Outlying-Personality — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$390

Unrealized P&L

+$88

Hit rate

14.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,321

lifetime

Volume

$200.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$152

Open exposure

$1.90K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 07-17 08:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

49% 25% $-390

Other

37% — —

Tech

13% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		-1,000	$-962	96¢	$-958	+$3	07-17 08:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		+1,000	$860	94¢	$945	+$85	06-10 23:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	9	$30.4K	16,450	16,450	+0	open	—	02-01 07:12
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	33	$25.1K	12,724	12,724	+0	open	—	01-31 04:01
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	18	$12.1K	7,595	5,500	+2,095	open	—	02-22 21:55
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	52	$7.6K	4,976	4,226	+750	open	—	02-26 08:20
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	11	$7.5K	9,024	0	+9,024	open	—	02-01 11:46
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	19	$5.8K	3,610	2,645	+965	open	—	03-05 06:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	96	$5.4K	8,000	7,000	+1,000	Yes	$-135	05-08 18:02
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	6	$4.9K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	02-02 06:53
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	21	$4.8K	6,992	5,406	+1,586	open	—	01-31 03:52
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	39	$4.7K	4,960	2,000	+2,960	open	—	02-18 11:54
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	147	$4.3K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	02-20 04:29
will the us next strike iran on january 15 2026 et 421	8	$4.2K	2,238	2,213	+25	open	—	01-16 05:09
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	20	$3.9K	4,728	0	+4,728	open	—	04-13 00:08
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	29	$3.7K	3,996	0	+3,996	open	—	01-25 09:12
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	3	$3.4K	3,500	0	+3,500	open	—	02-26 11:24
another us government shutdown by february 14	26	$3.1K	4,059	1,000	+3,059	open	—	02-14 11:33
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	14	$3.1K	2,600	1,000	+1,600	open	—	03-24 01:37
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 20 million 836	11	$2.2K	1,883	1,368	+515	open	—	02-16 05:05
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	4	$2.2K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	02-18 12:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$2.1K	1,217	1,217	+0	open	—	01-16 07:20
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	12	$2.1K	3,436	0	+3,436	open	—	02-04 17:34
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	6	$2.1K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	02-04 20:24
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	6	$2.0K	3,000	1,000	+2,000	open	—	02-16 16:12
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	3	$1.8K	1,500	500	+1,000	open	—	02-11 08:22
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	8	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-29 11:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-16 14:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	9	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-06 19:27
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$1.6K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	02-20 14:07
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	6	$1.4K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	02-23 16:29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	8	$1.4K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	02-18 21:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 08:54:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$962	0x1fe23a…
06-10 23:07:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0x08d4e2…
06-08 15:34:19	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x6ed534…
06-07 21:18:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$990	0xc47f0d…
05-31 17:19:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	81¢	$18	0x28e9f3…
05-31 17:18:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	452	81¢	$366	0x50ba0e…
05-16 14:07:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xed3abd…
05-16 14:04:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xe1f4d6…
05-16 14:02:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdc63fb…
05-16 14:02:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	990	96¢	$947	0x24e412…
05-08 18:02:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	49¢	$490	0x86b082…
05-07 19:56:36	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	No	BUY	1,000	46¢	$460	0x489edf…
05-04 17:49:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	500	65¢	$325	0xd879f6…
05-03 20:56:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	142	80¢	$114	0x89c044…
05-03 20:55:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	350	80¢	$280	0xdded9c…
05-03 20:55:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x65ef20…
05-02 23:03:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	448	86¢	$385	0x43e12f…
05-02 23:03:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	52	86¢	$45	0x5daf0c…
05-02 21:19:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$65	0x1667f0…
05-02 19:10:28	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0xcd888a…
05-01 20:11:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,000	79¢	$790	0x0fee15…
05-01 16:49:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	232	31¢	$72	0xa2e390…
05-01 16:45:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	449	31¢	$139	0x2b5ee9…
05-01 16:31:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x7a13fb…
05-01 16:24:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xf29bd5…
05-01 16:22:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x16b391…
05-01 16:14:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xb46b5e…
05-01 16:07:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x00da90…
05-01 16:07:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x041b03…
05-01 16:06:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xf801b6…
05-01 15:53:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	281	31¢	$87	0xef7127…
05-01 15:34:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xc0d318…
05-01 15:32:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xdb4912…
05-01 15:32:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x982152…
05-01 15:27:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xb6767c…
05-01 15:27:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x6787a7…
05-01 15:05:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x115b85…
04-29 01:07:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	57	34¢	$19	0xb5b6dc…
04-29 00:51:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xe85447…
04-29 00:45:14	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	152	34¢	$52	0x197a32…
04-29 00:34:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	118	34¢	$40	0xce1c79…
04-29 00:26:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x23f639…
04-28 22:42:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc07dc7…
04-28 22:17:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x300812…
04-28 22:01:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x75d4fc…
04-28 21:49:10	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	125	34¢	$42	0x7ce6a0…
04-19 09:07:40	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x730122…
04-17 13:28:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	457	41¢	$187	0x4445aa…
04-17 13:28:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc3e651…
04-17 13:28:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0xc2a27f…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	67	41¢	$27	0x6a1395…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x5bfd37…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x5b7268…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x47b8df…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x1c9966…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x178eb4…
04-17 13:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x1756a4…
04-17 13:28:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xee496d…
04-17 13:28:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x3d243c…
04-17 13:28:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x2aae6f…
04-17 13:28:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x135106…
04-17 13:28:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xb1490e…
04-17 13:28:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x1cd912…
04-17 13:28:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xfbd4ba…
04-17 13:28:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xf386cc…
04-17 13:28:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	200	41¢	$82	0x70fd50…
04-17 13:28:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0xfc9725…
04-17 13:28:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xaf6750…
04-17 13:28:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	33	41¢	$14	0x6decdb…
04-17 13:28:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x6c9eec…
04-17 13:28:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x5efee0…
04-17 13:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xe5fbae…
04-17 13:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x6cb8f7…
04-17 13:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x3cece7…
04-17 13:28:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x10189f…
04-17 13:28:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	73	41¢	$30	0xd6ca58…
04-17 13:28:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xee05c7…
04-17 13:28:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xdfbdc6…
04-17 13:28:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xb1397e…
04-17 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0xbcdc42…
04-17 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	72	41¢	$30	0x218c7b…
04-17 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x17a86d…
04-17 13:28:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	41	41¢	$17	0x16a6b0…
04-14 06:14:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	945	28¢	$265	0x34a9fc…
04-14 06:14:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	55	28¢	$15	0x94610a…
04-14 06:06:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	128	17¢	$22	0x0a8262…
04-14 06:06:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x69fd80…
04-14 05:41:21	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	241	17¢	$41	0xcbb92b…
04-14 05:29:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	531	17¢	$90	0x2557fb…
04-13 04:58:57	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	79¢	$237	0x27eb83…
04-13 00:08:47	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	135	81¢	$109	0x050744…
04-12 23:13:19	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	85	81¢	$69	0xa426ab…
04-12 20:45:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0xf8c927…
04-12 15:48:27	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	78	78¢	$61	0x167c24…
04-12 13:01:07	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	706	81¢	$572	0x57e5e7…
04-12 07:17:23	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0x58468e…
04-12 02:25:43	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	294	81¢	$238	0x2377f9…
04-10 17:23:23	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x138c9c…
04-10 10:11:57	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	53	83¢	$44	0x7280df…
04-10 09:00:21	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	216	83¢	$180	0x65a462…