Realized P&L (90d)
-$938
Unrealized P&L
+$1.10K
Hit rate
47.4%
Resolved (90d)
613
Trades (90d)
10,170
32,239 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$73.9K
$281.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$5.33K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 10-28 16:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 161 days
Categories
Politics
52% 47% -$561
Other
38% 36% -$1,938
Tech
7% 35% -$207
Crypto
1% 23% -$123
Sports
1% 47% -$37
Pop-Culture
0% 25% -$68
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 413 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 No +635 $421 73¢ $464 +$43 10-28 00:23
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +481 $298 84¢ $404 +$106 10-27 21:32
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +356 $237 98¢ $349 +$112 10-26 00:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +347 $196 96¢ $331 +$135 10-25 22:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +234 $165 99¢ $232 +$67 10-25 14:07
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +325 $147 66¢ $215 +$68 10-26 17:20
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +207 $106 98¢ $204 +$98 10-23 19:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +388 $211 52¢ $204 -$7 10-28 08:07
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +212 $136 90¢ $191 +$56 10-28 05:53
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +196 $113 96¢ $188 +$75 09-25 20:20
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +234 $125 75¢ $175 +$50 10-27 06:23
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 Yes +635 $212 27¢ $172 -$41 10-21 19:48
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +200 $136 83¢ $166 +$30 10-26 12:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +340 $152 48¢ $161 +$9 10-28 08:07
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +157 $72 97¢ $153 +$81 10-25 19:16
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +188 $146 78¢ $145 $0 10-28 10:13
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +169 $90 80¢ $136 +$47 10-28 14:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +162 $128 84¢ $135 +$8 10-25 22:10
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +400 $140 34¢ $134 -$6 10-28 00:02
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +187 $122 66¢ $125 +$3 10-27 01:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +136 $59 87¢ $119 +$60 09-25 20:20
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Bibi +115 $46 100¢ $115 +$69 10-27 22:21
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +131 $102 86¢ $114 +$12 10-28 03:29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +179 $102 64¢ $113 +$11 10-28 11:35
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +325 $214 34¢ $110 -$103 10-20 15:05
next white house press secretary announced by december 31 2026 Yes +147 $132 68¢ $101 -$31 10-26 16:05
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +106 $43 93¢ $99 +$55 09-26 02:23
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +111 $59 88¢ $97 +$38 09-25 20:20
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +403 $88 22¢ $91 +$3 10-28 12:13
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +100 $42 90¢ $90 +$48 10-27 07:01