Realized P&L
-$423
Unrealized P&L
+$188
Hit rate
67.6%
Resolved
2,734
Trades
30,245
lifetime
Volume
$189.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$1.53K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-01
last 10-28 20:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 194 days
Categories
Other
56% 80% -$525
Politics
35% 60% +$198
Sports
4% 65% -$37
Crypto
3% 59% -$119
Tech
2% 72% +$59
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 227 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +129 $106 82¢ $105 -$1 10-27 18:44
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +91 $60 88¢ $80 +$20 06-09 14:23
iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 No +91 $34 88¢ $80 +$46 08-21 10:11
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +85 $40 93¢ $79 +$39 07-31 17:38
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +148 $22 50¢ $74 +$52 10-03 16:20
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +73 $59 95¢ $70 +$11 06-05 10:49
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +114 $65 61¢ $69 +$4 10-25 22:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 No +78 $60 88¢ $68 +$8 07-23 22:02
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +82 $56 78¢ $65 +$8 10-07 13:31
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +62 $48 92¢ $57 +$9 10-09 01:23
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +72 $53 78¢ $56 +$3 06-10 22:03
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +58 $53 96¢ $55 +$2 06-08 01:59
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +48 $46 100¢ $48 +$2 10-28 19:16
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +48 $43 97¢ $47 +$4 10-11 23:20
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +45 $26 92¢ $41 +$15 10-15 15:00
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +215 $57 18¢ $40 -$17 10-18 14:34
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +43 $37 92¢ $40 +$3 06-06 22:34
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +81 $30 48¢ $39 +$9 10-28 17:57
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +48 $38 82¢ $39 +$1 08-04 13:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +306 $70 13¢ $38 -$32 08-17 22:47
iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885 No +57 $35 67¢ $38 +$3 10-23 21:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +38 $32 99¢ $38 +$6 10-17 15:05
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +206 $35 18¢ $36 +$1 10-21 09:47
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +35 $32 99¢ $35 +$3 10-06 05:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +36 $34 94¢ $34 $0 09-08 01:34
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No +36 $24 92¢ $33 +$9 10-19 07:00
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +34 $32 97¢ $33 +$0 09-15 17:43
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +47 $32 68¢ $32 +$1 10-11 08:30
trump meets with putin by december 31 No +202 $53 16¢ $31 -$22 09-24 06:58
will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391 No +32 $30 96¢ $31 +$1 09-26 04:54