Wry-Deviance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

288

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$20

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-10 05:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 100% +$3

Other

22% — —

Politics

10% 100% +$1

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No		+20	$20	99¢	$20	+$0	06-01 01:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$346	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	06-05 02:03
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$344	204	153	+51	open	—	05-09 05:39
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	3	$126	64	64	+0	open	—	04-20 03:07
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	2	$120	60	60	+0	open	—	05-22 03:50
bitcoin above 78k on april 20	2	$114	115	0	+115	open	—	04-20 04:38
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	2	$106	60	60	+0	open	—	04-22 03:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$101	52	52	+0	No	+$1	05-12 03:17
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 360 379	2	$101	51	51	+0	open	—	04-20 03:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	2	$100	51	51	+0	open	—	04-22 09:52
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 26?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	04-26 03:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	05-28 02:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	05-27 04:24
bitcoin above 80k on april 21	2	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	04-21 02:48
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$96	98	0	+98	open	—	04-28 01:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2?	1	$90	90	0	+90	open	—	05-01 22:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?	1	$90	90	0	+90	open	—	06-01 01:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$90	90	0	+90	open	—	05-23 01:06
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28?	1	$90	90	0	+90	open	—	04-28 01:20
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 28?	1	$90	90	0	+90	open	—	04-28 01:21
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	03-03 02:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	05-07 03:02
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	05-06 03:02
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	05-23 01:06
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	05-15 04:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	04-30 01:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	05-20 03:43
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	05-15 04:08
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	05-27 04:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	1	$80	80	0	+80	open	—	05-29 04:31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	05-06 03:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 05:38:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3416e6…
06-10 05:34:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x2e5de0…
06-10 05:33:25	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc13710…
06-10 05:33:01	bitcoin above 64k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x8f9b0e…
06-09 03:13:54	bitcoin above 68k on june 9 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x32ac12…
06-08 03:15:43	ethereum above 1900 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x7b4b2d…
06-08 03:15:30	bitcoin above 70k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xa5adf0…
06-07 08:50:57	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe59dc5…
06-07 08:50:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x4e8a0c…
06-07 08:49:43	ethereum above 1800 on june 7 2026	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x27cf5b…
06-07 08:48:57	bitcoin above 66k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x4ced62…
06-05 02:03:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	600	15¢	$90	0xa0ab4b…
06-04 23:23:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	16¢	$96	0x20eab2…
06-04 03:09:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	16¢	$80	0xb0f612…
06-04 00:41:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0x0d4a06…
06-01 01:37:43	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x10fd1d…
06-01 01:34:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xcdd7ea…
06-01 01:34:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x6e8379…
06-01 01:26:54	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xababa6…
06-01 01:25:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xc757f7…
05-29 04:32:16	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x83f791…
05-29 04:31:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x20093d…
05-28 02:08:55	Will Donald Trump dance on May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x940396…
05-28 02:07:59	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xe7e1e4…
05-28 02:07:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd6a9a6…
05-27 04:25:00	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x835d95…
05-27 04:24:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa53ede…
05-25 23:04:53	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xd13cea…
05-25 17:55:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xed6afc…
05-23 01:06:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xa15db5…
05-23 01:06:10	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xc0f52a…
05-23 01:06:02	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xc14166…
05-23 01:05:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x964b30…
05-23 01:05:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xc016e3…
05-22 03:51:13	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xcc31ff…
05-22 03:50:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x3d7786…
05-22 03:50:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x7e8842…
05-21 04:37:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xe37e82…
05-21 04:37:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xf8cac8…
05-20 03:43:23	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xcf2d88…
05-20 03:43:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x361601…
05-19 02:22:23	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x62dc15…
05-19 02:22:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xe41214…
05-18 01:32:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x16c61c…
05-18 01:30:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$70	0x1e2fa9…
05-18 01:29:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x09a1e4…
05-16 23:46:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x793f40…
05-16 23:43:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 17?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xbe8a7e…
05-16 23:43:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x54bf58…
05-16 03:46:39	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x32310b…
05-16 03:46:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x647875…
05-15 04:08:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xc439b2…
05-15 04:08:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xd83595…
05-14 02:06:57	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x50c8bf…
05-14 02:06:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x60b2ca…
05-14 02:06:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xd44367…
05-13 04:01:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x328989…
05-13 04:00:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xcc0335…
05-13 04:00:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x290258…
05-13 03:59:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$21	0xfe8453…
05-12 03:23:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x0af6ea…
05-12 03:21:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xf5f8f1…
05-12 03:19:45	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x39a0ac…
05-12 03:19:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xadf105…
05-12 03:17:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	52	100¢	$51	0x764138…
05-09 05:40:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xa4aa66…
05-09 05:39:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xe14abc…
05-09 05:38:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x348f77…
05-09 05:38:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xceb333…
05-08 13:25:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	53	97¢	$51	0x2fb99e…
05-08 04:54:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x968231…
05-08 04:53:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?	No	BUY	61	98¢	$60	0x38ae69…
05-08 04:53:37	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 8?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x19ecce…
05-07 18:52:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	22	85¢	$18	0x14a898…
05-07 03:02:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 7?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x9c29f1…
05-07 03:02:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xcfed00…
05-06 03:02:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 6?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xf75fb7…
05-06 03:01:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x4aa021…
05-05 01:00:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0x1a277b…
05-05 00:59:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x5b0bb6…
05-05 00:58:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	600	3¢	$18	0xcaf617…
05-04 18:33:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	400	3¢	$12	0xf392d3…
05-02 21:40:24	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 3?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x029e25…
05-02 21:40:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x8f57fd…
05-02 21:39:04	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x5ce08c…
05-01 22:52:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x1b67cb…
05-01 22:52:08	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc8bc17…
05-01 22:51:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xaa9dd7…
05-01 01:21:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x5d9742…
05-01 01:21:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 1?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x326ed8…
04-30 02:01:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb8a619…
04-30 02:01:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 30?	No	BUY	58	100¢	$58	0xbc1e21…
04-30 01:59:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x04da85…
04-30 01:58:56	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9140d9…
04-29 04:31:18	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 29?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x86411e…
04-29 04:30:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$70	0xc88095…
04-28 01:23:10	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	98	98¢	$96	0x665411…
04-28 01:21:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 28?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x231c31…
04-28 01:20:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xdf8c56…
04-28 01:15:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$3	0x9b4735…