Unpleasant-Miracle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved

Trades

10,460

lifetime

Volume

$118.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-01 17:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

43% 0% $-7

Other

41% 100% +$22

Crypto

16% 12% $-33

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 764 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		-127	$-10	0¢	$-0	+$10	06-25 09:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	337	$12.3K	30,142	30,826	-684	open	—	03-31 18:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	379	$11.3K	44,067	43,313	+754	open	—	03-03 21:49
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	370	$9.3K	37,595	34,243	+3,352	open	—	03-30 18:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	268	$5.6K	36,103	38,505	-2,402	open	—	04-07 21:30
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	233	$5.1K	90,758	91,573	-815	open	—	03-24 21:50
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	210	$4.7K	13,138	14,670	-1,532	open	—	04-23 17:57
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	132	$4.3K	5,378	5,378	+0	open	—	04-15 21:16
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	136	$3.7K	85,540	54,922	+30,618	open	—	03-23 22:34
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	170	$3.6K	17,125	19,650	-2,525	open	—	03-31 17:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	131	$2.9K	10,880	10,991	-111	open	—	04-21 19:59
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	206	$2.8K	128,601	148,703	-20,102	open	—	03-11 05:43
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	142	$2.6K	7,877	7,885	-7	open	—	04-16 19:49
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	133	$2.0K	11,349	8,880	+2,469	open	—	06-21 11:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	79	$1.6K	9,150	6,708	+2,442	open	—	04-17 20:09
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	67	$1.5K	9,298	10,297	-999	open	—	03-27 18:14
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	59	$1.4K	10,184	10,544	-360	open	—	06-16 13:05
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	154	$1.4K	22,503	21,837	+666	open	—	03-29 05:33
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	24	$1.4K	1,658	1,658	+0	open	—	03-05 14:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	68	$1.3K	8,059	7,827	+232	open	—	05-22 20:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	52	$1.1K	4,554	4,887	-333	open	—	04-21 17:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	62	$1.1K	5,225	6,491	-1,266	open	—	04-25 13:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	76	$1.0K	5,797	4,455	+1,342	open	—	04-25 20:34
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	78	$867	8,362	8,362	+0	open	—	03-30 13:59
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	53	$855	2,134	2,812	-678	open	—	04-09 00:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	103	$829	11,884	12,244	-360	open	—	04-16 20:01
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	10	$794	535	535	+0	open	—	01-14 08:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	23	$783	2,577	2,577	+0	open	—	04-07 15:28
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?	623	$767	122,552	119,970	+2,582	open	—	04-12 22:18
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	23	$755	1,819	1,819	+0	open	—	03-23 16:48
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	29	$750	1,381	1,381	+0	open	—	04-16 05:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 19:32:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	444	0¢	$1	0x702689…
07-01 19:31:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	555	1¢	$4	0x26f55e…
07-01 17:56:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0xd31c19…
07-01 17:41:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	39	19¢	$7	0xd4990d…
07-01 17:39:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x6cfe8d…
07-01 16:53:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0xe12492…
07-01 16:20:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	SELL	204	3¢	$6	0xe0aea6…
07-01 15:43:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	204	1¢	$1	0xe08cc2…
07-01 15:43:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x1b3915…
07-01 14:47:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	SELL	83	2¢	$2	0xa684ff…
07-01 14:40:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0x8a8487…
07-01 14:34:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	129	1¢	$1	0x34f43a…
07-01 09:36:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	SELL	444	1¢	$6	0x74d7e3…
07-01 09:29:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	444	1¢	$3	0xc541f8…
07-01 08:32:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xdbab17…
07-01 07:52:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	108	2¢	$2	0x3d8053…
07-01 07:41:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0x465f44…
07-01 07:40:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	199	4¢	$7	0x50e98f…
07-01 07:37:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	190	4¢	$7	0x1648f5…
07-01 07:30:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	295	1¢	$4	0x1630c4…
07-01 07:08:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	94	1¢	$1	0x642b21…
07-01 06:57:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	145	4¢	$5	0x2d5168…
07-01 06:54:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	114	3¢	$4	0x848e07…
07-01 06:52:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x217963…
07-01 06:50:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x4c10b6…
07-01 06:50:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x2044db…
07-01 06:50:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x54525e…
07-01 06:50:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x524b0e…
07-01 06:50:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xb0ae99…
07-01 06:50:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x01463e…
07-01 06:50:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xd43911…
07-01 06:49:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xf0ca33…
07-01 06:49:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xe2b787…
07-01 06:49:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x3657a3…
07-01 06:48:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0xee39bd…
07-01 06:48:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	57	3¢	$2	0x5205e9…
07-01 06:46:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0xc8248b…
06-28 20:30:59	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x82512f…
06-28 20:30:47	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	SELL	113	8¢	$9	0xf07bd8…
06-28 20:24:16	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	SELL	57	11¢	$6	0xa88e60…
06-28 20:23:31	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x72fcb6…
06-28 20:23:13	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x06ea58…
06-28 20:22:08	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	SELL	41	12¢	$5	0xb96be1…
06-28 20:18:13	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	BUY	264	14¢	$37	0x554ae2…
06-28 20:17:40	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x90154e…
06-28 20:17:10	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xfd8b1a…
06-28 20:17:05	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	BUY	37	14¢	$5	0x5122ee…
06-28 20:16:04	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x8e2e3c…
06-25 09:43:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	233	6¢	$14	0x4274e7…
06-25 09:40:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xaf3b45…
06-25 08:53:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	248	5¢	$12	0x90948a…
06-25 08:35:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	111	5¢	$6	0x42c4b7…
06-25 08:31:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	85	5¢	$4	0x29e38a…
06-25 08:17:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	222	5¢	$12	0x8bbad3…
06-25 08:09:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	59	5¢	$3	0xca3ebc…
06-25 08:00:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	52	5¢	$3	0xf0b769…
06-25 08:00:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	111	5¢	$6	0xb2e985…
06-25 07:51:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0xf9df0c…
06-25 07:46:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	36	5¢	$2	0x66bbe7…
06-25 07:46:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0xde9b5f…
06-25 07:45:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x2c0e90…
06-25 07:38:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0xf51486…
06-25 07:37:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0xcea123…
06-25 07:36:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x4c3ab7…
06-25 07:35:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0x9f1830…
06-24 12:01:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	111	24¢	$27	0x4af5a1…
06-23 14:07:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	111	23¢	$26	0xe3b57b…
06-23 14:06:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	333	22¢	$73	0xc99537…
06-23 13:32:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	333	27¢	$90	0xfe049d…
06-21 21:04:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	222	28¢	$62	0x97226f…
06-21 20:27:11	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0xc3f5dd…
06-21 16:55:16	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	111	16¢	$18	0x953164…
06-21 16:05:32	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	243	12¢	$29	0xc3e48b…
06-21 13:26:17	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	81	13¢	$11	0x82ccbf…
06-21 12:46:29	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	111	11¢	$12	0xe0e8d7…
06-21 12:44:26	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	222	10¢	$22	0x65b7c4…
06-21 12:35:43	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	111	11¢	$12	0x352d37…
06-21 12:35:17	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x5b0f10…
06-21 12:25:14	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	222	11¢	$24	0x0fdd84…
06-21 12:18:28	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xb503d7…
06-21 12:14:41	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfab1e9…
06-21 12:14:35	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	76	9¢	$7	0x53e900…
06-21 11:41:25	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0xe62baf…
06-21 11:25:47	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	SELL	222	10¢	$22	0xe93cc1…
06-21 11:23:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	1,111	0¢	$6	0x5d0dc7…
06-21 11:02:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	1,101	2¢	$19	0x693c44…
06-21 10:50:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	111	2¢	$3	0xf62a11…
06-21 10:49:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	725	2¢	$14	0x8f746d…
06-21 10:49:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	400	1¢	$5	0xb658d3…
06-21 10:49:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	582	2¢	$11	0x52fda5…
06-21 10:49:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	188	1¢	$2	0x7bdadb…
06-21 10:47:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xd57cf3…
06-21 10:46:37	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0xbaa030…
06-21 10:38:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	302	2¢	$5	0x01a9fe…
06-21 10:14:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	299	2¢	$5	0x4acab7…
06-21 10:14:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	34	2¢	$1	0x4272a7…
06-21 10:06:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	1,021	2¢	$15	0xcb7f8f…
06-21 09:54:49	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	111	23¢	$26	0x02fe69…
06-21 09:51:58	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	107	21¢	$22	0x6760a0…
06-21 09:48:23	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x68dc06…