Genuine-Duckling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$80

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-26 08:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

71% 93% -$61

Crypto

23% 100% +$2

Sports

3% 50% -$22

Politics

2% 80% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$521	288	288	+0	No	+$3	01-07 15:05
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	2	$492	272	272	+0	No	-$30	01-09 00:35
highest temperature in lucknow on march 17 2026 42corhigher	2	$470	235	235	+0	No	+$0	03-18 09:02
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	2	$439	220	220	+0	No	+$1	04-20 18:36
highest temperature in lucknow on march 28 2026 41c	1	$235	235	0	+235	No	+$0	03-28 03:14
highest temperature in lucknow on march 19 2026 43c	1	$235	235	0	+235	No	+$0	03-18 09:03
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 100 119	1	$231	232	0	+232	No	+$0	01-15 03:22
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on September 12?	1	$173	173	0	+173	No	+$0	09-10 15:53
highest temperature in lucknow on march 11 2026 45corhigher	1	$125	125	0	+125	No	+$0	03-10 07:03
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	1	$121	121	0	+121	No	+$0	01-27 03:25
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	1	$111	111	0	+111	No	+$0	01-27 03:25
highest temperature in lucknow on march 10 2026 40c	1	$110	110	0	+110	No	+$0	03-10 07:03
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	2	$109	159	0	+159	Yes	+$51	02-08 09:26
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 140 159	1	$105	105	0	+105	No	+$0	02-27 12:32
bitcoin above 100k on february 4	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-02 09:20
Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	2	$98	49	49	+0	No	+$0	05-17 17:25
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	2	$76	38	38	+0	No	+$0	05-23 05:52
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	3	$73	230	0	+230	No	-$73	02-08 09:30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	2	$69	36	36	+0	open	—	08-25 23:36
will the price of bitcoin be between 94000 96000 on february 3	1	$66	66	0	+66	No	+$0	02-02 09:21
bitcoin above 92k on february 3	1	$66	66	0	+66	No	+$0	02-02 09:20
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$64	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-23 20:56
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	2	$59	32	32	+0	open	—	08-23 08:13
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$54	27	27	+0	open	—	10-26 08:25
will clear street group incs market cap be between 9pt0b and 9pt5b at market close on ipo day	3	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	03-06 11:18
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$49	26	26	+0	Yes	$0	02-27 12:28
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	10-26 08:25
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on July 6?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	07-05 09:42
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 6?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	07-05 09:41
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on July 6?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	07-05 09:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 08:25:29	Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x49d760…
10-26 08:25:02	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x123597…
09-10 15:53:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on September 12?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x8bb910…
09-10 15:03:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xcb1a43…
08-25 23:36:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0xbd2213…
08-23 08:22:57	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa92c07…
08-23 08:20:03	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 39°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x44dddc…
08-23 08:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 24?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1ea994…
08-23 08:19:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe14e4f…
08-23 08:18:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or below on August 24?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x615702…
08-23 08:17:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on August 26?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf3a845…
08-23 08:17:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on August 25?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x3571ce…
08-23 08:15:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xa05ee0…
08-23 08:13:12	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	32	92¢	$29	0xe9c02a…
08-08 08:15:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x4eb7b5…
08-08 08:14:48	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0xd50499…
08-08 08:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 10?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8791c7…
08-08 08:13:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 39°C or higher on August 9?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x45d73a…
08-08 08:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or below on August 10?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xfb2e99…
08-08 08:12:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x08387a…
08-08 08:12:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on August 10?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x619e22…
08-08 08:12:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 9?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x352c00…
07-05 09:46:53	xrp above 0pt8 on july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xddbaf7…
07-05 09:45:37	Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on July 8?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x721f86…
07-05 09:43:17	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 5?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x9bae41…
07-05 09:42:41	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on July 6?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x5611ac…
07-05 09:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C or below on July 7?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x391a03…
07-05 09:41:35	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 6?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x596f55…
07-05 09:39:29	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on July 6?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9f0ec1…
06-14 13:54:51	Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 16?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8a87f7…
06-14 13:54:33	Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x88f7ab…
06-14 13:53:34	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x8776a7…
06-14 13:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 16?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x4d4568…
06-14 13:52:34	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 16?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x337840…
06-14 13:52:18	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3a57b0…
06-14 13:51:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfe3e9c…
06-14 13:50:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 16?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x0230b5…
06-14 13:50:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x99939b…
06-14 13:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd8ad50…
06-14 13:49:15	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6f8171…
06-14 13:48:51	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on June 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa98b8a…
05-23 20:56:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xaee651…
05-23 18:52:04	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x8a2d14…
05-23 05:52:28	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xc03e67…
05-17 17:25:57	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x074f02…
05-10 03:12:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	16	84¢	$14	0x2e536c…
05-10 03:12:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x1c5e8f…
05-10 03:11:40	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x5df3e1…
05-10 03:11:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x4f21c0…
05-10 03:11:00	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x79eed1…
05-10 03:10:28	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0xf1419c…
05-10 03:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 10?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x090ede…
05-10 03:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 11?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xd905e8…
04-20 18:36:44	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	220	100¢	$220	0xfdd177…
04-18 11:41:40	highest temperature in lucknow on april 19 2026 49c	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x187dc7…
04-05 02:45:53	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$219	0x194dcb…
03-28 03:14:09	highest temperature in lucknow on march 28 2026 41c	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0xe15bd8…
03-18 09:03:17	highest temperature in lucknow on march 19 2026 43c	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0x329bb9…
03-18 09:02:15	highest temperature in lucknow on march 17 2026 42corhigher	No	SELL	235	100¢	$235	0x2cb945…
03-16 02:36:45	highest temperature in lucknow on march 17 2026 42corhigher	No	BUY	235	100¢	$235	0xfaa8d0…
03-10 07:03:51	highest temperature in lucknow on march 10 2026 40c	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xc5fbcd…
03-10 07:03:37	highest temperature in lucknow on march 11 2026 45corhigher	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x59d705…
03-06 11:18:49	will clear street group incs market cap be between 9pt0b and 9pt5b at market close on ipo day	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x72550f…
03-04 17:04:31	will clear street group incs market cap be between 9pt0b and 9pt5b at market close on ipo day	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x54bb8c…
02-27 12:32:11	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 140 159	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xe2e7fc…
02-27 12:29:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x78b2a2…
02-27 12:28:37	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	26	94¢	$24	0x5237a4…
02-13 14:32:27	will spacex have less than or equal to 5 launches in february	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x2e8eec…
02-13 14:31:07	odds of us strikes iran in february over 50 by feb 13	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe48f7b…
02-13 14:30:47	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xa8eb07…
02-13 14:30:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xc74d69…
02-13 14:29:23	will clear street group incs market cap be between 9pt0b and 9pt5b at market close on ipo day	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x89f5ec…
02-13 14:29:05	will nflx reach 368 in february	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbf218b…
02-13 14:28:31	will nflx close between 80 and 90 week february 13 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xdae9c2…
02-13 14:27:33	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x192ef1…
02-13 14:26:05	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0xba88b5…
02-13 14:25:39	us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbde0dc…
02-08 09:30:29	will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	120	32¢	$38	0x61621b…
02-08 09:26:47	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	120	68¢	$82	0x2d880b…
02-08 09:24:19	will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	39	68¢	$27	0x841e6a…
02-08 09:24:11	will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	84	32¢	$27	0xa085c2…
02-08 09:22:39	will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	Yes	BUY	26	32¢	$8	0x2e835c…
02-02 09:21:20	will the price of bitcoin be between 94000 96000 on february 3	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x901512…
02-02 09:20:52	bitcoin above 100k on february 4	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x90220b…
02-02 09:20:40	bitcoin above 92k on february 3	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xbe6463…
01-27 03:25:27	will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xef108d…
01-27 03:25:13	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xc1aec5…
01-15 03:22:00	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 100 119	No	BUY	232	100¢	$231	0x6b81c1…
01-09 00:35:00	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	No	SELL	272	85¢	$231	0x192309…
01-08 03:35:09	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	No	BUY	272	96¢	$261	0x45cef9…
01-07 15:05:59	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	288	91¢	$262	0x2da491…
01-04 13:38:33	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	288	90¢	$259	0xe3373f…