Polite-Belief 0xc33d05…f41b02
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$10.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$202
Hit rate
74.5%
Resolved
90
Trades
1,190
lifetime
Volume
$252.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$212
Open exposure
$23.1K
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-26 08:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 58 days
Categories
Politics
68% 48% +$16,353
Other
30% 45% -$5,999
Tech
1% 0% -$100
Crypto
0% 50% +$208
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$73
Sports
0% 0% -$22
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
39 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +8,000 $7,200 92¢ $7.3K +$120 10-15 11:41
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -5,148 -$4,401 96¢ $-4940 -$539 08-29 08:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +6,100 $4,392 55¢ $3.3K -$1,067 10-26 08:46
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,800 $2,044 96¢ $2.7K +$630 10-15 21:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -2,500 -$2,000 82¢ $-2037 -$37 07-26 10:22
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +1,100 $693 68¢ $742 +$50 10-10 17:42
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +1,000 $570 68¢ $675 +$105 10-20 07:02
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +529 -$420 97¢ $513 +$933 10-14 06:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +750 -$82 65¢ $485 +$567 10-13 18:29
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,000 $200 12¢ $250 +$50 08-30 20:03
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +500 $500 26¢ $127 -$372 10-14 12:34
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes +1,000 $170 3¢ $34 -$135 10-07 19:24
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +250 $515 4¢ $10 -$505 10-05 14:53