Vigorous-Simple — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$58

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

38.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$841

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-20

last 06-24 16:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

60% — —

Other

25% 0% $-46

Crypto

12% 47% $-12

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No		-6	$-5	87¢	$-5	+$0	06-23 19:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$390	70,000	90,000	-20,000	open	—	04-30 00:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$60	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-24 18:11
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	4	$49	1,010	500	+510	open	—	04-22 04:34
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	2	$46	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	$-46	05-12 16:31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$30	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-25 03:36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$25	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-25 02:23
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$25	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	05-12 15:11
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$21	500	500	+0	open	—	06-09 17:01
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	1	$20	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	06-15 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12PM ET	3	$17	50	50	+0	Up	+$2	05-11 16:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	6	$12	201	200	+1	open	—	04-22 16:55
Will Trump dance today?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-28 02:52
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	04-28 03:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$10	0	20	-20	Down	$-0	05-05 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	2	$8	0	12	-12	Down	+$2	05-12 05:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1AM ET	4	$7	0	12	-12	Up	+$1	05-11 05:43
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	1	$7	100	0	+100	open	—	05-22 17:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$6	0	10	-10	Up	$-4	05-05 18:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	3	$6	0	12	-12	Down	+$0	05-12 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	Up	$-6	05-05 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	Down	$-6	05-06 00:17
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	1	$5	0	6	-6	open	—	06-23 19:19
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	1	$5	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-18 03:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-05 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	+$10	05-05 03:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-06 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Up	+$1	05-06 00:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5AM ET	1	$3	0	6	-6	Up	$-3	05-11 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	1	$3	0	6	-6	Down	$-3	05-12 13:14
fifwc che can 2026 06 24 btts	1	$3	6	0	+6	open	—	06-24 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 16:08:28	fifwc che can 2026 06 24 btts	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xdb683a…
06-23 19:19:44	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x948a33…
06-18 03:40:50	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x985a61…
06-15 18:07:27	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 btts	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x75e3ff…
06-15 14:48:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0xc37684…
06-15 14:44:55	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 btts	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x66afcf…
06-14 14:37:15	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 btts	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x151fc1…
06-13 20:43:34	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xa95c62…
06-12 11:34:03	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 btts	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x4480a9…
06-11 19:25:33	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 btts	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xfb3000…
06-11 15:40:16	fifwc usa par 2026 06 12 btts	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xc3721f…
06-10 18:43:00	fifwc kr cze 2026 06 11 btts	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xd00be7…
06-09 17:01:16	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	500	3¢	$14	0x3904c5…
06-06 17:17:22	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$7	0xb4b1ef…
05-22 17:12:15	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x46b11d…
05-12 16:31:09	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$11	0xefefeb…
05-12 15:11:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$25	0x2e4206…
05-12 13:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x1e8c4f…
05-12 07:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	1	46¢	$0	0xd3b24e…
05-12 07:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x360e71…
05-12 07:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0xf6747c…
05-12 05:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xc7f377…
05-12 05:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x66e792…
05-11 16:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0xd3a188…
05-11 16:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xf68ce3…
05-11 16:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	44	15¢	$7	0x7cdd74…
05-11 16:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcf5daf…
05-11 09:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0xef91c6…
05-11 05:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x3724bb…
05-11 05:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x3662f2…
05-11 05:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	4	62¢	$3	0x8aec36…
05-11 05:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1AM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x93f48c…
05-07 18:08:39	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x9edff8…
05-06 17:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xcec0e5…
05-06 00:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xd18031…
05-06 00:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x1f6286…
05-06 00:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0dc1fd…
05-05 23:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x94dac8…
05-05 18:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xe148b2…
05-05 18:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0xca60ce…
05-05 18:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x4c0843…
05-05 18:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xc76de8…
05-05 18:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0xd72596…
05-05 16:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xd7c89a…
05-05 03:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x3fe16a…
05-04 15:43:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x2bb11f…
05-04 15:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xbc5bb3…
04-30 05:39:46	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x48cf6c…
04-30 00:40:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	40,000	0¢	$120	0x1bddc0…
04-28 22:53:46	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	97	0¢	$0	0x90f1bb…
04-28 22:53:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0xea7c5d…
04-28 22:53:00	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	39,833	0¢	$119	0x862099…
04-28 22:50:28	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	667	0¢	$2	0xd964d3…
04-28 22:50:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5,737	0¢	$17	0xbe72b0…
04-28 22:49:22	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	3,333	0¢	$10	0xf610ff…
04-28 03:04:58	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x169ba0…
04-28 02:52:28	Will Trump dance today?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x60f34d…
04-26 15:58:04	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$20	0xe3de6f…
04-25 03:36:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x2dfadf…
04-25 02:23:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x1e394d…
04-24 18:11:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$25	0x8fb7d9…
04-24 13:11:08	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	50,000	0¢	$100	0xb7a6b3…
04-22 16:55:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0x6e6d5f…
04-22 16:28:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	1¢	$35	0xe60444…
04-22 16:18:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$20	0xf1e551…
04-22 16:17:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$15	0x873b52…
04-22 04:34:16	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$6	0xf3bb6e…
04-22 03:13:56	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$39	0xd8aa9b…
04-20 20:19:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	BUY	179	4¢	$6	0x27a00a…
04-20 20:16:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc56527…
04-20 19:28:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xfe00a4…
04-20 19:24:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x56b48f…
04-20 18:51:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x50e796…
04-20 18:41:12	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x22ceb2…
04-20 18:40:12	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x861979…