Positive-Negligee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.02K

Unrealized P&L

-$835

Hit rate

62.3%

Resolved

115

Trades

635

lifetime

Volume

$46.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

$3.53K

19 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 10-25 23:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

78% 32% +$2,216

Politics

20% 52% -$128

Sports

2% 42% -$65

Crypto

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	+2,613	$1,325	29¢	$758	-$567	10-25 23:41
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	+699	$793	69¢	$482	-$311	10-25 23:53
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+500	$303	65¢	$325	+$22	10-01 12:11
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+400	$284	76¢	$306	+$22	10-15 08:06
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+400	$256	70¢	$282	+$26	10-15 08:06
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1,180	$205	21¢	$251	+$46	10-20 21:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+720	$187	30¢	$212	+$25	10-20 18:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$166	86¢	$171	+$5	10-15 08:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+286	$110	52¢	$150	+$40	10-25 23:55
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+222	$132	66¢	$148	+$16	10-25 23:21
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+200	$128	70¢	$141	+$13	10-20 12:06
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+160	$86	58¢	$93	+$6	10-18 16:54
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+110	$70	68¢	$75	+$5	10-15 08:12
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+400	$68	8¢	$30	-$38	10-20 12:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+170	$80	18¢	$30	-$51	10-25 23:56
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	+309	$67	10¢	$30	-$37	09-22 17:22
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+2,577	$37	1¢	$22	-$15	09-06 15:38
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$55	16¢	$16	-$40	10-15 08:20
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+476	$10	2¢	$8	-$2	08-03 10:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	56	$11.3K	9,977	10,010	-32	Yes	+$2,226	09-20 16:05
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	41	$5.1K	10,684	8,070	+2,613	open	—	10-25 23:41
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	42	$5.0K	3,038	3,038	+0	No	-$4	08-11 18:17
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	40	$4.3K	3,341	2,643	+699	open	—	10-25 23:53
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	13	$1.8K	2,561	2,561	+0	Yes	-$224	10-25 23:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	17	$1.2K	1,198	1,028	+170	open	—	10-25 23:56
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	4	$995	578	578	+0	No	+$80	07-07 22:57
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	3	$901	500	500	+0	No	+$71	07-25 09:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	9	$685	391	391	+0	No	+$78	08-11 18:18
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	10	$656	763	763	+0	No	-$104	08-16 12:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	10	$538	404	404	+0	open	—	08-16 12:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	6	$532	318	318	+0	open	—	08-03 09:47
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	6	$532	361	361	+0	Yes	+$120	08-01 11:11
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	3	$522	1,001	1,001	+0	open	—	09-06 14:06
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	8	$487	1,268	1,268	+0	open	—	10-15 06:45
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	6	$450	726	583	+143	No	-$150	07-31 11:53
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	2	$424	230	230	+0	No	+$24	06-29 23:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	2	$391	630	630	+0	open	—	09-26 09:47
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	5	$390	599	599	+0	No	-$110	08-03 08:42
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	5	$317	249	249	+0	open	—	08-03 09:48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	1	$303	500	0	+500	open	—	10-01 12:11
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	7	$302	649	649	+0	open	—	08-28 10:07
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	3	$295	200	200	+0	open	—	09-22 17:16
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	3	$288	278	278	+0	Yes	-$12	08-01 11:12
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	1	$284	400	0	+400	open	—	10-15 08:06
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$281	877	739	+139	No	+$8	07-15 15:40
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	1	$256	400	0	+400	open	—	10-15 08:06
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	2	$228	300	78	+222	open	—	10-25 23:21
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	5	$223	575	575	+0	No	+$83	07-29 20:09
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	4	$209	198	198	-0	open	—	10-25 23:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:56:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x09940a…
10-25 23:55:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	59	53¢	$31	0x69f51f…
10-25 23:53:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xd49f26…
10-25 23:53:03	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	206	83¢	$171	0x9de507…
10-25 23:52:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x6ac491…
10-25 23:52:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x844b71…
10-25 23:49:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb3981d…
10-25 23:43:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	111	20¢	$22	0xde94b6…
10-25 23:41:24	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xbf2b2b…
10-25 23:40:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x1eafa8…
10-25 23:27:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	80	94¢	$75	0xd9138d…
10-25 23:23:57	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	301	31¢	$93	0x868540…
10-25 23:21:12	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	62¢	$48	0x0ac7bb…
10-25 23:20:42	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	50¢	$100	0x715db0…
10-22 20:49:39	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	30¢	$54	0xa96571…
10-20 22:24:59	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	27	87¢	$23	0x0beb41…
10-20 21:16:18	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xd89b6b…
10-20 21:16:18	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	254	17¢	$44	0x298de6…
10-20 18:37:50	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xc94a73…
10-20 18:37:50	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xb1a1f6…
10-20 18:37:50	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	70	17¢	$12	0x25d869…
10-20 18:37:48	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x66e079…
10-20 18:37:45	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	101	17¢	$18	0xd8990d…
10-20 18:37:44	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xc00893…
10-20 18:37:44	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x40ddde…
10-20 18:33:53	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	720	26¢	$187	0xcd2f0a…
10-20 18:31:45	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	675	17¢	$117	0x2276c5…
10-20 18:25:14	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x839c33…
10-20 12:33:57	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xc154a3…
10-20 12:33:30	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xd68b2e…
10-20 12:33:17	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x738cdc…
10-20 12:33:02	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	46	86¢	$40	0x1c26a1…
10-20 12:06:59	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x3cc2b1…
10-20 12:05:51	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	17¢	$68	0x415e28…
10-20 12:00:08	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	337	23¢	$78	0xd431ee…
10-20 11:59:09	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	505	24¢	$121	0x4b8bd4…
10-20 01:47:38	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	221	28¢	$62	0x8cd855…
10-20 01:44:30	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x6057ce…
10-19 21:30:01	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	26¢	$17	0x8bd9d8…
10-19 19:46:21	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	26¢	$10	0x5909ba…
10-19 19:44:53	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xf4d7d7…
10-18 16:54:41	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	160	52¢	$84	0x16a000…
10-18 16:53:51	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	25¢	$4	0xd40667…
10-18 16:53:14	Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	65¢	$20	0x199298…
10-15 08:29:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x3fe363…
10-15 08:20:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x55cdf9…
10-15 08:20:13	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xa1bbca…
10-15 08:12:26	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	110	64¢	$70	0x22db7e…
10-15 08:09:38	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x522f09…
10-15 08:06:29	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	64¢	$256	0x7ec30f…
10-15 08:06:02	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	71¢	$284	0x128000…
10-15 06:45:44	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	1,179	11¢	$130	0xdd29be…
10-14 18:56:28	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x38ce14…
10-14 18:01:19	Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	SELL	97	23¢	$22	0x81518b…
10-14 16:55:39	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	49	25¢	$12	0x57ab1a…
10-14 02:05:08	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	81	73¢	$59	0x4e5a3c…
10-14 01:54:08	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xbb45d6…
10-14 01:51:32	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	55	72¢	$40	0xf29fb6…
10-14 01:50:56	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	93	71¢	$66	0xa10d31…
10-14 01:50:20	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	110	70¢	$77	0x31a5ea…
10-13 22:11:46	Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	No	BUY	99	47¢	$47	0x89d647…
10-13 19:10:43	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x2efeb9…
10-13 19:09:24	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	55¢	$21	0x8cfa66…
10-13 19:08:52	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	55¢	$83	0x724e45…
10-13 19:01:18	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x73ad8f…
10-13 18:34:46	Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xc5412f…
10-13 18:30:36	Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	56	23¢	$13	0xa5c873…
10-13 18:29:39	Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	41	22¢	$9	0xe88d52…
10-13 18:23:22	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	300	27¢	$81	0xaa7762…
10-13 18:22:30	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	769	27¢	$208	0xb66564…
10-13 18:22:10	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	59	26¢	$15	0xba4a48…
10-13 18:16:55	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	1,284	67¢	$857	0xc09caf…
10-13 18:15:52	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	1,284	67¢	$860	0xb7ccbc…
10-11 18:30:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	345	41¢	$141	0x729220…
10-08 17:42:14	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	25¢	$21	0x341ffa…
10-08 17:41:45	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x9e8ab7…
10-08 14:21:00	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	500	77¢	$385	0x272566…
10-08 12:39:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	250	30¢	$75	0xd80762…
10-07 10:50:09	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xfb3c28…
10-06 21:30:50	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0xc6f675…
10-06 10:26:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	704	16¢	$113	0xdf4257…
10-05 19:09:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	676	17¢	$115	0xac4645…
10-03 19:00:03	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	390	76¢	$296	0xf03312…
10-03 17:04:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	620	41¢	$254	0xcccba0…
10-03 14:49:26	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	115	76¢	$87	0x65b80e…
10-02 12:03:18	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x36debf…
10-02 09:40:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	250	41¢	$102	0x029cc9…
10-02 09:33:32	Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x8d7ace…
10-02 09:32:05	Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0xf82ca6…
10-02 09:16:12	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0xa3d829…
10-02 09:01:50	Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x448c1d…
10-02 08:58:48	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x81b622…
10-01 12:16:24	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	43	41¢	$18	0x302167…
10-01 12:11:50	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	207	41¢	$85	0x46fa6a…
10-01 12:11:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	500	61¢	$303	0x4cdd32…
10-01 11:58:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	600	37¢	$222	0xf16894…
10-01 08:45:05	Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	65¢	$104	0x201012…
10-01 01:44:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	600	38¢	$228	0xda0ebe…
10-01 01:40:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,050	38¢	$399	0x6fd8ff…
09-26 09:47:38	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	630	26¢	$164	0xe063d1…