Angelic-Carnival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$246

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,042

lifetime

Volume

$537.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$263

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-06 18:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

55% 50% $-401

Other

28% 100% +$15

Crypto

13% 100% +$140

Sports

4% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 268 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	172	$101.7K	53,713	56,213	-2,500	open	—	02-28 22:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	13	$50.4K	51,500	0	+51,500	open	—	01-22 14:36
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	59	$32.9K	21,500	20,006	+1,494	open	—	02-28 19:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	299	$30.9K	30,300	28,680	+1,620	Yes	+$1,493	04-11 22:20
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	63	$29.6K	15,000	15,000	+0	No	+$15	04-13 00:09
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	62	$25.3K	13,000	13,000	+0	open	—	02-12 15:52
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	21	$23.5K	15,068	19,386	-4,319	open	—	04-13 00:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	42	$23.1K	12,184	12,184	+0	open	—	04-10 14:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	15	$19.5K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-08 18:09
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	68	$11.0K	8,787	9,402	-614	open	—	02-11 12:51
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	172	$10.2K	10,344	2,446	+7,899	open	—	02-15 08:13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	149	$9.6K	7,960	8,299	-339	open	—	02-28 10:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	12	$8.4K	9,802	802	+9,000	open	—	03-14 13:31
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	38	$8.1K	5,766	2,535	+3,230	open	—	03-31 21:29
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	3	$7.5K	3,807	3,807	+0	open	—	04-15 01:05
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	11	$7.5K	5,000	6,000	-1,000	open	—	04-08 20:32
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	10	$6.8K	3,559	3,559	+0	open	—	03-30 22:58
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	7	$6.8K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	02-08 19:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	21	$6.1K	3,453	3,453	+0	open	—	03-18 13:11
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	50	$6.0K	6,740	7,403	-663	open	—	02-27 10:38
will axiom be accused of insider trading	29	$5.4K	3,836	2,592	+1,244	open	—	02-26 05:35
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$5.1K	5,152	0	+5,152	open	—	04-13 17:33
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$4.9K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	03-19 20:02
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	33	$4.8K	4,258	3,423	+835	open	—	02-26 16:52
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	16	$4.7K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-07 22:12
will seguro win all of portugals districts	16	$4.4K	2,429	2,479	-50	open	—	02-10 00:24
nba bkn orl 2026 02 05	1	$4.0K	5,050	0	+5,050	open	—	02-04 12:03
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?	2	$4.0K	4,054	0	+4,054	open	—	04-13 19:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	34	$4.0K	7,303	7,303	+0	open	—	02-28 06:56
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	17	$3.7K	5,877	0	+5,877	open	—	02-11 14:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 18:49:51	bitcoin above 60k on june 7 2026 159	Yes	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xf6a692…
06-06 18:31:33	bitcoin above 60k on june 7 2026 159	Yes	BUY	4,372	67¢	$2,930	0xc7706f…
06-06 18:29:28	bitcoin above 60k on june 7 2026 159	Yes	BUY	8	69¢	$5	0x95c0dc…
04-27 04:23:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,000	8¢	$240	0x0bedee…
04-23 16:43:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	7¢	$210	0xc1976e…
04-22 18:26:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,233	8¢	$259	0xd257e1…
04-22 13:40:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	442	90¢	$398	0xc202e1…
04-21 19:51:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	437	88¢	$384	0x4a04af…
04-20 20:37:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	245	74¢	$181	0x0744af…
04-20 16:46:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	250	70¢	$175	0x8f6c79…
04-15 01:05:00	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	1,452	100¢	$1,450	0x9beb8c…
04-15 01:04:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	2,355	100¢	$2,353	0xd67384…
04-15 00:18:00	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	727	97¢	$708	0xef78ca…
04-14 17:57:32	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	685	98¢	$671	0x0d22fb…
04-14 17:56:32	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0x2875a7…
04-14 09:47:23	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	36	78¢	$28	0x1b5b5c…
04-14 09:47:09	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	141	78¢	$110	0x842a38…
04-14 09:47:01	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0xd7330d…
04-14 09:46:55	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	134	78¢	$105	0x13fdd6…
04-14 09:46:43	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	39	78¢	$31	0x3d7a13…
04-14 00:44:55	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	734	58¢	$426	0x8c21df…
04-14 00:38:43	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x78a22e…
04-13 23:59:13	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	193	49¢	$95	0x865669…
04-13 23:55:15	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0xf3b931…
04-13 23:29:09	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	37	50¢	$18	0x905eae…
04-13 23:20:41	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	11	50¢	$5	0x41c43f…
04-13 23:02:27	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x0ad34a…
04-13 23:01:55	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0x517589…
04-13 23:01:43	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	936	48¢	$449	0x1a1c05…
04-13 22:20:29	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	552	76¢	$419	0x39eeb9…
04-13 21:38:49	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	127	62¢	$78	0x88456b…
04-13 21:34:01	Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	131	54¢	$71	0x933f66…
04-13 19:08:17	Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,600	99¢	$1,586	0x9070b9…
04-13 17:33:39	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2,096	100¢	$2,090	0xa33495…
04-13 16:07:55	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3,056	100¢	$3,044	0x450d5d…
04-13 15:59:09	Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2,454	99¢	$2,430	0x7f0915…
04-13 15:44:01	Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x7f2536…
04-13 15:43:39	Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x3c302b…
04-13 00:16:31	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	9,154	99¢	$9,062	0x3d7180…
04-13 00:16:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x505a73…
04-13 00:15:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf09900…
04-13 00:09:31	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x89c2b3…
04-13 00:08:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x608ea5…
04-13 00:06:41	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xb1c041…
04-12 23:52:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	206	99¢	$203	0x276300…
04-12 23:20:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbf1a18…
04-12 23:20:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	555	99¢	$549	0xe1716c…
04-12 23:19:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	6,218	99¢	$6,143	0x69b59e…
04-12 23:04:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1,392	99¢	$1,375	0xb004d9…
04-12 23:04:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe5ad87…
04-12 23:04:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x3a580e…
04-12 23:04:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0x2fa02f…
04-12 23:03:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	862	99¢	$851	0x82c439…
04-12 15:22:23	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	7,146	99¢	$7,053	0x1443bc…
04-12 15:17:59	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	2,332	99¢	$2,302	0xb390d6…
04-12 13:45:35	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,974	0xa0fea7…
04-12 13:27:01	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x543b11…
04-12 11:54:13	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0x53eafe…
04-12 10:01:25	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0xcf58e4…
04-12 09:58:49	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$96	0xa0f4e0…
04-12 09:19:05	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	114	99¢	$113	0xc7a427…
04-12 08:20:53	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	106	99¢	$105	0x463988…
04-12 07:57:29	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x292c24…
04-12 07:46:31	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xe44cfe…
04-12 07:45:47	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x573d76…
04-12 06:42:57	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x157787…
04-12 06:41:55	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0xa6425c…
04-12 06:33:17	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xf5f188…
04-12 06:13:57	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0xd0b2b3…
04-12 06:00:41	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0x123d4e…
04-12 05:20:11	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	87	99¢	$86	0xfccca6…
04-12 05:10:53	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$103	0xb99125…
04-12 05:07:31	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xac0a42…
04-12 04:50:29	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x8902c5…
04-12 04:02:57	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	107	99¢	$106	0x666ef7…
04-12 03:03:35	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	87	99¢	$86	0x9d787f…
04-12 03:01:31	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x2e9683…
04-12 02:58:59	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	92	99¢	$91	0x679f09…
04-12 02:37:17	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$100	0xadc199…
04-12 02:33:45	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$129	0x761416…
04-12 02:27:51	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$93	0x2d01e6…
04-12 02:23:09	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xf0bbf8…
04-12 02:10:11	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xff713d…
04-12 02:06:17	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	87	99¢	$86	0xe690c5…
04-12 01:54:05	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	114	99¢	$112	0x934478…
04-12 01:44:25	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	130	99¢	$129	0x317458…
04-12 01:12:39	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0x63d591…
04-11 23:28:57	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0x999409…
04-11 23:13:17	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0x0f0f5d…
04-11 22:48:39	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xdc0171…
04-11 22:45:05	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0x6370e2…
04-11 22:40:49	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x2511a4…
04-11 22:20:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	27¢	$19	0x1095d8…
04-11 22:11:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xfd2502…
04-11 21:55:37	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xfe7407…
04-11 21:38:57	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0xe71c52…
04-11 21:23:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	27¢	$31	0xd664a0…
04-11 21:15:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xdff318…
04-11 20:48:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	27¢	$24	0x54d146…
04-11 20:46:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x7d492a…