Realized P&L
-$216
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
52.2%
Resolved
3,396
Trades
12,870
lifetime
Volume
$25.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$54
17 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-05 20:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 261 days
Categories
Other
37% 45% -$89
Politics
22% 47% +$135
Sports
22% 40% +$30
Crypto
16% 37% -$242
Pop-Culture
2% 61% -$37
Tech
1% 38% -$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +16 $6 67¢ $11 +$4 11-05 15:52
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes +91 $6 11¢ $10 +$4 11-04 20:54
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? Yes +131 $7 5¢ $7 -$1 11-05 20:22
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +16 $6 35¢ $5 $0 10-13 17:41
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$0 07-07 19:45
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No +5 $4 98¢ $5 +$1 08-11 07:19
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +5 $4 81¢ $4 +$0 11-05 15:29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting? Yes +11 $5 32¢ $4 -$2 10-28 16:44
Will Amy Hunt win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award? Yes +6 $0 22¢ $1 +$1 10-28 08:11
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond? Yes +44 $2 2¢ $1 -$1 09-14 02:16
Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026? Yes — +5 $1 18¢ $1 $0 11-01 21:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting? Yes +5 $1 16¢ $1 $0 10-29 12:12
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +1 $0 4¢ $0 $0 08-26 14:35
Richard Madden announced as next James Bond? Yes +21 $0 0¢ $0 $0 09-14 02:16
Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday? No — +0 $0 35¢ $0 +$0 07-29 04:38
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +4 $0 0¢ $0 $0 06-17 18:17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +0 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 11-05 15:54