Useless-Doctrine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

39.0%

Resolved

Trades

189

lifetime

Volume

$13.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$163

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-17 01:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% 50% +$0

Politics

28% — —

Sports

17% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+152	$142	94¢	$142	+$0	06-13 18:25
Will Alberta join the US?	Yes		+587	$25	3¢	$20	$-5	06-03 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	9	$1.0K	531	531	+0	Yes	+$1	04-23 16:37
Will Alberta join the US?	13	$976	1,366	779	+587	open	—	06-06 00:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$687	828	828	+0	open	—	06-15 04:46
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	10	$653	975	975	+0	No	$-0	04-06 19:58
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$611	475	475	+0	No	+$0	04-24 17:58
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$593	933	933	+0	open	—	04-21 08:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	5	$562	287	287	+0	open	—	05-20 17:05
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	7	$482	173	318	-145	open	—	05-23 11:22
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$455	399	196	+203	open	—	06-01 22:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$338	379	146	+233	open	—	06-14 18:38
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$336	334	334	+0	open	—	04-06 22:36
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	7	$325	656	656	+0	open	—	04-24 11:23
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	2	$313	161	161	+0	open	—	06-13 11:07
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	6	$313	371	371	+0	open	—	06-05 11:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	10	$312	490	490	+0	open	—	05-18 16:32
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$310	158	158	+0	open	—	04-22 08:29
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$309	162	162	+0	open	—	04-22 01:46
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$301	155	155	+0	open	—	03-16 12:31
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$301	154	154	+0	No	$-0	04-03 21:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$301	478	478	+0	open	—	04-22 19:18
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$300	154	154	+0	open	—	03-17 11:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$299	299	299	+0	open	—	06-06 21:08
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$299	152	152	+0	open	—	04-09 01:19
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	3	$298	184	184	+0	open	—	06-10 07:01
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$286	145	145	+0	open	—	05-20 10:23
Netanyahu out by June 30?	4	$284	144	144	+0	open	—	06-13 17:22
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$283	145	145	+0	open	—	04-26 17:03
will min woo lee win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$282	143	143	+0	open	—	03-17 05:08
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$282	163	163	+0	open	—	04-21 02:42
will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$281	143	143	+0	open	—	03-16 07:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 03:44:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	177	77¢	$136	0xba72ff…
06-18 02:08:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	177	77¢	$136	0xcc8892…
06-17 01:01:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	4¢	$15	0x2ac9aa…
06-17 00:54:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	4¢	$3	0xdff5dd…
06-17 00:54:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	4¢	$4	0x33f518…
06-17 00:54:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	4¢	$6	0x7f840a…
06-15 21:39:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	150	90¢	$135	0xdd5992…
06-15 17:05:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0x4c5535…
06-15 04:46:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	399	37¢	$148	0xd4ddc5…
06-15 00:33:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	399	37¢	$148	0x27e696…
06-14 18:38:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	146	65¢	$95	0xe1a269…
06-14 16:40:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	69¢	$101	0xe16c56…
06-14 09:59:36	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	158	15¢	$23	0xe2e088…
06-14 07:52:42	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xc684f0…
06-14 07:52:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	150	17¢	$25	0x23a9f7…
06-13 18:25:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x6d1c1d…
06-13 18:25:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	88	94¢	$82	0x4b0ad4…
06-13 17:22:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0x86de62…
06-13 15:31:42	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	64	99¢	$63	0x02598b…
06-13 11:18:04	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0x6625f3…
06-13 11:18:04	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4e53cd…
06-13 11:07:37	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	161	97¢	$156	0x448c41…
06-13 09:00:48	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	161	97¢	$157	0xf47c02…
06-12 21:58:15	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	61¢	$142	0x482ce5…
06-12 10:23:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	222	53¢	$118	0x582eb0…
06-12 10:23:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	45	53¢	$24	0x230558…
06-12 07:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xfc68c4…
06-12 07:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	254	56¢	$142	0x94d8d3…
06-10 07:01:30	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	112	81¢	$91	0xa35d32…
06-10 07:01:30	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	72	81¢	$58	0x1d2593…
06-10 02:28:18	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	184	81¢	$149	0xcb4195…
06-08 23:59:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	142	12¢	$17	0x800180…
06-08 22:26:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xb971fa…
06-08 22:26:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	126	12¢	$15	0x534277…
06-07 09:18:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0xc982d4…
06-07 09:18:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	122	31¢	$38	0x65b5df…
06-07 06:47:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	162	31¢	$50	0xe2db04…
06-06 21:08:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	50¢	$17	0xcdae9f…
06-06 21:08:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x5d1e29…
06-06 21:08:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	245	50¢	$122	0x16cc70…
06-06 18:39:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	299	50¢	$150	0xb77220…
06-06 11:45:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0x779e36…
06-06 10:16:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x5d87a7…
06-06 00:34:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	128	95¢	$122	0xc0a093…
06-06 00:34:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	28	95¢	$27	0x59a8cd…
06-05 21:12:52	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$149	0x286479…
06-05 16:50:33	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	1¢	$2	0x74a33d…
06-05 14:25:39	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	2¢	$3	0x0f910f…
06-05 11:35:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	219	4¢	$8	0xd9f40d…
06-05 09:38:28	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	113	3¢	$4	0xbd3ad7…
06-05 09:38:28	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	106	3¢	$3	0x24a945…
06-04 17:47:36	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	172	96¢	$164	0x5dd6b5…
06-04 15:46:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	172	96¢	$164	0x636a19…
06-03 22:43:27	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	155	47¢	$73	0x7bab5a…
06-03 20:28:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	155	47¢	$73	0x278570…
06-03 16:50:18	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x50f9ee…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	113	31¢	$35	0x87f2c1…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	31¢	$19	0x44dacd…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	162	31¢	$50	0x3f3746…
06-03 16:50:01	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	31¢	$5	0x2b24a5…
06-03 14:38:31	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	452	31¢	$140	0x61e2dd…
06-03 09:02:47	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	113	4¢	$5	0x7cc84d…
06-03 06:45:52	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	113	4¢	$5	0xe8eb92…
06-02 12:43:44	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	587	4¢	$25	0x9b363c…
06-01 22:36:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	203	81¢	$164	0xb50c06…
06-01 15:49:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0x66127b…
06-01 15:49:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0x14a6e9…
06-01 12:41:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	152	98¢	$149	0x460804…
05-31 10:28:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	182	4¢	$8	0x44fa92…
05-31 07:13:07	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	182	4¢	$8	0xd364b4…
05-31 03:18:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	63	96¢	$60	0x19bcc7…
05-31 03:18:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	93	96¢	$89	0x13fcb8…
05-31 00:03:07	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$149	0xa220bf…
05-30 19:56:53	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	321	2¢	$6	0x11eba9…
05-30 17:56:00	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	148	2¢	$3	0xf9ff02…
05-30 17:55:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	108	2¢	$2	0x9c2a30…
05-30 17:55:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	65	2¢	$1	0x8dbb84…
05-30 13:56:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	301	4¢	$13	0x2354c5…
05-29 01:44:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	17	77¢	$13	0xb0ce7e…
05-28 16:53:08	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	179	77¢	$138	0xb096ee…
05-28 12:47:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	126	72¢	$90	0xae2c1f…
05-28 12:47:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x387192…
05-28 12:12:21	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x3e654c…
05-28 10:11:32	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x5e468d…
05-25 14:45:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	16	84¢	$13	0xc7adac…
05-25 12:28:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0xc95d76…
05-23 11:22:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	145	98¢	$141	0x019553…
05-20 17:05:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	139	98¢	$137	0xc2c0a6…
05-20 15:12:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	139	98¢	$137	0xbcef75…
05-20 10:23:33	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0x6d68b1…
05-20 08:30:43	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0x9b466d…
05-20 04:49:08	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	145	98¢	$143	0x9e0d7f…
05-19 13:36:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x4c99a7…
05-19 09:41:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xbe611a…
05-19 09:41:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x6cb05c…
05-18 16:32:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	114	94¢	$107	0xafbfe0…
05-18 14:59:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	37	95¢	$35	0x271993…
05-18 11:56:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xaa6779…
05-18 11:56:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	138	95¢	$131	0x690b0c…
05-18 03:33:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	146	99¢	$144	0xdb25a5…