(anonymous) 0xbcc4d5…3afbde
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Realized P&L (7d)
-$363
Unrealized P&L
-$8
Hit rate
31.5%
Resolved (7d)
181
Trades (7d)
931
4,694 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$17.4K
$73.3K lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$561
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-02
last 10-30 13:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 54 days
Categories
Other
69% 30% -$1,472
Politics
21% 33% -$112
Tech
8% 24% -$102
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$28
Sports
1% 33% -$18
Crypto
0% 47% -$40
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
59 active days in 12wk • peak 205 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +80 $50 92¢ $74 +$24 10-24 16:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +80 $58 83¢ $66 +$9 10-24 12:09
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +89 $37 62¢ $55 +$18 10-24 16:29
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No +50 $36 88¢ $44 +$9 10-22 11:32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +86 $54 48¢ $41 -$13 10-22 01:32
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +75 $23 49¢ $37 +$14 10-22 11:32
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Yes +160 $32 20¢ $33 +$1 10-30 12:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? No +80 $33 38¢ $31 -$2 10-24 19:04
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +50 $21 53¢ $27 +$6 10-29 06:43
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? No +65 $27 38¢ $25 -$2 10-28 12:10
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +37 $20 64¢ $24 +$4 10-28 02:31
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +50 $22 44¢ $22 +$0 10-29 20:23
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +22 $14 72¢ $16 +$2 10-13 19:10
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Yes +30 $14 41¢ $12 -$2 10-29 06:59
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +80 $16 15¢ $12 -$4 10-28 22:24
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? No +80 $41 9¢ $7 -$34 10-29 23:08
us iran hormuz agreement by november 30 Yes +30 $12 24¢ $7 -$5 09-30 20:32
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes +38 $5 18¢ $7 +$2 10-30 09:15
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +10 $5 64¢ $7 +$2 10-13 08:30
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes +50 $2 8¢ $4 +$2 10-26 13:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +6 $1 52¢ $3 +$2 10-19 20:00
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +6 $6 44¢ $3 -$4 10-30 08:49
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +2 $3 94¢ $2 -$1 10-13 17:03
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +80 $20 1¢ $1 -$19 10-21 01:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +1 $4 66¢ $1 -$4 10-22 01:32
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? Yes +30 $9 2¢ $0 -$9 09-08 15:39
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? No +2 $1 28¢ $0 $0 10-11 08:12
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? No +26 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 10-13 15:41
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? Yes +30 $3 1¢ $0 -$3 10-02 03:07
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +0 $0 64¢ $0 $0 09-13 21:37