Realized P&L (90d)
-$2.18K
Unrealized P&L
+$48
Hit rate
31.6%
Resolved (90d)
878
Trades (90d)
5,239
5,239 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$82.5K
$82.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$835
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-02
last 11-03 16:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 58 days
Categories
Other
66% 30% -$1,712
Politics
24% 33% -$246
Tech
8% 30% -$118
Pop-Culture
1% 17% -$40
Sports
1% 29% -$20
Crypto
0% 47% -$40
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 205 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +80 $50 100¢ $80 +$30 10-24 16:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +80 $58 86¢ $68 +$11 10-24 12:09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? No +160 $62 38¢ $60 -$2 10-30 19:45
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +80 $50 71¢ $57 +$6 10-30 21:05
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +89 $37 58¢ $52 +$15 10-24 16:29
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +80 $55 64¢ $51 -$4 11-03 12:50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +160 $50 29¢ $46 -$4 10-31 14:44
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No +50 $36 86¢ $43 +$7 10-22 11:32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +86 $54 48¢ $42 -$13 10-22 01:32
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Yes +160 $32 24¢ $39 +$7 10-30 12:12
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +80 $40 46¢ $36 -$3 11-01 06:35
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +75 $23 44¢ $33 +$10 10-22 11:32
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027? No +65 $27 46¢ $30 +$3 10-28 12:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? No +66 $31 42¢ $28 -$3 11-01 01:12
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +37 $20 62¢ $23 +$3 10-28 02:31
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +41 $29 53¢ $22 -$7 11-02 18:15
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +36 $15 45¢ $16 +$1 10-31 11:39
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +22 $14 73¢ $16 +$2 10-13 19:10
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? Yes +74 $30 20¢ $15 -$15 10-31 00:45
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? Yes +37 $13 38¢ $14 +$1 11-02 18:40
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? Yes +80 $16 16¢ $13 -$3 10-31 01:15
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +23 $2 46¢ $11 +$9 11-02 18:14
us iran hormuz agreement by november 30 Yes +30 $12 26¢ $8 -$4 09-30 20:32
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Yes +30 $14 24¢ $7 -$7 10-29 06:59
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +10 $5 62¢ $6 +$1 10-13 08:30
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes +50 $2 9¢ $4 +$3 10-26 13:20
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat? No +12 $4 36¢ $4 +$0 11-03 03:07
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +15 $5 22¢ $3 -$2 11-03 16:34
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes +18 $1 18¢ $3 +$2 10-31 08:40
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +6 $1 52¢ $3 +$2 10-19 20:00