Realized P&L (90d)
-$951
Unrealized P&L
+$1.07K
Hit rate
47.4%
Resolved (90d)
616
Trades (90d)
10,117
32,115 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$73.3K
$280.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$5.28K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 10-28 03:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 160 days
Categories
Politics
52% 47% -$561
Other
38% 36% -$1,939
Tech
7% 35% -$207
Crypto
1% 23% -$123
Sports
1% 47% -$37
Pop-Culture
0% 25% -$68
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 413 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 No +635 $421 76¢ $483 +$62 10-28 00:23
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +481 $298 84¢ $402 +$104 10-27 21:32
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +356 $237 97¢ $346 +$109 10-26 00:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +347 $196 94¢ $328 +$132 10-25 22:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +234 $165 98¢ $229 +$65 10-25 14:07
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +452 $243 49¢ $222 -$21 10-28 02:43
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +325 $147 66¢ $213 +$66 10-26 17:20
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +207 $106 98¢ $203 +$97 10-23 19:33
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +226 $149 90¢ $202 +$53 10-03 03:23
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +196 $113 96¢ $187 +$74 09-25 20:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +334 $149 51¢ $170 +$21 10-28 02:44
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +200 $136 84¢ $167 +$31 10-26 12:23
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +234 $125 70¢ $164 +$39 10-27 06:23
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +157 $72 98¢ $154 +$82 10-25 19:16
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 Yes +635 $212 24¢ $152 -$60 10-21 19:48
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +400 $140 34¢ $138 -$2 10-28 00:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +162 $128 84¢ $136 +$8 10-25 22:10
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +280 $156 44¢ $123 -$32 10-27 04:20
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +187 $122 66¢ $123 +$1 10-27 01:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +136 $59 88¢ $119 +$60 09-25 20:20
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +150 $74 78¢ $118 +$44 10-28 02:31
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +131 $102 86¢ $114 +$12 10-28 03:29
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Bibi +115 $46 98¢ $114 +$68 10-27 22:21
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +325 $214 34¢ $112 -$102 10-20 15:05
next white house press secretary announced by december 31 2026 Yes +147 $132 68¢ $101 -$31 10-26 16:05
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +106 $43 94¢ $99 +$56 09-26 02:23
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +111 $59 88¢ $97 +$38 09-25 20:20
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +102 $48 90¢ $91 +$43 10-26 04:23
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +100 $42 90¢ $90 +$48 10-27 07:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +102 $79 82¢ $83 +$4 09-25 20:20