Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$53

Unrealized P&L

-$45

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,160

lifetime

Volume

$276.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$128

Open exposure

$95.4K

30 positions

First seen

2026-11-12

last 11-15 06:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

55% 0% -$39

Politics

26% 0% -$5

Tech

14% 0% -$9

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 720 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+9,556	$7,504	77¢	$7.4K	-$141	11-14 22:11
Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	No	+8,283	$6,706	75¢	$6.2K	-$506	11-14 08:30
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	+6,000	$5,435	89¢	$5.3K	-$101	11-15 01:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+4,831	$4,750	98¢	$4.7K	-$13	11-13 04:07
FAA outage attributed to AI?	No	+4,800	$4,712	98¢	$4.7K	+$4	11-15 00:32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+4,650	$4,469	99¢	$4.6K	+$143	11-13 20:51
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	+4,800	$4,198	91¢	$4.4K	+$154	11-13 03:16
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+4,540	$3,999	86¢	$3.9K	-$74	11-13 08:25
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	+3,879	$3,695	95¢	$3.7K	-$16	11-14 02:22
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+4,247	$3,527	84¢	$3.6K	+$51	11-14 04:06
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	+3,639	$3,324	90¢	$3.3K	-$67	11-14 01:47
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Yes	+3,378	$3,230	95¢	$3.2K	-$32	11-13 14:52
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,095	$3,034	98¢	$3.0K	-$8	11-14 05:53
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	+2,626	$2,308	92¢	$2.4K	+$108	11-12 14:52
FAA outage attributed to hack?	No	+2,400	$2,341	99¢	$2.4K	+$46	11-14 16:28
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?	No	+2,380	$2,343	100¢	$2.4K	+$34	11-13 00:51
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+2,406	$2,378	98¢	$2.4K	-$8	11-13 01:13
FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor?	No	+2,400	$2,345	99¢	$2.4K	+$22	11-14 16:29
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+2,613	$2,234	85¢	$2.2K	-$6	11-15 01:07
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	+2,400	$2,160	92¢	$2.2K	+$60	11-12 19:54
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+9,600	$2,135	23¢	$2.2K	+$68	11-14 22:11
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+2,379	$2,227	92¢	$2.2K	-$37	11-14 06:35
Will Johny Srouji be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	No	+2,312	$2,153	93¢	$2.1K	-$3	11-14 02:13
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	No	+2,400	$2,174	88¢	$2.1K	-$56	11-14 01:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+3,600	$2,190	58¢	$2.1K	-$104	11-13 17:01
Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	Yes	+8,283	$1,626	25¢	$2.1K	+$458	11-14 08:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	+2,092	$2,048	99¢	$2.1K	+$30	11-12 13:10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+2,400	$2,160	86¢	$2.1K	-$84	11-13 17:37
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+2,400	$1,992	84¢	$2.0K	+$36	11-13 18:48
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+2,400	$2,003	83¢	$2.0K	$0	11-14 10:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	17	$10.2K	20,171	1,015	+19,156	open	—	11-14 22:11
Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	22	$8.7K	17,620	1,055	+16,565	open	—	11-14 08:44
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	9	$6.4K	13,798	1,798	+12,000	open	—	11-15 01:27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	10	$5.2K	11,873	2,573	+9,300	open	—	11-13 20:51
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	5	$5.0K	10,448	467	+9,981	open	—	11-13 03:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	6	$4.9K	9,677	46	+9,631	open	—	11-13 04:07
FAA outage attributed to AI?	6	$4.9K	9,644	44	+9,600	open	—	11-15 00:32
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	12	$4.8K	9,368	288	+9,080	open	—	11-13 08:25
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	12	$4.4K	8,918	423	+8,495	open	—	11-14 12:52
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	12	$4.1K	6,057	1,359	+4,698	open	—	11-15 04:58
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	9	$3.9K	7,723	100	+7,623	open	—	11-14 02:22
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	10	$3.8K	7,700	423	+7,277	open	—	11-14 02:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	9	$3.8K	7,389	189	+7,200	open	—	11-13 17:16
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	7	$3.5K	7,303	43	+7,260	open	—	11-13 14:52
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	9	$3.2K	6,236	54	+6,182	open	—	11-14 05:53
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	11	$2.8K	5,352	125	+5,227	open	—	11-15 01:07
AI bubble burst in 2026?	8	$2.8K	5,814	563	+5,251	open	—	11-12 14:52
Will Johny Srouji be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	5	$2.7K	4,888	263	+4,625	open	—	11-14 02:45
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	6	$2.6K	4,880	80	+4,800	open	—	11-12 19:54
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	3	$2.6K	4,882	82	+4,800	open	—	11-14 01:38
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	5	$2.5K	4,834	103	+4,731	open	—	11-14 08:52
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6	$2.5K	4,890	90	+4,800	open	—	11-13 02:56
FAA outage attributed to hack?	3	$2.5K	4,848	48	+4,800	open	—	11-14 16:28
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$2.5K	4,868	68	+4,800	open	—	11-14 10:17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	3	$2.5K	5,236	436	+4,800	open	—	11-13 18:13
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	15	$2.5K	2,220	1,140	+1,080	open	—	11-14 15:19
FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor?	4	$2.5K	4,854	54	+4,800	open	—	11-14 16:29
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	10	$2.5K	5,392	565	+4,827	open	—	11-14 06:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	2	$2.5K	4,801	0	+4,801	open	—	11-12 13:08
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	3	$2.5K	4,926	0	+4,926	open	—	11-13 18:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 08:00:59	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xab5497…
11-15 08:00:59	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?	Yes	BUY	51	86¢	$44	0x89a7dc…
11-15 07:43:56	Will LSU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xbeaf0f…
11-15 07:06:41	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2028?	No	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x77454b…
11-15 07:06:41	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2028?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x5a06a6…
11-15 06:57:29	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x7d68f0…
11-15 06:53:59	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	28¢	$22	0x69d4a9…
11-15 06:53:58	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x5882da…
11-15 06:38:35	Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0xd9df8a…
11-15 06:32:25	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0xcfabf1…
11-15 06:32:25	Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3fd97e…
11-15 06:31:07	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of December 2026?	No	BUY	120	89¢	$106	0xf0f3f3…
11-15 06:31:07	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	11¢	$18	0x89bd5a…
11-15 06:21:44	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x9b002d…
11-15 06:21:44	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	43¢	$18	0x1512ad…
11-15 06:21:17	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x709bf0…
11-15 06:21:16	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	306	96¢	$294	0x21fa6b…
11-15 06:16:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	26¢	$10	0xb39ea1…
11-15 06:15:05	Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0xce873a…
11-15 06:15:05	Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x607aba…
11-15 06:14:13	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xabf913…
11-15 06:14:13	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	900	32¢	$291	0x58e534…
11-15 06:05:56	Over $250k committed to the over.computer public sale?	No	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0xf8f538…
11-15 06:05:56	Over $250k committed to the over.computer public sale?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xc4b4d2…
11-15 06:04:35	Will Jayden Daniels have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xbaef4f…
11-15 05:25:32	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x8e4411…
11-15 05:25:32	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x159a2f…
11-15 05:24:50	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	21¢	$25	0x037f24…
11-15 05:20:52	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	257	67¢	$172	0x0d36e2…
11-15 05:20:52	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0x04234c…
11-15 05:11:16	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	250	71¢	$178	0xfd3a54…
11-15 05:11:16	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	253	32¢	$80	0xc8bbcd…
11-15 05:10:50	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x14809b…
11-15 05:09:22	Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	BUY	120	54¢	$65	0xc6f933…
11-15 05:04:50	Israel military action against Lebanon on November 15?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xcaedd6…
11-15 04:58:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	185	84¢	$155	0xe24a02…
11-15 04:58:01	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x791239…
11-15 04:57:59	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	203	73¢	$148	0x7752f1…
11-15 04:57:56	Will the US rank 19th or higher in the World Happiness Report 2027?	No	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x21ceeb…
11-15 04:57:55	Will the US rank 19th or higher in the World Happiness Report 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	45¢	$35	0x173f6d…
11-15 04:55:55	Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	13¢	$78	0xda8403…
11-15 04:52:55	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x9d8454…
11-15 04:52:55	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x0a3044…
11-15 04:47:55	Will Iceland be 2nd in the World Happiness Report 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0xf0b6c0…
11-15 04:45:55	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0xb15e79…
11-15 04:45:55	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	29¢	$87	0x14dcc5…
11-15 04:35:47	Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate at the January meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	87¢	$104	0xf6b168…
11-15 04:32:58	Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	102	57¢	$59	0x3e6e5e…
11-15 04:32:58	Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x22e281…
11-15 04:27:44	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	92	8¢	$7	0xc3f905…
11-15 04:27:44	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x47b31d…
11-15 04:26:49	Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x947311…
11-15 04:15:46	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0xf560a9…
11-15 04:15:46	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xe13173…
11-15 04:09:26	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x90945f…
11-15 04:09:26	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	BUY	1,200	40¢	$480	0x5ed2e0…
11-15 04:09:26	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	BUY	1,198	61¢	$732	0x17f3a7…
11-15 04:08:52	Will Iran target Jordan by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	61¢	$0	0xb928b5…
11-15 04:07:08	Will Bangladesh join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0xc6a9e0…
11-15 04:07:05	Will Canada’s November 2026 unemployment rate be ≤6.4%?	Yes	BUY	120	11¢	$13	0x49f7b3…
11-15 04:02:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x6b3654…
11-15 04:01:28	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	123	89¢	$109	0xdbb86d…
11-15 04:01:28	Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 45% or higher?	No	BUY	120	12¢	$15	0xba4a5f…
11-15 03:57:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0x8a9191…
11-15 03:57:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	415	18¢	$75	0x488d5a…
11-15 03:57:14	Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	Yes	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0x5b808b…
11-15 03:57:14	Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x1bc25b…
11-15 03:41:13	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	21	8¢	$2	0x202f3d…
11-15 03:41:13	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x1f81af…
11-15 03:36:47	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xe426a4…
11-15 03:32:16	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0xbfc666…
11-15 03:31:55	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$11	0xc964b1…
11-15 03:31:55	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	BUY	153	94¢	$144	0x92ff20…
11-15 03:21:22	Will Jensen Huang post again on X by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x2e0716…
11-15 03:21:22	Will Jensen Huang post again on X by December 31?	No	BUY	102	61¢	$62	0x178a2b…
11-15 03:18:52	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	No	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x87f29b…
11-15 03:18:52	Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x0eab1c…
11-15 03:14:38	Will Khalil Shakir have 849.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xaf2232…
11-15 03:14:14	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	7	47¢	$3	0x04a843…
11-15 03:14:10	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	120	55¢	$66	0x93855f…
11-15 03:14:08	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	123	47¢	$58	0x487002…
11-15 03:08:14	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	SELL	105	42¢	$44	0x5b8783…
11-15 03:07:44	Will Perplexity launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x17868e…
11-15 03:05:55	Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the January meeting?	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xa15628…
11-15 03:03:17	Will the DPP win 12 or more Taiwanese head of local government races?	Yes	SELL	13	19¢	$3	0xde56ba…
11-15 03:01:56	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xaab189…
11-15 03:01:55	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0x45949b…
11-15 02:49:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Yes	BUY	900	73¢	$657	0x7b548f…
11-15 02:49:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	No	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x2e7983…
11-15 02:49:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	No	BUY	941	29¢	$273	0x916f60…
11-15 02:35:50	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0xbbe908…
11-15 02:33:16	Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	104	47¢	$49	0x4d9297…
11-15 02:33:16	Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x1ac066…
11-15 02:26:58	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30?	No	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x9fbe39…
11-15 02:17:25	Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xbc6a71…
11-15 02:12:50	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	48¢	$3	0x8d365e…
11-15 02:11:32	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xc491c7…
11-15 02:11:19	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	600	54¢	$323	0x8c1016…
11-15 02:11:17	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	587	48¢	$280	0xee84e6…
11-15 02:09:50	Will Brock Purdy have 4,299.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xeef534…