Incredible-Capability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$119

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

10.8%

Resolved

Trades

831

lifetime

Volume

$38.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

$24

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-07 15:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

50% 25% $-121

Politics

33% 100% +$3

Crypto

15% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No		-30	$-25	82¢	$-24	+$0	07-07 15:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	66	$4.2K	2,682	3,354	-671	open	—	03-27 10:07
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	29	$1.9K	1,338	1,738	-400	open	—	04-09 18:34
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	27	$1.8K	960	955	+5	open	—	03-26 14:59
will the us invade iran by march 31	6	$1.7K	782	1,182	-400	open	—	03-22 22:49
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	9	$1.6K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-14 16:41
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	44	$1.5K	1,154	1,604	-450	open	—	03-20 11:02
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	24	$1.5K	779	712	+67	open	—	02-13 02:21
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$1.3K	860	1,220	-360	open	—	03-25 15:48
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?	32	$1.3K	645	645	+0	open	—	02-27 08:39
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$1.3K	880	880	+0	open	—	03-22 16:55
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 432	7	$1.1K	590	590	+0	open	—	03-22 10:06
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	5	$1.1K	400	800	-400	open	—	03-16 16:41
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?	12	$907	470	470	+0	open	—	03-30 11:01
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	6	$879	560	560	+0	open	—	03-30 17:13
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	13	$859	750	744	+6	Gentle Mates	$-118	05-10 07:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	6	$826	330	530	-200	open	—	03-05 18:17
spx up or down on march 9 2026	14	$762	500	490	+10	open	—	03-09 16:32
elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 115 139	9	$752	238	538	-300	open	—	03-09 15:57
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	27	$727	678	877	-199	open	—	03-05 22:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	14	$620	348	410	-62	open	—	03-05 21:20
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	10	$574	310	310	+0	open	—	03-06 18:27
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	15	$560	214	374	-160	open	—	04-27 15:54
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 400 419	8	$461	250	222	+28	open	—	03-13 14:41
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	2	$452	400	400	+0	open	—	03-22 16:53
will laguardia airport lga be open to departures by 600 pm et on march 23 2026	7	$445	374	160	+214	open	—	03-23 18:32
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	6	$430	245	245	+0	open	—	04-10 06:31
will laguardia airport lga be open to departures by 200 pm et on march 23 2026	4	$426	211	681	-470	open	—	03-23 18:32
will mrbeasts latest video get between 39 and 41 million views on week 1	10	$366	250	250	+0	open	—	02-27 18:44
cs2 b8 navi 2026 04 13	4	$365	256	256	+0	open	—	04-13 19:26
us forces enter iran by march 7	5	$364	200	200	+0	open	—	03-05 17:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 15:57:41	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0x4f0413…
06-23 09:11:53	will openais valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 538 161	No	SELL	50	91¢	$46	0x24ef26…
06-18 22:45:19	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x05c135…
06-16 18:00:16	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x2fc349…
06-16 10:16:34	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x6e9d5e…
06-09 00:55:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x5f9fa6…
06-08 16:23:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0xe31ab0…
06-02 06:14:09	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x626051…
06-01 14:58:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x69b1bf…
05-23 06:47:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x03500b…
05-23 06:43:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x31af1a…
05-18 15:47:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x19b5a2…
05-14 06:46:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xa96715…
05-14 00:17:54	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0x9339d1…
05-14 00:04:06	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc90eb1…
05-13 23:33:08	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0x273469…
05-13 23:32:19	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	49	79¢	$39	0xb200a2…
05-13 22:35:33	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x01ea0d…
05-13 22:06:18	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x383be1…
05-13 22:06:18	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x1fcf5a…
05-13 22:06:16	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xb0573b…
05-13 22:02:55	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x2852a5…
05-13 22:02:22	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	17	63¢	$11	0x9550f2…
05-13 21:58:29	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xd4bc19…
05-13 21:56:53	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x801014…
05-13 21:49:44	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x077c90…
05-13 21:33:15	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x2da864…
05-13 21:30:36	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x558748…
05-13 21:16:36	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x171a6d…
05-13 21:12:15	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x1c3852…
05-13 21:06:16	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xca9ae2…
05-13 21:05:10	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x4566f9…
05-13 21:05:06	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xf52665…
05-13 20:58:12	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	B8	SELL	250	2¢	$6	0xc40738…
05-13 20:54:40	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	B8	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x147883…
05-13 20:51:24	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xf2ef64…
05-13 20:46:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x3662b4…
05-13 20:45:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xf0e35b…
05-13 20:45:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x28003e…
05-13 20:42:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x78c45f…
05-13 20:40:35	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	B8	SELL	38	8¢	$3	0x8d0b6b…
05-13 20:40:26	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	B8	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0xbb2598…
05-13 20:37:01	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xb18b89…
05-13 20:36:02	Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	B8	BUY	163	8¢	$13	0xec69ee…
05-13 20:33:22	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xc61a80…
05-13 20:32:14	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xe76071…
05-13 20:31:15	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x674df5…
05-13 20:25:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe31a41…
05-13 20:23:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?	Down	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xecb7a8…
05-13 20:13:38	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xa4c1ff…
05-13 19:52:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13?	Down	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xe4fad3…
05-12 21:23:17	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x26d738…
05-12 21:03:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3fc92f…
05-12 20:55:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xdc2460…
05-12 20:11:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xec369b…
05-12 20:10:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0xed1aea…
05-12 20:02:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x6cb917…
05-12 19:38:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xb79752…
05-12 19:07:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x68fe7f…
05-12 19:06:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0xf0b551…
05-12 19:04:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x78b4ab…
05-12 19:04:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0xfd796b…
05-12 19:03:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x88ae91…
05-10 18:55:44	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4c82cd…
05-10 18:30:44	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf57b79…
05-10 18:25:50	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb5035a…
05-10 18:23:37	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd79a9c…
05-10 07:25:41	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0x509667…
05-10 07:23:08	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	44	40¢	$17	0x8c7cb7…
05-10 07:23:07	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xa81e09…
05-10 07:23:07	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x5cbaac…
05-10 07:23:01	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	203	39¢	$79	0x0f13a8…
05-10 07:22:53	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	26	39¢	$10	0x088d04…
05-10 07:22:51	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	60	40¢	$24	0xe8b6ff…
05-10 07:22:51	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	165	40¢	$66	0x6ec060…
05-10 07:22:00	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	250	38¢	$96	0x92cff0…
05-10 07:01:18	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	MOUZ	SELL	152	43¢	$65	0x242ac1…
05-10 07:01:16	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	MOUZ	SELL	98	43¢	$42	0xcb3de5…
05-10 07:00:46	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	MOUZ	BUY	207	43¢	$89	0x6b5dfe…
05-10 07:00:46	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	MOUZ	BUY	43	43¢	$19	0x4836f7…
05-10 06:36:00	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	130	79¢	$103	0x03e967…
05-10 06:35:59	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	120	79¢	$94	0xf72b61…
05-10 06:32:06	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	SELL	214	75¢	$161	0x943369…
05-10 06:30:40	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	Gentle Mates	BUY	250	79¢	$198	0x8578b7…
05-10 06:23:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf92444…
05-10 06:20:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x90313a…
05-08 11:58:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x32dd8e…
04-27 15:54:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xf1ba26…
04-13 19:36:51	cs2 lgc mouz 2026 04 13	Legacy	SELL	250	74¢	$185	0xef4cc3…
04-13 19:36:17	cs2 lgc mouz 2026 04 13	Legacy	BUY	250	70¢	$175	0xe62bce…
04-13 19:26:53	cs2 b8 navi 2026 04 13	Natus Vincere	SELL	256	71¢	$183	0xec7813…
04-13 19:25:01	cs2 b8 navi 2026 04 13	Natus Vincere	BUY	250	71¢	$178	0x99f3e5…
04-13 19:22:13	cs2 b8 navi 2026 04 13	Natus Vincere	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x645831…
04-13 19:22:11	cs2 b8 navi 2026 04 13	Natus Vincere	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc478b9…
04-13 09:38:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0xe26fb7…
04-11 23:18:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x9e4b65…
04-11 23:14:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	210	30¢	$63	0x4d57e6…
04-11 22:55:29	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	60	29¢	$17	0x475eba…
04-11 22:55:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x077cbc…
04-11 17:53:27	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	100¢	$229	0x9ac72d…