Gracious-Locust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.26K

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

36.6%

Resolved

219

Trades

2,938

lifetime

Volume

$22.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$119

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-10 23:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

58% 37% -$1,367

Politics

42% 24% -$896

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	Yes	-550	-$41	9¢	$-47	-$6	09-28 02:53
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+450	$35	7¢	$31	-$3	11-09 09:31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+600	$5	3¢	$15	+$10	11-07 23:32
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+350	$12	2¢	$8	-$4	11-08 03:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+100	$5	3¢	$3	-$2	11-09 03:30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+100	$3	3¢	$3	$0	11-05 01:27
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$7	2¢	$3	-$5	11-08 21:09
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+70	$4	3¢	$2	-$2	11-08 13:32
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	-150	-$7	1¢	$-1	+$6	08-28 18:52
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+82	$3	2¢	$1	-$1	11-10 23:53
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Yes	-100	-$4	1¢	$-1	+$3	07-15 16:47
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	+50	$14	1¢	$1	-$13	10-02 13:56
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+20	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	08-02 21:52
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	+69	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	11-08 13:40
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	-$2	3¢	$0	+$2	11-06 19:07
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	-30	-$2	1¢	$-0	+$1	06-14 05:43
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+100	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	11-04 14:14
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+100	$0	0¢	$0	$0	11-08 03:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	164	$2.4K	19,267	5,517	+13,750	No	-$1,128	03-30 12:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	114	$2.2K	23,964	9,964	+14,000	No	-$425	04-25 02:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	59	$2.0K	2,630	2,580	+50	Yes	+$962	02-28 19:43
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	106	$1.6K	6,911	6,311	+600	open	—	11-07 23:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	239	$1.6K	42,995	36,705	+6,290	No	-$238	05-29 04:55
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	75	$993	2,359	2,371	-12	Yes	-$66	02-27 19:42
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	71	$836	2,556	1,403	+1,153	No	+$108	03-01 06:07
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	59	$723	15,100	1,900	+13,200	No	-$201	02-01 04:49
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	31	$634	1,000	1,100	-100	Yes	+$45	02-28 06:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	70	$557	8,150	8,780	-630	Yes	-$659	02-28 13:35
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	38	$500	2,500	1,500	+1,000	No	-$53	02-07 00:22
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	21	$442	531	321	+210	Yes	+$12	02-05 19:21
us x venezuela military engagement by january 31 2026 977	8	$430	400	500	-100	Yes	+$180	01-03 06:17
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	33	$371	7,900	350	+7,550	No	-$125	02-01 06:21
us x venezuela military engagement by january 15 2026 392	14	$356	400	1,000	-600	Yes	-$318	01-03 06:18
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	17	$326	300	300	+0	No	+$171	03-25 04:00
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$293	530	0	+530	Spain	+$199	07-19 21:43
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	4	$276	363	363	+0	England	-$211	07-18 21:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	131	$273	11,300	5,300	+6,000	No	-$63	09-29 08:45
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	20	$270	800	800	+0	No	+$10	01-29 16:57
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	7	$261	100	300	-200	Yes	+$46	01-03 06:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	133	$227	12,700	7,100	+5,600	No	-$66	06-27 15:42
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	7	$225	170	170	+0	No	+$80	03-26 10:20
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	15	$209	430	430	+0	Yes	+$91	03-23 22:29
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	24	$180	950	100	+850	No	-$135	02-13 22:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	19	$179	1,200	200	+1,000	No	-$51	02-01 05:29
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	10	$157	1,000	100	+900	No	-$27	01-16 23:17
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	24	$135	6,700	200	+6,500	No	-$61	02-02 03:07
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	3	$124	200	200	+0	No	+$115	01-03 06:55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	8	$122	800	400	+400	No	-$26	01-30 19:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 23:53:43	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x675680…
11-10 07:31:49	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0xc5b8b6…
11-09 09:31:42	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0x304e3d…
11-09 03:30:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x0ae3ef…
11-08 21:09:16	Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x44c446…
11-08 13:40:19	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x203067…
11-08 13:32:58	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x0c9523…
11-08 09:28:01	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0xc44cc3…
11-08 08:33:22	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x9b5d8a…
11-08 08:21:28	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x3f29eb…
11-08 07:30:37	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc487aa…
11-08 07:30:36	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xf95482…
11-08 07:30:36	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5c80ed…
11-08 07:30:36	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x363d2c…
11-08 05:18:24	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xa19472…
11-08 03:18:19	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x228424…
11-08 03:05:09	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4dc95c…
11-08 03:02:25	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x8a10ad…
11-07 23:35:16	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x5479de…
11-07 23:32:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xf54d8a…
11-07 23:10:48	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0x05cbc9…
11-07 21:58:10	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x7ee548…
11-07 21:58:09	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xae7122…
11-07 19:12:03	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa926ff…
11-07 08:25:39	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xbd812e…
11-06 19:07:07	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x1c7491…
11-06 03:30:27	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x5b11f5…
11-05 22:20:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x4c1a71…
11-05 17:14:46	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8a70d8…
11-05 17:14:46	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x75beca…
11-05 17:14:46	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x1feabf…
11-05 17:08:25	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2fd1d9…
11-05 15:56:39	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x8db7d4…
11-05 14:50:54	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x04b7bf…
11-05 10:01:00	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x5661b8…
11-05 05:04:13	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0xee92e9…
11-05 02:42:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x9b9b5d…
11-05 01:27:55	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x284c8e…
11-04 21:35:30	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xf913be…
11-04 21:33:22	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x724ea3…
11-04 19:48:42	Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x1458fe…
11-04 14:14:03	Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xe530ae…
11-04 13:48:19	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x4c7537…
11-04 13:48:18	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xf7b3a8…
11-04 13:40:15	Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xee5611…
11-04 13:40:15	Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x45d565…
11-04 11:33:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x744297…
11-04 05:12:24	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd51c7f…
11-04 04:13:03	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xec57ce…
11-04 04:07:45	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x55d588…
11-04 04:07:15	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xa2b688…
11-04 04:07:00	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8b762c…
11-04 04:03:01	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xb66f99…
11-04 03:09:57	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x1a5249…
11-03 14:14:07	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xcf732b…
11-03 11:45:24	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x0604af…
11-03 09:04:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x2c5189…
11-03 08:58:36	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x0de5a2…
11-03 08:54:04	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xf5f9c5…
11-02 21:15:55	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x0a7ca6…
11-02 19:57:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x5a2a36…
11-02 09:57:16	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf2c1a9…
11-01 22:52:24	Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x70ee45…
11-01 18:35:48	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x04488e…
11-01 10:15:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x6f14d7…
11-01 04:19:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xab45ac…
11-01 04:16:16	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0xbbb661…
11-01 04:07:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x80c458…
11-01 04:07:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x06881d…
10-31 17:29:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,200	0¢	$2	0x3b35a7…
10-31 16:42:13	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x28ef34…
10-31 16:17:43	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xa36036…
10-31 14:48:21	NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x8dfb2d…
10-31 13:56:57	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x8850b2…
10-31 06:34:52	Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x9ccb56…
10-31 06:24:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x854244…
10-30 23:21:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x526ef6…
10-30 21:08:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x87d80f…
10-30 19:50:00	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x7475c3…
10-30 13:10:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x17628d…
10-30 04:57:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x0506f7…
10-30 03:46:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xcabb72…
10-29 17:17:28	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	9¢	$3	0xcf8d4e…
10-29 01:43:29	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x2af333…
10-28 23:33:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x4db041…
10-28 09:48:34	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x762b5c…
10-27 11:05:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x9f47c7…
10-27 02:59:54	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x88a556…
10-26 10:53:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xaef8d5…
10-25 17:06:18	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0x13397f…
10-25 06:37:00	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf88984…
10-24 20:28:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x9b7ef0…
10-24 16:15:00	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0x6b4a68…
10-24 13:02:45	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x82890d…
10-23 20:16:35	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc66d2f…
10-23 20:10:12	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x42b66f…
10-23 20:07:12	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0xe7e89d…
10-23 20:06:21	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xdd4475…
10-23 20:01:06	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x0766f2…
10-23 19:53:45	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xa5ff5b…