Realized P&L
+$327.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$22.4K
Hit rate
54.1%
Resolved
415
Trades
5,689
lifetime
Volume
$2.69M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$473
Open exposure
$98.8K
15 positions
First seen
2026-04-21
last 08-13 03:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 98 days
Categories
Politics
84%
42%
+$273,639
Other
11%
35%
+$28,369
Sports
2%
60%
+$23,490
Crypto
2%
100%
+$3,520
Tech
1%
18%
-$1,277
Pop-Culture
0%
0%
-$199
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-13).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 | No | +44,849 | $15,298 | 94¢ | $42.4K | +$27,084 | 08-10 21:34 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +35,106 | $25,378 | 88¢ | $31.1K | +$5,690 | 07-20 15:31 | |
| Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? | No | +10,361 | $6,951 | 96¢ | $10.0K | +$3,011 | 07-31 04:29 | |
| iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553 | No | +8,061 | $3,326 | 91¢ | $7.3K | +$4,010 | 08-07 18:09 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +49,708 | $13,593 | 12¢ | $5.7K | -$7,876 | 08-08 04:59 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | +12,087 | $6,787 | 8¢ | $1.0K | -$5,760 | 06-16 20:18 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | +6,071 | $1,530 | 8¢ | $516 | -$1,014 | 07-13 18:41 | |
| will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 | Yes | +4,480 | $3,365 | 6¢ | $246 | -$3,118 | 07-31 19:55 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | +5,000 | $1,438 | 3¢ | $138 | -$1,300 | 05-24 01:25 | |
| israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026 | No | +107 | -$2,186 | 98¢ | $105 | +$2,291 | 07-31 16:28 | |
| bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 | Yes | +1,179 | $212 | 8¢ | $100 | -$112 | 08-11 06:49 | |
| us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 | Yes | +1,000 | $362 | 10¢ | $95 | -$267 | 08-02 21:42 | |
| mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 | Yes | +520 | $237 | 11¢ | $57 | -$180 | 07-09 23:48 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Yes | +361 | $45 | 6¢ | $23 | -$22 | 06-21 21:46 | |
| israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632 | Yes | +73 | $46 | 6¢ | $4 | -$42 | 07-30 22:29 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | 143 | $152.9K | 346,945 | 18,873 | +328,072 | No | +$51,411 | 07-29 23:13 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | 195 | $141.3K | 321,324 | 41,524 | +279,800 | Yes | -$31,993 | 08-12 03:15 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 60 | $116.5K | 329,449 | 244,635 | +84,814 | open | — | 08-08 04:59 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | 52 | $88.7K | 155,172 | 2,000 | +153,172 | Yes | -$16,851 | 08-12 03:15 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 94 | $65.6K | 182,566 | 30,016 | +152,550 | Yes | +$41,505 | 06-15 02:43 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | 155 | $63.1K | 139,633 | 17,800 | +121,833 | No | +$13,062 | 05-30 04:31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 55 | $61.1K | 117,853 | 1,400 | +116,453 | Yes | -$7,478 | 06-16 05:51 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | 69 | $60.9K | 94,378 | 0 | +94,378 | Yes | +$4,338 | 08-10 02:49 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 79 | $58.9K | 76,726 | 34,044 | +42,682 | No | +$3,332 | 05-26 19:33 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320 | 19 | $56.8K | 187,277 | 170,066 | +17,211 | No | -$2,099 | 08-08 17:25 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | 127 | $52.6K | 86,326 | 68,049 | +18,277 | No | +$54,988 | 05-19 08:38 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | 148 | $50.2K | 175,158 | 4,055 | +171,103 | No | +$46,660 | 05-30 07:49 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | 113 | $48.9K | 191,055 | 6,136 | +184,919 | Yes | +$4,765 | 06-21 00:16 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 85 | $48.8K | 141,730 | 36,800 | +104,930 | No | +$7,259 | 05-29 22:45 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 22 | $47.5K | 57,000 | 0 | +57,000 | No | +$3,520 | 06-03 20:10 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 60 | $46.0K | 116,718 | 0 | +116,718 | Yes | -$440 | 06-16 05:52 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 40 | $44.3K | 95,973 | 4,650 | +91,323 | Yes | -$6,218 | 06-15 05:17 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 94 | $43.2K | 142,985 | 70,454 | +72,531 | Yes | +$25,188 | 07-07 19:37 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | 105 | $42.7K | 127,987 | 0 | +127,987 | Yes | -$3,192 | 06-14 17:55 |
| israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243 | 37 | $41.7K | 160,482 | 0 | +160,482 | Yes | -$26,017 | 07-31 21:15 |
| us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676 | 60 | $40.3K | 75,158 | 18,000 | +57,158 | No | +$22,377 | 08-13 03:51 |
| us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690 | 42 | $38.0K | 77,232 | 234 | +76,998 | No | +$14,011 | 08-07 23:23 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 32 | $37.5K | 292,259 | 47,346 | +244,914 | No | -$17,669 | 06-17 14:27 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | 70 | $34.7K | 121,714 | 3,108 | +118,606 | No | +$23,973 | 06-02 23:11 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | 139 | $31.2K | 125,284 | 6,051 | +119,233 | Yes | +$32,954 | 06-14 22:13 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | 47 | $30.4K | 70,353 | 14,500 | +55,853 | No | +$1,024 | 05-28 03:13 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | 133 | $28.0K | 137,514 | 0 | +137,514 | Yes | -$16,526 | 06-14 21:47 |
| israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638 | 21 | $27.7K | 120,489 | 0 | +120,489 | Yes | -$7,598 | 08-08 17:05 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | 76 | $27.5K | 76,050 | 15,206 | +60,844 | Yes | -$14,532 | 06-14 21:30 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | 37 | $25.8K | 44,772 | 4,500 | +40,272 | Yes | -$9,696 | 06-16 06:23 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||