Useless-Doctrine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

39.0%

Resolved

Trades

224

lifetime

Volume

$16.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

$160

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-25 23:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

57% 50% +$0

Politics

28% — —

Sports

15% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+152	$142	96¢	$146	+$4	06-13 18:25
Will Alberta join the US?	Yes		+587	$25	2¢	$14	$-11	06-03 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	9	$1.0K	531	531	+0	Yes	+$1	04-23 16:37
Will Alberta join the US?	13	$976	1,366	779	+587	open	—	06-06 00:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$687	828	828	+0	open	—	06-15 04:46
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	10	$653	975	975	+0	No	$-0	04-06 19:58
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	6	$652	558	558	+0	open	—	06-25 16:05
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$611	475	475	+0	No	+$0	04-24 17:58
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$593	933	933	+0	open	—	04-21 08:56
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	6	$567	309	309	+0	open	—	06-24 19:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	5	$562	287	287	+0	open	—	05-20 17:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	7	$482	173	318	-145	open	—	05-23 11:22
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$455	399	196	+203	open	—	06-01 22:36
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	5	$341	308	308	+0	open	—	06-25 06:44
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$338	379	146	+233	open	—	06-14 18:38
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$336	334	334	+0	open	—	04-06 22:36
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	7	$325	656	656	+0	open	—	04-24 11:23
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	2	$313	161	161	+0	open	—	06-13 11:07
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	6	$313	371	371	+0	open	—	06-05 11:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	10	$312	490	490	+0	open	—	05-18 16:32
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$310	158	158	+0	open	—	04-22 08:29
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$309	162	162	+0	open	—	04-22 01:46
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$301	155	155	+0	open	—	03-16 12:31
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$301	154	154	+0	No	$-0	04-03 21:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$301	478	478	+0	open	—	04-22 19:18
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$300	154	154	+0	open	—	03-17 11:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$299	299	299	+0	open	—	06-06 21:08
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$299	152	152	+0	open	—	04-09 01:19
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	3	$298	184	184	+0	open	—	06-10 07:01
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$286	145	145	+0	open	—	05-20 10:23
Netanyahu out by June 30?	4	$284	144	144	+0	open	—	06-13 17:22
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$283	145	145	+0	open	—	04-26 17:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 23:01:56	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xa91e4e…
06-25 23:01:55	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x5bdbba…
06-25 23:00:05	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	93	97¢	$90	0x79ec10…
06-25 21:26:31	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	92	97¢	$89	0x2f3e0e…
06-25 21:26:31	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x075365…
06-25 18:29:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	38	35¢	$13	0xf33f9e…
06-25 18:29:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	85	35¢	$30	0x932c6b…
06-25 18:29:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	114	35¢	$40	0x73d3b2…
06-25 18:29:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	54	35¢	$19	0x37d173…
06-25 16:51:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	46	35¢	$16	0xb15723…
06-25 16:51:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	170	35¢	$59	0x754ad3…
06-25 16:51:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	75	35¢	$26	0xfe3e10…
06-25 16:05:40	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	158	92¢	$146	0x1ef308…
06-25 14:00:47	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	158	92¢	$146	0x36af8f…
06-25 06:44:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	150	97¢	$146	0xd6ead7…
06-25 05:29:26	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	150	97¢	$146	0xd92fe4…
06-24 19:50:58	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	144	92¢	$132	0x03a355…
06-24 18:27:08	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	144	92¢	$132	0x21b09d…
06-24 07:30:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	133	98¢	$130	0x4bf03d…
06-24 07:30:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x45f892…
06-24 03:11:14	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	135	97¢	$131	0x6f947d…
06-23 21:01:20	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	67	3¢	$2	0x1085ec…
06-23 21:01:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	224	3¢	$7	0xc53e67…
06-23 20:58:38	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	118	3¢	$4	0x9a853e…
06-23 20:58:38	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	173	3¢	$5	0x8a2e00…
06-23 16:43:43	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	228	11¢	$24	0xc46c4d…
06-23 14:12:49	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	228	14¢	$32	0x79fd67…
06-20 16:35:14	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	172	88¢	$152	0x967dcd…
06-20 14:26:23	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	172	88¢	$152	0x5860a9…
06-18 16:19:59	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0xe4cf04…
06-18 16:18:29	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	143	92¢	$132	0xb860af…
06-18 16:18:29	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x2219cd…
06-18 11:56:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	165	91¢	$150	0x9f5fc9…
06-18 03:44:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	177	77¢	$136	0xba72ff…
06-18 02:08:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	177	77¢	$136	0xcc8892…
06-17 01:01:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	4¢	$15	0x2ac9aa…
06-17 00:54:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	4¢	$3	0xdff5dd…
06-17 00:54:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x33f518…
06-17 00:54:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	4¢	$6	0x7f840a…
06-15 21:39:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	150	90¢	$135	0xdd5992…
06-15 17:05:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0x4c5535…
06-15 04:46:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	399	37¢	$148	0xd4ddc5…
06-15 00:33:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	399	37¢	$148	0x27e696…
06-14 18:38:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	146	65¢	$95	0xe1a269…
06-14 16:40:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	69¢	$101	0xe16c56…
06-14 09:59:36	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	158	15¢	$23	0xe2e088…
06-14 07:52:42	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xc684f0…
06-14 07:52:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	150	17¢	$25	0x23a9f7…
06-13 18:25:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x6d1c1d…
06-13 18:25:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	88	94¢	$82	0x4b0ad4…
06-13 17:22:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x86de62…
06-13 15:31:42	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0x02598b…
06-13 11:18:04	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0x6625f3…
06-13 11:18:04	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4e53cd…
06-13 11:07:37	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	161	97¢	$156	0x448c41…
06-13 09:00:48	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	161	97¢	$157	0xf47c02…
06-12 21:58:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	61¢	$142	0x482ce5…
06-12 10:23:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	222	53¢	$118	0x582eb0…
06-12 10:23:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	45	53¢	$24	0x230558…
06-12 07:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xfc68c4…
06-12 07:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	254	56¢	$142	0x94d8d3…
06-10 07:01:30	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	112	81¢	$91	0xa35d32…
06-10 07:01:30	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	72	81¢	$58	0x1d2593…
06-10 02:28:18	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	184	81¢	$149	0xcb4195…
06-08 23:59:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	142	12¢	$17	0x800180…
06-08 22:26:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xb971fa…
06-08 22:26:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	126	12¢	$15	0x534277…
06-07 09:18:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0xc982d4…
06-07 09:18:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	122	31¢	$38	0x65b5df…
06-07 06:47:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	162	31¢	$50	0xe2db04…
06-06 21:08:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	50¢	$17	0xcdae9f…
06-06 21:08:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x5d1e29…
06-06 21:08:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	245	50¢	$122	0x16cc70…
06-06 18:39:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	299	50¢	$150	0xb77220…
06-06 11:45:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0x779e36…
06-06 10:16:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x5d87a7…
06-06 00:34:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	128	95¢	$122	0xc0a093…
06-06 00:34:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	28	95¢	$27	0x59a8cd…
06-05 21:12:52	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$149	0x286479…
06-05 16:50:33	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	1¢	$2	0x74a33d…
06-05 14:25:39	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	2¢	$3	0x0f910f…
06-05 11:35:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	219	4¢	$8	0xd9f40d…
06-05 09:38:28	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	113	3¢	$4	0xbd3ad7…
06-05 09:38:28	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	106	3¢	$3	0x24a945…
06-04 17:47:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	172	96¢	$164	0x5dd6b5…
06-04 15:46:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	172	96¢	$164	0x636a19…
06-03 22:43:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	155	47¢	$73	0x7bab5a…
06-03 20:28:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	155	47¢	$73	0x278570…
06-03 16:50:18	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x50f9ee…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	113	31¢	$35	0x87f2c1…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	31¢	$19	0x44dacd…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	162	31¢	$50	0x3f3746…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x2b24a5…
06-03 14:38:31	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	452	31¢	$140	0x61e2dd…
06-03 09:02:47	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	113	4¢	$5	0x7cc84d…
06-03 06:45:52	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	113	4¢	$5	0xe8eb92…
06-02 12:43:44	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	587	4¢	$25	0x9b363c…
06-01 22:36:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	203	81¢	$164	0xb50c06…
06-01 15:49:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0x66127b…
06-01 15:49:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0x14a6e9…