Realized P&L (30d)
-$230
Unrealized P&L
+$916
Hit rate
44.9%
Resolved (30d)
147
Trades (30d)
3,119
34,075 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$34.7K
$302.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$5.17K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 10-27 05:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 160 days
Categories
Politics
52% 47% -$582
Other
38% 36% -$1,955
Tech
7% 35% -$207
Crypto
1% 23% -$123
Sports
1% 47% -$37
Pop-Culture
0% 25% -$68
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 413 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +636 $421 70¢ $448 +$27 10-25 21:55
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +517 $328 86¢ $442 +$114 10-23 20:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +356 $237 96¢ $344 +$107 10-26 00:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +347 $196 92¢ $319 +$123 10-25 22:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +234 $165 96¢ $224 +$60 10-25 14:07
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +325 $147 67¢ $218 +$71 10-26 17:20
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +226 $149 92¢ $206 +$58 10-03 03:23
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +207 $106 98¢ $203 +$97 10-23 19:33
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +196 $113 96¢ $189 +$76 09-25 20:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +635 $212 30¢ $187 -$25 10-21 19:48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +331 $182 52¢ $170 -$11 10-27 01:20
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +200 $136 84¢ $167 +$31 10-26 12:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +321 $143 48¢ $156 +$13 10-26 19:42
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +157 $72 99¢ $155 +$84 10-25 19:16
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +280 $156 52¢ $146 -$10 10-27 04:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +162 $128 84¢ $135 +$8 10-25 22:10
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +234 $89 55¢ $129 +$40 10-27 04:04
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +147 $115 86¢ $126 +$11 10-25 13:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +187 $122 66¢ $123 +$1 10-27 01:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +136 $59 87¢ $118 +$59 09-25 20:20
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? No +291 $115 40¢ $115 $0 10-26 16:12
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +238 $127 45¢ $107 -$19 10-27 05:43
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +325 $214 33¢ $107 -$106 10-20 15:05
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +106 $43 92¢ $98 +$55 09-26 02:23
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +111 $59 88¢ $97 +$38 09-25 20:20
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +114 $54 85¢ $97 +$42 10-26 01:51
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +147 $132 60¢ $89 -$42 10-26 16:05
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +150 $81 58¢ $87 +$6 10-26 22:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +102 $79 82¢ $83 +$4 09-25 20:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +128 $69 62¢ $79 +$9 10-25 21:55