Youthful-Tug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.10K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

8,080

lifetime

Volume

$3.69M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$456

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 15:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

55% 67% +$1,028

Other

40% 100% +$69

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	85	$232.5K	177,408	114,181	+63,227	open	—	06-17 18:37
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	106	$224.0K	145,842	123,759	+22,083	open	—	04-30 22:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	37	$110.6K	73,003	58,177	+14,826	open	—	06-03 22:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	67	$87.3K	44,200	46,110	-1,910	open	—	04-28 18:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	142	$83.1K	51,662	36,204	+15,458	open	—	03-31 21:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	54	$82.1K	36,659	46,022	-9,363	open	—	06-26 03:24
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	121	$81.7K	52,287	33,116	+19,171	open	—	02-25 06:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	45	$79.3K	44,312	35,874	+8,438	open	—	04-20 02:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	72	$68.0K	49,208	42,045	+7,163	open	—	03-11 07:41
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	102	$67.4K	44,468	24,600	+19,868	open	—	03-04 18:25
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	76	$60.5K	42,500	25,000	+17,500	open	—	05-15 21:15
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	50	$59.2K	46,917	12,944	+33,973	open	—	04-16 17:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	25	$55.7K	26,700	30,033	-3,333	open	—	05-18 21:24
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	85	$52.5K	30,789	30,909	-120	open	—	04-22 15:48
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	79	$47.2K	37,455	15,672	+21,783	open	—	02-03 01:53
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	38	$46.5K	23,256	24,360	-1,104	open	—	05-21 03:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	107	$45.3K	35,287	30,388	+4,899	open	—	04-01 16:24
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	45	$45.1K	46,179	7,983	+38,196	open	—	02-28 07:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	32	$43.7K	80,988	51,520	+29,468	open	—	05-26 13:53
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	167	$43.6K	46,835	0	+46,835	open	—	07-01 13:55
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	38	$42.6K	27,455	26,655	+800	open	—	04-09 18:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	53	$42.1K	23,418	23,274	+144	open	—	05-25 02:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	21	$41.1K	24,533	24,533	+0	open	—	03-01 21:26
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	93	$40.3K	21,410	21,782	-372	open	—	01-30 21:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	37	$36.8K	38,892	22,983	+15,909	open	—	06-16 19:38
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	101	$36.2K	50,289	18,207	+32,082	open	—	04-30 22:24
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	35	$35.6K	21,091	20,425	+666	open	—	08-12 15:27
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	32	$31.6K	17,005	17,848	-843	open	—	01-31 01:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	35	$30.7K	16,321	16,321	+0	No	+$1,032	05-08 23:42
Iran leadership change by May 31?	32	$30.4K	20,458	11,887	+8,571	open	—	05-26 21:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 15:27:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	8,459	99¢	$8,400	0x50b7da…
08-12 07:07:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	8,459	98¢	$8,332	0xe51e2d…
08-11 17:13:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,111	95¢	$1,055	0xb8238f…
08-11 12:46:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,135	94¢	$1,067	0x0f6c73…
08-11 11:07:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,111	95¢	$1,055	0x5e7360…
08-10 03:54:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,500	91¢	$1,365	0x9a6867…
08-08 19:21:33	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0xe3e909…
08-08 19:20:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x9b8c8d…
08-08 19:20:25	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	75	69¢	$51	0x71dc8e…
08-08 19:20:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x2d9534…
08-08 19:20:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0xa65709…
08-08 19:20:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	600	70¢	$420	0x95bc26…
08-08 19:20:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x03735b…
08-08 19:20:15	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xe448d6…
08-08 17:11:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,437	84¢	$1,207	0x3ed08d…
08-08 17:10:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	688	84¢	$578	0xbf8a51…
08-08 17:09:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	58	84¢	$48	0x6e68ed…
08-08 17:08:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0xd06750…
08-08 06:32:46	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	BUY	176	89¢	$157	0x55c93d…
08-07 23:01:45	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$958	0xce94bc…
08-07 19:31:15	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x100b17…
08-07 14:40:09	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	159	94¢	$148	0xe0349b…
08-07 09:36:55	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	11	96¢	$10	0xe75ec8…
08-07 09:36:46	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0xf8c660…
08-07 09:36:36	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	7,989	96¢	$7,670	0xd5b6f8…
08-07 01:51:31	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	5,000	97¢	$4,870	0xfe9286…
08-06 22:42:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3,000	77¢	$2,310	0x99a57a…
08-06 22:00:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,579	79¢	$2,037	0xbb7635…
08-06 21:59:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	421	79¢	$333	0x22627b…
08-06 21:50:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,959	80¢	$2,368	0x8a03c3…
08-06 21:50:02	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	4,438	98¢	$4,335	0x1b77f8…
08-06 05:43:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	378	85¢	$321	0xe0a0fc…
08-06 05:42:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	559	85¢	$475	0x38c525…
08-05 21:50:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,239	86¢	$1,925	0xd7e3b6…
08-04 13:25:47	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	312	70¢	$218	0x9d4bc2…
08-04 12:54:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	333	35¢	$117	0x11a1c7…
08-04 10:50:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	333	60¢	$200	0xb61447…
08-04 04:22:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	40	48¢	$19	0xf39a7e…
08-04 02:21:41	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	SELL	350	100¢	$348	0x8901cb…
08-03 03:31:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0xaed7be…
08-02 21:57:35	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	323	48¢	$155	0x96e48b…
08-02 21:57:23	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	26	48¢	$13	0x056b7c…
08-02 21:29:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2,000	50¢	$1,000	0x8ec094…
08-02 21:20:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	3,500	88¢	$3,080	0x50482a…
08-02 20:37:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	466	53¢	$247	0x0070a2…
08-02 20:31:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	250	52¢	$130	0x38a4ad…
08-02 20:30:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	410	54¢	$221	0xacdd1f…
08-02 20:11:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	450	99¢	$444	0x8feb4b…
08-02 13:45:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	79¢	$790	0x66c5bd…
08-02 07:41:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	421	99¢	$417	0x8adf40…
08-02 04:30:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	1,241	79¢	$981	0xc9385a…
08-02 03:24:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	279	54¢	$151	0xa17d71…
08-02 03:21:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	55	54¢	$30	0x407f88…
08-02 03:21:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x89ff39…
08-02 03:20:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	158	54¢	$86	0xcffdfe…
08-02 03:19:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	87	54¢	$47	0xb16104…
08-02 02:44:26	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	1,200	91¢	$1,092	0xdfb817…
08-02 01:52:42	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xfbffdb…
08-02 01:51:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x004193…
08-02 01:50:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	421	93¢	$392	0x30e92f…
08-02 01:42:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	1,350	86¢	$1,161	0x2b5698…
08-02 00:10:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	600	75¢	$450	0x19e7a0…
08-01 23:53:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	700	84¢	$586	0x0292c7…
08-01 23:51:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	274	84¢	$230	0xc8e465…
08-01 23:51:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x96d2f0…
08-01 20:17:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	500	63¢	$315	0x656551…
08-01 20:16:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	1,124	70¢	$787	0xf65802…
08-01 18:34:09	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	395	33¢	$130	0x72eb8b…
08-01 18:32:33	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x729c9a…
08-01 18:31:36	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x5cf61d…
08-01 18:31:36	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x28150d…
08-01 18:31:35	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	848	33¢	$280	0xa7f42a…
08-01 16:17:05	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	105	31¢	$33	0xa59f63…
07-31 03:15:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	294	28¢	$82	0x9a2a11…
07-31 03:13:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xc98aa7…
07-31 03:02:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x108ddb…
07-30 21:50:38	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0xfc9286…
07-30 21:50:36	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	1,462	71¢	$1,038	0x8c99e8…
07-30 21:12:05	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	333	72¢	$240	0x8ef295…
07-30 21:12:03	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xe9771b…
07-28 14:19:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,500	55¢	$830	0xfa3a04…
07-22 22:50:58	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	7,000	100¢	$6,993	0x5051f0…
07-20 15:59:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xdc22be…
07-20 15:59:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	32	39¢	$13	0xd3bff4…
07-20 15:57:58	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xd57cbe…
07-20 15:57:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	700	43¢	$299	0x05e4c6…
07-20 15:57:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	800	44¢	$352	0x0dff17…
07-20 15:55:45	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	108	39¢	$42	0x8b61a9…
07-20 15:55:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x279a67…
07-20 15:54:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	300	41¢	$123	0x1985ca…
07-20 15:54:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	530	42¢	$223	0x512038…
07-20 15:52:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x293aed…
07-20 15:52:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	24	39¢	$9	0xee4913…
07-20 15:52:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xd8ffe2…
07-20 15:51:55	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x56528b…
07-20 15:51:54	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x55e7e1…
07-20 15:51:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xfa35b8…
07-20 15:51:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x00d5d3…
07-20 02:11:37	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	64	99¢	$64	0x6fbf7e…
07-20 01:34:16	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,527	99¢	$2,504	0x73e8c4…