Unpleasant-Miracle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

+$17

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved

Trades

9,962

lifetime

Volume

$112.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$135

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-05 16:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

42% 100% +$22

Politics

41% 0% $-7

Crypto

17% 12% $-33

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 764 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-200	$-152	68¢	$-135	+$17	05-28 11:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	337	$12.3K	30,142	30,826	-684	open	—	03-31 18:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	379	$11.3K	44,067	43,313	+754	open	—	03-03 21:49
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	370	$9.3K	37,595	34,243	+3,352	open	—	03-30 18:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	268	$5.6K	36,103	38,505	-2,402	open	—	04-07 21:30
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	233	$5.1K	90,758	91,573	-815	open	—	03-24 21:50
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	210	$4.7K	13,138	14,670	-1,532	open	—	04-23 17:57
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	132	$4.3K	5,378	5,378	+0	open	—	04-15 21:16
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	136	$3.7K	85,540	54,922	+30,618	open	—	03-23 22:34
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	170	$3.6K	17,125	19,650	-2,525	open	—	03-31 17:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	131	$2.9K	10,880	10,991	-111	open	—	04-21 19:59
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	206	$2.8K	128,601	148,703	-20,102	open	—	03-11 05:43
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	142	$2.6K	7,877	7,885	-7	open	—	04-16 19:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	79	$1.6K	9,150	6,708	+2,442	open	—	04-17 20:09
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	67	$1.5K	9,298	10,297	-999	open	—	03-27 18:14
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	154	$1.4K	22,503	21,837	+666	open	—	03-29 05:33
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	24	$1.4K	1,658	1,658	+0	open	—	03-05 14:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	68	$1.3K	8,059	7,827	+232	open	—	05-22 20:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	52	$1.1K	4,554	4,887	-333	open	—	04-21 17:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	62	$1.1K	5,225	6,491	-1,266	open	—	04-25 13:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	76	$1.0K	5,797	4,455	+1,342	open	—	04-25 20:34
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	78	$867	8,362	8,362	+0	open	—	03-30 13:59
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	53	$855	2,134	2,812	-678	open	—	04-09 00:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	103	$829	11,884	12,244	-360	open	—	04-16 20:01
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	10	$794	535	535	+0	open	—	01-14 08:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	23	$783	2,577	2,577	+0	open	—	04-07 15:28
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?	623	$767	122,552	119,970	+2,582	open	—	04-12 22:18
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	23	$755	1,819	1,819	+0	open	—	03-23 16:48
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	29	$750	1,381	1,381	+0	open	—	04-16 05:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	26	$619	1,776	1,724	+52	open	—	05-25 18:53
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 17c	14	$610	289	454	-165	open	—	04-17 07:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 16:17:03	btc updown 5m 1780676400	Down	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xc29749…
06-05 16:11:24	btc updown 5m 1780676100	Up	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x087bd1…
06-05 16:02:24	btc updown 5m 1780675500	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x0da466…
06-05 15:51:40	bitcoin above 60k on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	92	95¢	$88	0x47b947…
06-03 16:50:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,111	0¢	$3	0x77f020…
05-31 19:06:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,111	1¢	$9	0x00d896…
05-31 15:35:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	332	1¢	$4	0xb70e6d…
05-31 15:33:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x212415…
05-31 15:31:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x772528…
05-31 15:30:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xc00ad4…
05-31 15:30:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	706	1¢	$9	0x82c12f…
05-30 08:26:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x8778e7…
05-30 08:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	33	57¢	$19	0xf14e83…
05-30 08:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x9bd2ec…
05-30 08:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	33	49¢	$16	0xeddc1a…
05-30 08:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xffefe0…
05-30 08:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	60¢	$0	0xf6fb3c…
05-30 08:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0xb51e17…
05-30 08:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x8a9896…
05-30 08:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x61e412…
05-30 08:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x2e05ba…
05-30 08:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xa184bf…
05-30 07:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0x955ea5…
05-30 07:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x8037e5…
05-30 07:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x1876c0…
05-30 07:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0xc7fde1…
05-30 07:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	23¢	$3	0x13819c…
05-30 07:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	33	47¢	$16	0x50beda…
05-30 07:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x3f21b0…
05-30 07:17:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	61¢	$5	0xaed0b4…
05-30 07:17:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	0	61¢	$0	0x765ed8…
05-30 07:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x70eee5…
05-30 07:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	39	61¢	$24	0x423a2c…
05-30 07:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	22	77¢	$17	0x095103…
05-30 07:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x8850ba…
05-30 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	25	28¢	$7	0x647358…
05-30 07:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x19be8b…
05-30 07:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	33	32¢	$11	0x2386b2…
05-30 07:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	33	27¢	$9	0x7966e3…
05-30 06:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x94d52f…
05-30 06:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x8ac2d3…
05-30 06:53:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0xddb140…
05-30 06:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0xe3e509…
05-30 06:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x12bdce…
05-30 06:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x554691…
05-30 06:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xca0ac2…
05-30 06:49:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x61308e…
05-30 06:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x2b6007…
05-30 06:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe28270…
05-30 06:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xcfb651…
05-30 06:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x68bb3d…
05-30 06:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x0e40a2…
05-30 06:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	0	57¢	$0	0x61e5c4…
05-30 06:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0xb39562…
05-30 06:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xd389cb…
05-30 06:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x601ce7…
05-30 06:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x902e98…
05-30 06:43:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x63dce6…
05-30 06:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xbe1c6e…
05-30 06:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x80aeb1…
05-30 06:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0xb7ae19…
05-30 06:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x367c85…
05-30 06:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0xa62a78…
05-30 06:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x99e402…
05-30 06:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xd168fa…
05-30 06:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xb763fb…
05-30 06:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x9d4019…
05-30 06:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0xaf322d…
05-30 06:26:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xfc78fe…
05-29 17:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xea7d74…
05-29 17:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0xe77760…
05-29 11:49:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xf148dd…
05-29 11:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0x1d2f98…
05-29 11:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xfc5c0c…
05-29 11:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	27	97¢	$26	0x086ccc…
05-29 11:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x6babda…
05-29 11:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0xc5c3aa…
05-29 11:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xe9f9ad…
05-29 11:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x738de9…
05-29 11:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$0	0xc7e1c1…
05-29 11:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x572df7…
05-29 11:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x21cb35…
05-29 11:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x0ef2ca…
05-29 11:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x946196…
05-29 11:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x220b59…
05-29 11:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	14¢	$3	0x9120fe…
05-29 11:09:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x2d2192…
05-29 11:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x103ea0…
05-29 11:07:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	62¢	$14	0xb0dfbc…
05-29 11:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	21	44¢	$9	0x5b6bd4…
05-29 11:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	40¢	$4	0xd8d0cd…
05-29 11:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0xb88a99…
05-29 11:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xe85f7d…
05-29 10:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x944427…
05-29 10:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x404514…
05-29 10:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x255789…
05-29 10:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x7f0b3a…
05-29 10:32:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0xd9ca41…
05-29 10:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x45ec04…
05-29 10:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	11	49¢	$5	0xdc84ca…