b8e…
07-12 10:40:53	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x1716b7…
07-12 09:25:26	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x1d8886…
07-11 23:14:20	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x17d94f…
07-11 21:08:58	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x415acb…
07-11 15:42:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xb69c71…
07-11 15:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x72b6e1…
07-11 15:33:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x4b6319…
07-11 11:17:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x6d7e01…
07-11 11:12:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xe6f648…
07-11 11:07:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x2857cd…
07-11 10:22:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xbd969c…
07-11 10:22:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x6d181f…
07-11 10:22:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	1	80¢	$0	0x0816e4…
07-11 09:19:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xc99bb5…
07-11 08:23:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xe83464…
07-11 07:16:41	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0x495bdd…
07-11 07:06:35	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x71b298…
07-11 06:39:47	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xa93986…
07-11 06:19:32	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	No	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x14023c…
07-11 05:28:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x6b64dd…
07-11 05:28:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x7f73a6…
07-11 04:12:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x2532f2…
07-11 04:01:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xad298c…
07-11 03:13:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x6268b4…
07-11 02:32:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x836ce9…
07-11 02:16:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0x92ae94…
07-11 02:13:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x8640cc…
07-10 18:56:37	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x472052…
07-10 13:57:04	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x256e14…
07-09 20:25:58	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x793c83…
07-09 18:50:58	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xcf613b…
07-09 18:44:35	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x2e38b6…
07-09 17:43:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0x0f28d1…
07-09 13:09:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x3f04b3…
07-09 13:06:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x207253…
07-09 13:05:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0xfbcc6f…
07-09 12:30:35	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbb04cc…
07-09 11:48:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x3ac2fc…
07-08 20:10:47	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0xa105e1…
07-08 19:48:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x0379d0…