Tan-Creativity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.24K

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

73.5%

Resolved

392

Trades

1,685

lifetime

Volume

$44.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$247

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-21 17:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 140 days

Categories

Politics

63% 63% +$1,220

Other

31% 55% +$521

Crypto

3% 57% -$248

Sports

2% 29% -$220

Tech

2% 46% -$26

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$62	38¢	$75	+$13	10-20 08:23
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$59	67¢	$67	+$8	10-20 08:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+110	$63	56¢	$61	-$2	10-20 13:15
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+200	$22	11¢	$21	-$1	10-20 13:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+50	$17	30¢	$15	-$2	10-20 13:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+100	$21	8¢	$8	-$14	10-20 13:20
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+30	$1	3¢	$1	$0	10-20 16:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike cyprus in march	8	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$54	03-28 22:32
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	17	$1.1K	712	712	+0	Yes	-$58	06-22 08:32
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$1.0K	1,038	0	+1,038	No	+$24	02-27 06:01
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	1	$1.0K	1,017	0	+1,017	No	+$5	02-25 21:02
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$902	980	0	+980	No	+$78	02-18 15:46
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$883	560	420	+140	No	+$23	03-29 12:56
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	5	$839	600	300	+300	No	+$23	04-23 18:25
starmer out by june 22 2026	20	$827	680	480	+200	Yes	+$2	06-22 08:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	29	$793	480	480	+0	No	-$26	05-12 15:34
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	28	$762	519	519	+0	Yes	+$70	02-16 14:00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$746	440	400	+40	No	-$2	05-18 20:15
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	33	$718	434	434	+0	open	—	07-20 14:40
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	4	$693	400	400	+0	No	+$77	03-22 12:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	14	$682	640	376	+264	Yes	+$33	06-16 07:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$667	719	0	+719	Yes	+$52	06-15 07:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$664	457	357	+100	No	+$80	03-25 13:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	4	$647	350	350	+0	Yes	+$45	07-26 10:11
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	8	$635	722	522	+200	Yes	-$91	05-07 15:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	16	$634	330	330	+0	Yes	-$11	02-18 11:01
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$477	513	0	+513	Yes	+$17	06-01 16:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	1	$460	511	0	+511	Yes	+$51	09-22 09:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	33	$454	451	351	+100	No	+$17	08-06 21:07
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	16	$446	340	340	+0	No	+$25	06-12 14:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	5	$441	361	361	+0	No	+$87	08-25 09:08
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$410	2,750	2,700	+50	No	-$5	06-10 09:30
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?	3	$406	420	0	+420	No	+$14	04-03 14:22
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	45	$392	2,724	2,649	+75	No	-$74	06-13 20:15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	6	$390	388	200	+188	No	-$12	06-15 06:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	6	$386	100	300	-200	No	-$4	05-21 19:33
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	18	$378	370	370	+0	Yes	+$132	08-09 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 17:00:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x441790…
10-20 21:27:35	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	75¢	$13	0xbd89b2…
10-20 16:40:15	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0xe2c9a4…
10-20 15:43:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0xa66f8a…
10-20 15:35:08	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	71¢	$19	0xbf45aa…
10-20 13:59:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x913f7b…
10-20 13:20:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x90f17a…
10-20 13:15:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x50a610…
10-20 13:14:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x067129…
10-20 13:09:59	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xd5adef…
10-20 13:09:24	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x026c93…
10-20 13:07:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x330e40…
10-20 13:04:44	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xea0789…
10-20 08:23:28	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x1544e2…
10-20 08:21:35	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xeb0796…
09-22 09:41:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	511	90¢	$460	0x174ca2…
09-21 10:09:02	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0x749b1f…
09-21 09:18:18	Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x3f65e2…
09-21 09:17:09	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xaa08a1…
09-20 19:24:58	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xd465e2…
09-20 19:24:35	Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x20e7cf…
09-20 19:23:19	Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x78f2a7…
09-20 19:07:14	Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%?	Under	SELL	33	89¢	$29	0x6499ea…
09-20 16:52:48	Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xc8ce61…
09-20 16:47:12	Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xbc53a7…
09-20 16:46:46	Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	No	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0xb5fa49…
09-20 16:42:21	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	70	18¢	$13	0xed5395…
09-20 15:36:22	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	70	46¢	$32	0xd91d42…
09-20 12:32:19	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0xbdd39d…
09-20 09:57:49	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x407f67…
09-20 09:57:40	Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xbfd205…
09-20 09:57:00	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xea8904…
09-20 09:56:42	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0x48f7c4…
09-20 09:56:19	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0xb6ee17…
09-20 09:50:13	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x793a7b…
09-18 09:52:37	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x5bf8be…
09-18 07:57:39	Will SPD win between 28% and 31% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x79d5b0…
09-18 07:56:57	Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7f7773…
09-18 07:56:48	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	Linke	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xd5f18f…
09-18 07:56:30	Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x6efdbf…
09-18 07:35:42	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0xc2a725…
09-17 08:04:57	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb02838…
09-17 05:20:31	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x2dbe61…
09-17 05:20:31	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0x1c0472…
09-16 13:35:27	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xc95dc1…
09-16 09:22:46	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0xde344f…
09-16 09:21:22	Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0x4f8513…
09-16 08:10:00	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x508072…
09-16 08:06:27	Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	35	81¢	$28	0xc50dd6…
09-16 08:04:03	Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6b3744…
09-16 08:02:00	Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x0c223e…
09-16 07:59:10	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x3d7328…
09-16 07:59:10	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x17b2f0…
09-16 07:59:00	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x54d072…
09-15 06:15:25	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xd8de67…
09-15 06:13:16	Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xec6d7d…
09-15 06:12:39	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	SELL	50	57¢	$29	0xd031ec…
09-15 06:11:30	Will SPD win between 28% and 31% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x829f9b…
09-15 06:06:57	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0xda413a…
09-15 06:05:51	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x4c4116…
09-15 06:03:52	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xdf51e1…
09-15 06:02:42	Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x9c7f16…
09-15 06:02:04	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x14ff02…
09-14 17:28:01	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x05bff5…
09-14 15:57:36	Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%?	Under	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xa36d66…
09-14 12:07:03	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x6c9c01…
09-14 12:04:33	Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x9d5bab…
09-14 12:03:33	Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x9f9261…
09-11 14:02:13	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0xf3a8f1…
09-10 17:49:21	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x53e51d…
09-10 15:27:06	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	Linke	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x5b90dd…
09-10 15:18:57	Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x066015…
09-10 15:17:33	Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x4422e3…
09-10 15:14:28	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x8f15f3…
09-09 22:37:01	Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0x298a84…
09-09 20:50:10	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xc9e3b7…
09-09 17:07:19	Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x842445…
09-09 14:08:12	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x3edd6a…
09-09 14:01:34	Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%?	Under	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x6e2389…
09-09 09:46:10	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	65	7¢	$4	0xcede0b…
09-09 09:44:12	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xa4bd35…
09-09 09:44:12	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x47d58f…
09-09 07:39:48	Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x7d78c8…
09-09 07:37:51	Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x7a6e92…
09-09 07:36:55	Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xf31b5b…
09-08 23:24:31	Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%?	Under	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x9dfd69…
09-08 19:04:28	Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x46a9e3…
09-08 18:39:03	Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x7ce983…
09-08 18:37:40	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x8f0fc5…
09-08 18:37:07	Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xcc203d…
09-08 18:35:57	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0x8ef63d…
09-08 18:35:55	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xe129f0…
09-08 18:34:27	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x9ea100…
09-08 18:33:07	laptop fdv above 500m one day after launch	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x3840d1…
09-08 18:29:58	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x135d95…
09-08 11:48:00	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x36b6ef…
09-08 09:30:10	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x5c6121…
09-08 08:44:22	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x6edfc1…
09-08 08:37:22	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0x4ad290…
09-08 08:35:55	Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xdb3536…