Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.59K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

9.6%

Resolved

8,992

Trades

20,820

lifetime

Volume

$94.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 08-19 10:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Politics

48% 6% -$484

Other

32% 13% -$494

Crypto

17% 6% -$605

Tech

2% 50% -$10

Sports

1% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No		+1	$24	65¢	$1	-$23	08-14 22:26
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		+0	$3	16¢	$0	-$3	07-16 03:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	46	$7.9K	7,800	7,800	+0	No	-$17	07-22 04:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$5.5K	3,450	3,450	+0	open	—	07-28 22:17
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	24	$4.7K	4,210	4,210	+0	open	—	07-16 11:03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	38	$3.7K	3,621	3,621	+0	No	-$15	07-16 03:20
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	15	$2.9K	3,126	3,126	+0	open	—	07-20 21:27
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	15	$2.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	-$25	07-01 14:00
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	4	$2.7K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	07-24 12:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$2.4K	1,762	1,762	+0	Yes	-$7	07-16 03:20
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	10	$2.3K	3,800	3,800	+0	open	—	08-05 07:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	14	$2.3K	2,278	2,278	+0	No	-$65	07-16 03:20
Fed rate hike in 2026?	10	$2.1K	1,890	1,890	+0	Yes	-$17	08-13 21:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	9	$1.8K	2,208	2,208	+0	open	—	07-25 15:24
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	5	$1.7K	1,054	1,054	+0	No	-$13	07-13 16:03
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	7	$1.7K	1,800	1,800	+0	Yes	-$94	07-21 18:17
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	6	$1.4K	1,581	1,581	+0	No	-$19	07-23 15:53
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	7	$1.4K	1,693	1,693	+0	open	—	07-08 09:59
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	12	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$7	06-22 12:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$1.4K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	07-14 11:27
israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	2	$1.3K	800	800	+0	Yes	-$8	08-16 02:30
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$1.2K	800	800	+0	open	—	08-08 06:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	4	$1.1K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	-$10	07-14 03:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	Yes	-$2	07-21 15:42
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	2	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-25 11:32
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	8	$1.0K	852	852	+0	open	—	07-13 16:05
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	2	$1.0K	600	600	+0	No	-$6	07-17 05:29
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$1.0K	849	849	+0	open	—	07-19 01:05
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$980	700	700	+0	open	—	07-07 11:52
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	33	$945	1,425	1,425	+0	Yes	-$59	06-22 16:03
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	4	$943	800	799	+1	Yes	-$1	08-19 10:55
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	12	$941	955	755	+200	Yes	-$30	06-22 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 10:55:07	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	759	59¢	$448	0x71bb37…
08-19 10:54:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	760	59¢	$448	0x6514b3…
08-19 10:54:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0x31287f…
08-19 10:54:49	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0xb5bd62…
08-16 02:30:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	SELL	800	79¢	$632	0x6a2b66…
08-16 02:30:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	800	80¢	$640	0x72d691…
08-14 22:26:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	535	21¢	$111	0x85e858…
08-14 22:26:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	536	21¢	$113	0x59674f…
08-13 21:33:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	290	52¢	$151	0x03211c…
08-13 21:33:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	52¢	$151	0xc96061…
08-13 16:19:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	SELL	800	22¢	$178	0xcb1d7f…
08-13 16:18:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	800	27¢	$216	0x8af898…
08-13 11:32:24	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	800	31¢	$248	0x0cdd81…
08-13 11:32:21	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	800	35¢	$280	0x898a63…
08-12 09:47:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	800	17¢	$136	0xcf9fb6…
08-12 09:47:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	800	20¢	$158	0xfc3ce9…
08-08 06:32:49	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	800	77¢	$616	0x52abb1…
08-08 06:32:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	800	77¢	$616	0xe1ef68…
08-05 07:42:47	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	18¢	$144	0x111fcd…
08-05 07:42:32	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	18¢	$144	0x3defd9…
08-05 07:42:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	19¢	$152	0x54ec26…
08-05 07:41:45	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	20¢	$160	0xc595e9…
08-02 07:51:36	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	Yes	SELL	1,000	27¢	$270	0xd79230…
08-02 07:51:29	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	Yes	BUY	1,000	61¢	$610	0x606f36…
08-01 00:17:38	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	38¢	$376	0x9301af…
08-01 00:17:35	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	39¢	$388	0x59e156…
07-28 22:17:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	75¢	$750	0xb9c6d6…
07-28 22:17:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	76¢	$760	0x8bb902…
07-27 16:20:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0xfa299f…
07-26 02:54:33	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	SELL	1,000	18¢	$177	0xf0df0f…
07-26 02:54:31	Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x4e016f…
07-25 15:24:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,000	41¢	$413	0x247b69…
07-25 15:24:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1,000	49¢	$488	0xee2fce…
07-25 11:32:43	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1,000	51¢	$510	0x0d2872…
07-25 11:32:42	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1,000	53¢	$530	0x435574…
07-24 15:08:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	33¢	$330	0xfa1d02…
07-24 15:08:06	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x3c4568…
07-24 12:01:42	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,000	85¢	$850	0x76fda9…
07-24 12:01:40	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$854	0xc5d087…
07-24 08:40:58	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	159	72¢	$114	0x7a1cb7…
07-24 08:40:57	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	159	72¢	$114	0x497b59…
07-23 15:53:51	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	131	44¢	$57	0x037204…
07-23 15:53:36	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	450	43¢	$194	0xd68ce9…
07-23 15:53:33	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	450	42¢	$189	0xda07a3…
07-23 15:53:33	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	131	42¢	$55	0x3c47bb…
07-23 15:50:15	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	1,000	46¢	$464	0xda2f0f…
07-23 15:50:13	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	1,000	49¢	$490	0xd34730…
07-23 06:47:45	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	1,000	36¢	$365	0x9b3065…
07-23 06:47:42	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	1,000	39¢	$390	0x62ec16…
07-22 08:50:13	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	40¢	$240	0x06264c…
07-22 08:49:58	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	41¢	$246	0x6f2791…
07-22 08:49:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	43¢	$258	0xb5bccc…
07-22 08:49:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	44¢	$264	0x39b43c…
07-22 08:42:16	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	No	SELL	600	28¢	$171	0xcabf67…
07-22 08:42:15	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	No	BUY	600	32¢	$192	0x93f055…
07-22 04:44:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	600	26¢	$154	0x2d913e…
07-22 04:44:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	210	26¢	$54	0xe28eb7…
07-22 04:44:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	390	26¢	$100	0xa897c1…
07-22 04:44:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,200	26¢	$307	0x8c083f…
07-22 04:44:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	600	26¢	$155	0x50ee54…
07-21 19:25:24	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	600	18¢	$109	0x8f342b…
07-21 19:25:07	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	600	27¢	$161	0x5b8e85…
07-21 19:25:06	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	600	43¢	$258	0x029f19…
07-21 18:17:45	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1,200	42¢	$502	0x0d422d…
07-21 18:17:30	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	70	49¢	$34	0x7df74f…
07-21 18:17:30	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	312	49¢	$153	0x6a42f0…
07-21 18:17:27	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	600	46¢	$278	0x8f02dc…
07-21 18:17:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	600	48¢	$288	0xf88c57…
07-21 18:17:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	218	48¢	$105	0x0d660e…
07-21 17:43:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969	Yes	SELL	137	53¢	$73	0x9b1acd…
07-21 17:43:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969	Yes	BUY	138	54¢	$74	0xc58637…
07-21 17:27:52	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x8385cd…
07-21 17:27:51	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0x2a1677…
07-21 17:05:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	SELL	549	78¢	$430	0xdcba3a…
07-21 17:05:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	549	79¢	$434	0x5ff53d…
07-21 15:42:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	600	87¢	$524	0xb8e30f…
07-21 15:42:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	88¢	$526	0x9d0da7…
07-20 21:27:04	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	600	34¢	$203	0x600a14…
07-20 21:27:01	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	600	35¢	$209	0x7e9174…
07-19 01:05:58	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	600	72¢	$432	0x52ec56…
07-19 01:05:57	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	600	72¢	$434	0x0d6fdc…
07-17 05:29:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	600	83¢	$498	0x0f8903…
07-17 05:29:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0x96751c…
07-16 20:42:40	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	600	86¢	$517	0x4df5dd…
07-16 20:42:38	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	600	88¢	$527	0x54e5f3…
07-16 18:49:53	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	600	16¢	$96	0xc0a9f6…
07-16 18:49:50	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	600	16¢	$97	0xfc8680…
07-16 11:03:49	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	600	79¢	$476	0x2066d7…
07-16 11:03:46	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	600	80¢	$478	0x191c0e…
07-16 03:20:29	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xdc3c88…
07-16 03:20:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$0	0x1452f8…
07-16 03:20:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x6f4741…
07-16 03:20:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x4d028e…
07-16 03:20:23	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0xdeb2ca…
07-16 03:20:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x532dd8…
07-16 01:15:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	600	75¢	$448	0x2845f5…
07-16 01:15:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	600	75¢	$448	0x569473…
07-15 23:58:49	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	600	35¢	$210	0x1a47b4…
07-15 23:58:47	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	600	37¢	$222	0xdc4ffd…
07-15 19:33:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	600	80¢	$480	0x01c48f…