Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$467
Trades
33
Unique wallets
20
Liquidity
$579
Latest YES mid
18¢
Latest NO mid
82¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-03 23:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $27 | $4 | +$22 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $7 | $140 | $133 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 10 | $7 | $92 | $85 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $9 | $4 | +$5 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $1 | $20 | $19 |
| Median | 1 | — | $62 | $62 |
| Below median | 4 | $3 | $140 | $137 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $17 | — | +$17 |
| unranked | 7 | $7 | $10 | $3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | +167 | $132 | $132 | 1 | 07-03 23:21 |
| Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | +79 | $62 | $62 | 1 | 07-02 17:15 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +78 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 07-02 17:15 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +48 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-17 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +25 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-02 17:15 |
| Separate-Posterior 0x8b33…3134 | No | +25 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-16 17:14 |
| Scented-Barley 0xd89e…b222 | No | +15 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-31 11:38 |
| Closed-Statin 0x88b3…bad4 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-02 07:06 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +8 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-08 08:41 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-23 01:30 |
| Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | +2 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 06-23 01:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $3 | 2 | 06-21 02:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 23:21:14 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 167 | 79¢ | $132 | 0x4087b4… |
| 07-03 23:21:14 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 167 | 79¢ | $132 | 0x4087b4… |
| 07-02 17:15:10 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 54 | 22¢ | $12 | 0xa0fe08… |
| 07-02 17:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 22¢ | $6 | 0xa0fe08… |
| 07-02 17:15:10 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | BUY | 79 | 78¢ | $62 | 0xa0fe08… |
| 07-02 07:06:23 | Closed-Statin 0x88b3…bad4 | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x1dd8d7… |
| 07-02 07:06:23 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x1dd8d7… |
| 06-29 15:09:38 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x888bc0… |
| 06-29 15:09:38 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x888bc0… |
| 06-29 12:34:08 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x5b5be7… |
| 06-29 12:34:08 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | SELL | 16 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x5b5be7… |
| 06-29 12:26:32 | Junior-Production 0x2bfb…5c9e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 24¢ | $4 | 0x1a5b38… |
| 06-29 12:26:32 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 24¢ | $4 | 0x1a5b38… |
| 06-23 01:30:11 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x0c2953… |
| 06-23 01:30:11 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x0c2953… |
| 06-21 02:44:10 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x2e0430… |
| 06-21 02:44:10 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | BUY | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x2e0430… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | Pale-Boyhood 0x70bb…14c2 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 20¢ | $8 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-17 18:54:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x75cee3… |
| 06-16 17:14:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 19¢ | $5 | 0x8716db… |
| 06-16 17:14:34 | Separate-Posterior 0x8b33…3134 | No | BUY | 25 | 81¢ | $20 | 0x8716db… |
| 06-08 08:41:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 8 | 51¢ | $4 | 0x2f56a5… |
| 06-08 08:41:48 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 8 | 51¢ | $4 | 0x2f56a5… |
| 06-05 15:15:12 | Watchful-Full 0x9f23…7d19 | No | SELL | 7 | 67¢ | $5 | 0xd0eec3… |
| 06-05 15:15:12 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xd0eec3… |
| 06-05 15:15:12 | New-Airforce 0x8b73…4e3a | Yes | SELL | 11 | 27¢ | $3 | 0xd0eec3… |
| 05-31 11:38:53 | Scented-Barley 0xd89e…b222 | No | BUY | 15 | 67¢ | $10 | 0xc445f6… |
| 05-31 11:38:53 | Watchful-Full 0x9f23…7d19 | No | SELL | 8 | 67¢ | $5 | 0xc445f6… |
| 05-31 11:38:53 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xc445f6… |
| 05-30 15:00:42 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 54¢ | $2 | 0x8ae062… |
| 05-30 15:00:42 | Feline-Walkway 0x81a7…7eed | No | SELL | 4 | 46¢ | $2 | 0x8ae062… |