Tragic-Commitment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.3%

Resolved

Trades

312

lifetime

Volume

$311

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-24 02:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

50% 0% $-0

Politics

31% 25% +$0

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

4% — —

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	18	$18	9	9	-0	open	—	03-01 02:01
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$8	4	4	+0	Yes	$-0	04-08 06:28
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?	8	$8	4	4	+0	open	—	03-26 08:24
trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	07-15 07:53
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-19 07:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-27 07:50
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-13 08:01
Human moon landing in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-08 08:20
Netanyahu out by May 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-26 08:22
will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-21 09:07
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-24 00:32
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-06 06:28
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-18 07:03
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$3	1	2	-1	open	—	06-22 03:28
us evacuates guadalajara consulate by feb 28	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-23 03:24
highest temperature in tokyo on march 21 2026 15c	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-21 07:41
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-19 07:47
bitcoin above 60k on april 1	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-01 06:44
netanyahu out by july 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-01 09:04
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-01 08:43
donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 20 39	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-13 03:03
will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-16 08:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-14 02:54
chatgpt full outage by february 28	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-13 01:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-19 07:47
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-21 03:54
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-12 08:33
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-09 08:26
highest temperature in munich on april 3 2026 5corbelow	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-31 08:53
iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-20 07:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 02:40:10	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1t cny 20260722211138920	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xaa439b…
07-24 02:26:10	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 1t cny 20260722211138920	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x32cc2e…
07-23 08:22:04	will hyperliquid reach 88 in july	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xda4465…
07-23 08:05:39	will hyperliquid reach 88 in july	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf1a3c5…
07-22 08:32:22	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xbbfd5a…
07-22 08:13:54	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x561e77…
07-21 03:44:01	trump media x tae technologies merger closed by july 31 20260629151200479	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x27111c…
07-20 07:53:55	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x31b911…
07-20 07:42:19	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x475f0b…
07-18 08:31:37	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4ebb34…
07-18 08:10:39	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xee7db3…
07-17 02:50:22	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xee5c4d…
07-17 02:49:42	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xead1a7…
07-17 02:30:30	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8daa9e…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdc990f…
07-16 08:16:05	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0b7b74…
07-16 07:56:44	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x861796…
07-15 07:53:53	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf38de7…
07-15 07:41:23	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0ce15e…
07-14 03:31:26	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x943e4e…
07-14 03:18:47	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba7a4b…
07-13 08:01:11	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3d1607…
07-13 07:58:58	Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa6f78e…
07-13 07:37:10	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7d3b26…
07-13 07:27:49	Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe43dc6…
07-11 03:23:37	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd8a3ac…
07-11 03:01:40	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xca6bb2…
07-10 08:16:53	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260627173804885 499 947 776 521	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb73039…
07-10 08:16:46	Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9213cc…
07-10 07:52:52	Will Goldman Sachs fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3c74e1…
07-10 07:50:35	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260627173804885 499 947 776 521	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbf9bb5…
07-08 08:21:26	Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xac279e…
07-08 08:20:07	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x165efd…
07-08 07:58:13	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8c6dd0…
07-08 07:54:46	Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0f71e1…
07-07 01:31:05	Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdf1f6c…
07-07 01:30:26	xrp above 0pt6 on july 10 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc8db04…
07-07 01:15:41	Will Bank of America fail by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7afe55…
07-07 00:48:55	xrp above 0pt6 on july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9e5b99…
07-06 07:51:04	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x509a31…
07-06 07:49:05	bitcoin above 52k on july 11 2026	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x71e327…
07-06 07:35:08	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcf3388…
07-06 07:30:52	bitcoin above 52k on july 11 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f4891…
07-04 07:49:08	will tread launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x229a91…
07-04 07:33:08	will tread launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1c4a9e…
07-03 07:29:52	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x09b439…
07-03 07:15:47	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe7fc28…
07-02 07:51:47	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc14d3f…
07-02 07:51:20	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6feede…
07-02 07:42:56	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2a6c4f…
07-02 07:37:04	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf7a5ba…
07-01 09:04:56	netanyahu out by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfb77fd…
07-01 08:51:43	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3b0656…
06-30 02:49:55	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x79b7fb…
06-30 02:38:29	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca02c5…
06-29 08:49:52	will trump speak to mark rutte in july 20260626154217435	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5c3ee2…
06-29 08:49:17	will 1 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228786	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x512cf7…
06-29 08:34:05	will trump speak to mark rutte in july 20260626154217435	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x433005…
06-29 08:22:28	will 1 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228786	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xda4473…
06-27 07:50:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x183234…
06-27 07:10:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf04364…
06-26 03:21:35	Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1c483e…
06-26 03:20:37	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x441c5f…
06-26 02:54:32	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x47eb64…
06-26 02:49:14	Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x579b6e…
06-24 08:37:23	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xddc522…
06-24 08:37:04	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9a9392…
06-24 08:20:31	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9adfa7…
06-24 08:16:52	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd69e5b…
06-23 08:36:19	Will Donald Trump visit Pennsylvania in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfed019…
06-23 08:35:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 26	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x382875…
06-23 08:08:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 26	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x023cb9…
06-23 08:04:49	Will Donald Trump visit Pennsylvania in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7d925f…
06-22 03:29:44	bitcoin above 54k on june 27 2026	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x56a3ce…
06-22 03:28:17	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6b9df2…
06-22 03:13:22	Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x28a46e…
06-22 03:03:49	bitcoin above 54k on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9ccd40…
06-21 09:08:35	labour leadership election scheduled by december 31 2026 511	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x750d11…
06-21 09:07:29	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x94dc5f…
06-21 08:45:59	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb80dc7…
06-21 08:42:55	labour leadership election scheduled by december 31 2026 511	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf93de1…
06-18 07:48:34	will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe309f1…
06-18 07:32:02	will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x29ad66…
06-17 02:26:43	xrp above 0pt6 on june 19 2026	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa5a319…
06-17 02:26:13	will tori launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1552fb…
06-17 02:11:37	will tori launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x73de32…
06-17 02:05:45	xrp above 0pt6 on june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa27b62…
06-12 08:33:52	will noble launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4c58e3…
06-12 08:33:10	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdda887…
06-12 08:19:39	will noble launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9202a2…
06-12 08:15:10	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xaf601f…
06-11 07:54:12	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x43d913…
06-11 07:34:42	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xeb59ad…
06-10 08:41:15	will hurupay launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbdb68b…
06-10 08:20:04	will hurupay launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x629e0d…
06-09 08:22:45	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x292cae…
06-09 08:06:52	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfd5284…
06-08 07:51:45	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5b9407…
06-08 07:38:39	will reya launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x429cc9…
06-06 07:49:46	Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x172f37…