Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$891
Trades
61
Unique wallets
33
Liquidity
$579
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 08-05 09:30
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $33 | $156 | $123 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $10 | $45 | $35 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $12 | $86 | $74 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 14 | $7 | $219 | $212 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $18 | $23 | $6 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $4 | $57 | $53 |
| Median | 2 | $1 | $62 | $60 |
| Below median | 4 | $3 | $140 | $137 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $17 | — | +$17 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| unranked | 13 | $7 | $223 | $216 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | +167 | $132 | $132 | 1 | 07-03 23:21 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +104 | $9 | $9 | 3 | 07-31 21:28 |
| Only-Reunion 0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | +81 | $77 | $77 | 1 | 08-02 02:41 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +78 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 07-02 17:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x66be…f30e | No | +72 | $63 | $63 | 2 | 07-30 11:27 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +48 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-17 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x4015…f4a9 | No | +35 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 08-01 22:29 |
| Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | No | +34 | $32 | $42 | 2 | 08-05 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xeef3…fb40 | No | +33 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 08-04 18:14 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +32 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 07-26 07:28 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-01 22:29 |
| Failing-Doorway 0xfe1d…219e | Yes | +23 | $1 | $2 | 2 | 08-04 20:59 |
| Scented-Barley 0xd89e…b222 | No | +15 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-31 11:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-24 00:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 08-05 09:30 |
| Closed-Statin 0x88b3…bad4 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-02 07:06 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-23 01:30 |
| Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | +2 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 06-23 01:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $3 | 2 | 06-21 02:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 09:30:39 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9b0843… |
| 08-05 09:30:39 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x9b0843… |
| 08-05 09:30:39 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9b0843… |
| 08-04 20:59:48 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x7731bf… |
| 08-04 20:59:48 | Failing-Doorway 0xfe1d…219e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7731bf… |
| 08-04 18:14:51 | (anonymous) 0xeef3…fb40 | No | BUY | 33 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x104ae8… |
| 08-04 18:14:51 | Failing-Doorway 0xfe1d…219e | Yes | BUY | 33 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x104ae8… |
| 08-02 02:41:08 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | SELL | 81 | 95¢ | $77 | 0x9563aa… |
| 08-02 02:41:08 | Only-Reunion 0xa5d3…a6c6 | No | BUY | 81 | 95¢ | $77 | 0x9563aa… |
| 08-01 22:29:03 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xa86618… |
| 08-01 22:29:03 | (anonymous) 0x4015…f4a9 | No | BUY | 35 | 94¢ | $33 | 0xa86618… |
| 08-01 22:29:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xa86618… |
| 07-31 21:28:21 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | No | BUY | 40 | 93¢ | $37 | 0x8ae1b6… |
| 07-31 21:28:21 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x8ae1b6… |
| 07-30 11:27:11 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 11¢ | $4 | 0x724c95… |
| 07-30 11:27:11 | (anonymous) 0x66be…f30e | No | BUY | 40 | 89¢ | $36 | 0x724c95… |
| 07-26 07:50:39 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 24 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x469e67… |
| 07-26 07:50:39 | Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x469e67… |
| 07-26 07:28:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 24 | 81¢ | $19 | 0x4d7c1b… |
| 07-26 07:28:36 | Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 19¢ | $5 | 0x4d7c1b… |
| 07-24 09:01:42 | Separate-Posterior 0x8b33…3134 | No | SELL | 25 | 82¢ | $20 | 0x1da9bc… |
| 07-24 09:01:42 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 9 | 86¢ | $8 | 0x1da9bc… |
| 07-24 09:01:42 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 20¢ | $3 | 0x1da9bc… |
| 07-24 00:41:27 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0xec2a64… |
| 07-24 00:41:27 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xec2a64… |
| 07-15 13:13:13 | (anonymous) 0x49b1…0f4d | No | SELL | 22 | 86¢ | $19 | 0x21aa9b… |
| 07-15 13:13:13 | (anonymous) 0x66be…f30e | No | BUY | 32 | 86¢ | $28 | 0x21aa9b… |
| 07-15 13:13:13 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x21aa9b… |
| 07-03 23:21:14 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 167 | 79¢ | $132 | 0x4087b4… |
| 07-03 23:21:14 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 167 | 79¢ | $132 | 0x4087b4… |
| 07-02 17:15:10 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 54 | 22¢ | $12 | 0xa0fe08… |
| 07-02 17:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 22¢ | $6 | 0xa0fe08… |
| 07-02 17:15:10 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | BUY | 79 | 78¢ | $62 | 0xa0fe08… |
| 07-02 07:06:23 | Closed-Statin 0x88b3…bad4 | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x1dd8d7… |
| 07-02 07:06:23 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x1dd8d7… |
| 06-29 15:09:38 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x888bc0… |
| 06-29 15:09:38 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x888bc0… |
| 06-29 12:34:08 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | SELL | 16 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x5b5be7… |
| 06-29 12:34:08 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x5b5be7… |
| 06-29 12:26:32 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 24¢ | $4 | 0x1a5b38… |
| 06-29 12:26:32 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 24¢ | $4 | 0x1a5b38… |
| 06-23 01:30:11 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x0c2953… |
| 06-23 01:30:11 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x0c2953… |
| 06-21 02:44:10 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x2e0430… |
| 06-21 02:44:10 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | BUY | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x2e0430… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | Pale-Boyhood 0x70bb…14c2 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 20¢ | $8 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-16 17:14:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 19¢ | $5 | 0x8716db… |
| 06-16 17:14:34 | Separate-Posterior 0x8b33…3134 | No | BUY | 25 | 81¢ | $20 | 0x8716db… |
| 06-08 08:41:48 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 8 | 51¢ | $4 | 0x2f56a5… |
| 06-08 08:41:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 8 | 51¢ | $4 | 0x2f56a5… |
| 06-05 15:15:12 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xd0eec3… |
| 06-05 15:15:12 | Watchful-Full 0x9f23…7d19 | No | SELL | 7 | 67¢ | $5 | 0xd0eec3… |
| 06-05 15:15:12 | New-Airforce 0x8b73…4e3a | Yes | SELL | 11 | 27¢ | $3 | 0xd0eec3… |
| 05-31 11:38:53 | Scented-Barley 0xd89e…b222 | No | BUY | 15 | 67¢ | $10 | 0xc445f6… |
| 05-31 11:38:53 | Watchful-Full 0x9f23…7d19 | No | SELL | 8 | 67¢ | $5 | 0xc445f6… |
| 05-31 11:38:53 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xc445f6… |
| 05-30 15:00:42 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 54¢ | $2 | 0x8ae062… |
| 05-30 15:00:42 | Feline-Walkway 0x81a7…7eed | No | SELL | 4 | 46¢ | $2 | 0x8ae062… |