Tan-Creativity — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$152

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

22.3%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

1,743 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.48K

$45.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$353

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-05 13:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 145 days

Categories

Politics

62% 61% +$1,091

Other

32% 54% +$362

Crypto

2% 57% -$248

Sports

2% 29% -$220

Tech

2% 46% -$26

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+250	$202	78¢	$194	-$9	11-05 10:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	+136	$124	92¢	$126	+$2	11-04 14:40
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+200	$22	12¢	$25	+$3	10-20 13:09
Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	+8	$2	99¢	$8	+$6	11-04 14:26
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+30	$1	3¢	$1	$0	10-20 16:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+100	$21	0¢	$0	-$21	10-20 13:20
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$4	56¢	$0	+$4	11-04 15:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike cyprus in march	8	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$54	03-28 22:32
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	17	$1.1K	712	712	+0	Yes	-$58	06-22 08:32
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$1.0K	1,038	0	+1,038	No	+$24	02-27 06:01
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	1	$1.0K	1,017	0	+1,017	No	+$5	02-25 21:02
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$902	980	0	+980	No	+$78	02-18 15:46
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$883	560	420	+140	No	+$23	03-29 12:56
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	5	$839	600	300	+300	No	+$23	04-23 18:25
starmer out by june 22 2026	20	$827	680	480	+200	Yes	+$2	06-22 08:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	29	$793	480	480	+0	No	-$26	05-12 15:34
will turnout in the second round of the 2026 portuguese presidential election be between 50 and 52	28	$762	519	519	+0	Yes	+$70	02-16 14:00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$746	440	400	+40	No	-$2	05-18 20:15
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	33	$718	434	434	+0	open	—	07-20 14:40
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	4	$693	400	400	+0	No	+$77	03-22 12:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	14	$682	640	376	+264	Yes	+$33	06-16 07:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$667	719	0	+719	Yes	+$52	06-15 07:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$664	457	357	+100	No	+$80	03-25 13:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	4	$647	350	350	+0	Yes	+$45	07-26 10:11
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	8	$635	722	522	+200	Yes	-$91	05-07 15:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	16	$634	330	330	+0	Yes	-$11	02-18 11:01
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	4	$477	513	0	+513	Yes	+$17	06-01 16:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	1	$460	511	0	+511	Yes	+$51	09-22 09:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	33	$454	451	351	+100	No	+$17	08-06 21:07
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	16	$446	340	340	+0	No	+$25	06-12 14:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	5	$441	361	361	+0	No	+$87	08-25 09:08
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$410	2,750	2,700	+50	No	-$5	06-10 09:30
Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?	3	$406	420	0	+420	No	+$14	04-03 14:22
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	45	$392	2,724	2,649	+75	No	-$74	06-13 20:15
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	6	$390	388	200	+188	No	-$12	06-15 06:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	6	$386	100	300	-200	No	-$4	05-21 19:33
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	18	$378	370	370	+0	Yes	+$132	08-09 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 13:01:22	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	96	34¢	$32	0x2a7057…
11-05 13:01:21	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	34¢	$2	0xd35db5…
11-05 10:36:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	250	81¢	$202	0xaed66e…
11-04 17:38:49	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 80?	Yes	SELL	130	95¢	$124	0xf2f18e…
11-04 16:11:22	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x8645aa…
11-04 15:56:51	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	72	63¢	$45	0xafafd4…
11-04 15:13:36	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	63¢	$14	0x2e570e…
11-04 15:13:09	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	63¢	$4	0xdeeb95…
11-04 14:48:09	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xc73a95…
11-04 14:40:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	136	91¢	$124	0x7d3fef…
11-04 14:26:43	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	SELL	42	83¢	$35	0xfc33fd…
11-04 11:39:49	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 80?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xbf1f61…
11-04 11:09:54	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 80?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x9558ca…
11-04 11:09:49	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 80?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xca97a9…
11-01 08:18:03	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	84	8¢	$7	0x9819aa…
10-31 04:43:28	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xcbcf2d…
10-31 04:06:33	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x21b90e…
10-31 04:00:31	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x8c4efb…
10-31 03:54:57	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x1ba429…
10-31 03:54:49	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x067ad7…
10-31 03:51:48	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xeff0c7…
10-31 03:48:39	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x415439…
10-31 03:48:12	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x326de9…
10-31 03:46:46	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xaa8f28…
10-31 03:38:39	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x256417…
10-31 03:37:16	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x45c27f…
10-31 02:44:58	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x71ed45…
10-31 02:41:39	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xc07582…
10-31 02:32:13	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xdf821e…
10-31 02:28:49	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x600bab…
10-31 02:26:52	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xfb4273…
10-31 00:47:39	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x844cce…
10-31 00:43:57	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x5873e1…
10-31 00:32:52	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xc85a1b…
10-31 00:26:55	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xaf4931…
10-31 00:25:45	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x4d071a…
10-31 00:21:55	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x0632a3…
10-31 00:11:19	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x1ad71f…
10-31 00:06:03	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x1d4816…
10-31 00:03:37	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x71f12c…
10-30 23:01:49	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xefa4b7…
10-30 22:05:03	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x3c7063…
10-30 20:12:43	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd05fc0…
10-30 19:06:01	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$6	0x5d561e…
10-30 19:05:22	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$5	0xabb028…
10-29 22:36:54	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x58a392…
10-29 15:15:25	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x1408e9…
10-29 13:35:17	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xcc19cb…
10-29 13:13:41	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x096e66…
10-29 12:02:10	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x62d92f…
10-29 11:56:56	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x27fbec…
10-29 11:16:23	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6a4cfa…
10-29 11:10:28	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf9ea8a…
10-29 10:52:16	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 80?	Yes	BUY	160	81¢	$130	0x06af8b…
10-29 10:49:29	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xe8da88…
10-29 10:44:28	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xbd34b4…
10-29 10:40:10	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xab22fa…
10-29 10:10:05	Will "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x16d68a…
10-21 17:00:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x441790…
10-20 21:27:35	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	75¢	$13	0xbd89b2…
10-20 16:40:15	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0xe2c9a4…
10-20 15:43:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0xa66f8a…
10-20 15:35:08	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	71¢	$19	0xbf45aa…
10-20 13:59:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x913f7b…
10-20 13:20:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x90f17a…
10-20 13:15:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x50a610…
10-20 13:14:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x067129…
10-20 13:09:59	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xd5adef…
10-20 13:09:24	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x026c93…
10-20 13:07:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x330e40…
10-20 13:04:44	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xea0789…
10-20 08:23:28	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x1544e2…
10-20 08:21:35	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xeb0796…
09-22 09:41:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	511	90¢	$460	0x174ca2…
09-21 10:09:02	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0x749b1f…
09-21 09:18:18	Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	22	0¢	$0	0x3f65e2…
09-21 09:17:09	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xaa08a1…
09-20 19:24:58	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xd465e2…
09-20 19:24:35	Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x20e7cf…
09-20 19:23:19	Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x78f2a7…
09-20 19:07:14	Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%?	Under	SELL	33	89¢	$29	0x6499ea…
09-20 16:52:48	Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xc8ce61…
09-20 16:47:12	Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xbc53a7…
09-20 16:46:46	Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	No	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0xb5fa49…
09-20 16:42:21	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	70	18¢	$13	0xed5395…
09-20 15:36:22	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	70	46¢	$32	0xd91d42…
09-20 12:32:19	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0xbdd39d…
09-20 09:57:49	Will Grüne win at least 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x407f67…
09-20 09:57:40	Will Grüne win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xbfd205…
09-20 09:57:00	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0xea8904…
09-20 09:56:42	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0x48f7c4…
09-20 09:56:19	Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0xb6ee17…
09-20 09:50:13	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x793a7b…
09-18 09:52:37	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x5bf8be…
09-18 07:57:39	Will SPD win between 28% and 31% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x79d5b0…
09-18 07:56:57	Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7f7773…
09-18 07:56:48	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	Linke	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xd5f18f…
09-18 07:56:30	Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x6efdbf…
09-18 07:35:42	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0xc2a725…
09-17 08:04:57	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb02838…