Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$131

Unrealized P&L

-$41

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

Trades

214

lifetime

Volume

$4.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$407

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-01 00:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

92% 42% -$172

Politics

8% 50% +$41

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-231	-$228	99¢	$-229	$0	10-30 15:28
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	-88	-$81	94¢	$-83	-$2	10-15 05:57
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	-68	-$66	98¢	$-66	+$0	10-31 04:08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	-22	-$21	97¢	$-21	$0	10-28 15:38
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+264	$47	2¢	$6	-$41	11-01 00:33
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	-15	-$4	11¢	$-2	+$3	09-25 15:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	62	$1.1K	909	769	+140	Yes	+$123	02-21 20:12
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	22	$635	1,389	1,086	+303	Yes	-$76	01-31 00:14
Will a hurricane form by May 31?	13	$262	1,811	1,751	+60	No	-$10	05-14 17:58
will january 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	2	$249	0	267	-267	Yes	-$17	01-20 17:40
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	3	$238	129	129	+0	No	+$16	03-09 18:08
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	13	$236	956	0	+956	open	—	10-30 16:44
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	3	$228	0	231	-231	open	—	10-30 15:28
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	12	$215	367	303	+64	No	-$55	02-28 13:01
us strike on somalia by january 31	5	$210	605	535	+70	Yes	+$10	01-09 09:52
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	3	$196	132	100	+32	No	+$27	03-09 23:00
odds of gov shutdown over 90 on friday night	2	$160	393	393	+0	Yes	-$70	01-31 00:06
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$153	84	84	+0	open	—	10-25 22:09
Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	10	$116	1,193	0	+1,193	open	—	10-29 10:49
will the us collect between 200b and 500b in revenue in 2025	2	$99	396	0	+396	No	-$99	02-13 16:13
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$93	100	0	+100	Yes	+$7	04-27 13:44
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	3	$81	0	88	-88	open	—	10-15 05:57
nothing ever happens israel edition	3	$81	118	36	+82	No	-$39	01-09 13:12
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	10	$79	1,056	792	+264	open	—	11-01 00:33
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	13	$66	0	68	-68	open	—	10-31 04:08
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	4	$60	0	71	-71	open	—	10-25 21:43
will tim walz activate the national guard in mn by march 31	1	$50	100	0	+100	Yes	-$50	01-08 21:44
Major US official out by April 30?	3	$49	60	0	+60	No	+$11	04-27 16:22
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$36	26	26	+0	Yes	+$16	01-30 22:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$32	50	0	+50	No	+$18	04-18 09:12
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$29	0	152	-152	Yes	+$29	09-18 20:18
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	1	$21	0	22	-22	open	—	10-28 15:38
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	1	$20	26	0	+26	Yes	+$6	01-08 22:22
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	3	$13	6	21	-15	open	—	10-25 21:43
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	2	$12	100	100	+0	Yes	-$11	10-30 14:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$12	10	8	+2	No	$0	05-07 17:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 00:33:34	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xc17266…
10-31 04:08:48	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x152e03…
10-31 04:06:24	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8178e5…
10-31 04:01:48	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xfe2ff4…
10-31 03:58:39	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x96ea26…
10-31 03:57:06	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x79d4b5…
10-31 03:53:25	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xacce55…
10-31 03:51:42	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x8afd14…
10-31 03:16:39	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x763e22…
10-31 03:14:49	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xd75ddb…
10-31 03:09:15	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb64839…
10-31 02:24:00	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa9dac1…
10-30 22:02:34	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	785	2¢	$16	0x514063…
10-30 21:46:58	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x11b85c…
10-30 16:44:48	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x82d5d6…
10-30 16:33:34	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xb7ee13…
10-30 16:23:03	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0xedb1a7…
10-30 16:22:25	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xa7eba7…
10-30 16:22:16	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0x27271a…
10-30 15:31:49	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xe097c0…
10-30 15:28:25	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	127	99¢	$125	0xda3276…
10-30 14:07:33	Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x1a879f…
10-30 08:22:09	Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xbc6f68…
10-30 02:41:54	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xa0e90b…
10-29 10:52:19	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	334	3¢	$10	0x711761…
10-29 10:49:55	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xe9ffc1…
10-29 10:49:53	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	290	10¢	$30	0x743370…
10-28 15:48:35	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	210	10¢	$22	0x72e9b6…
10-28 15:47:23	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x2ad4b4…
10-28 15:46:38	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	210	10¢	$22	0x06c03b…
10-28 15:44:34	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	70	22¢	$15	0x6a94cc…
10-28 15:43:53	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	236	3¢	$7	0x7bec52…
10-28 15:43:07	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xdaca1b…
10-28 15:39:23	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x138719…
10-28 15:38:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0x10b5ea…
10-28 15:38:43	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0x6b102a…
10-28 14:00:29	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	110	10¢	$10	0x5b9430…
10-25 22:09:09	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xf2d9d0…
10-25 22:03:20	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	131	9¢	$11	0x8bcf58…
10-25 21:43:50	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xf895df…
10-25 21:43:35	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0x22edc2…
10-21 09:14:06	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0xe9781b…
10-21 09:13:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xd701c6…
10-21 09:11:59	Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0xa3a2c5…
10-21 09:07:24	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0x793a72…
10-21 09:06:44	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$6	0x35d9ff…
10-16 14:32:33	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0x973e87…
10-15 07:35:38	will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the uptspt in 2026 954	No	BUY	91	31¢	$28	0xadc2ee…
10-15 06:11:26	will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the uptspt in 2026 954	No	BUY	34	31¢	$11	0x97d137…
10-15 06:10:44	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	135	7¢	$9	0x9acf98…
10-15 06:09:52	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x24430b…
10-15 06:09:14	Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?	No	SELL	53	84¢	$44	0x3e4790…
10-15 06:05:38	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	35	6¢	$2	0x4b4314…
10-15 06:04:19	will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the uptspt in 2026 954	No	BUY	62	29¢	$18	0xdf8872…
10-15 06:04:19	will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the uptspt in 2026 954	No	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0x5fec1e…
10-15 05:57:56	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	SELL	28	91¢	$26	0x263f57…
09-30 15:44:38	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x943141…
09-30 15:25:09	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x118db6…
09-30 15:03:27	will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the uptspt in 2026 954	No	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x407295…
09-30 15:01:54	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	199	15¢	$30	0x884384…
09-30 15:01:05	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0x013a83…
09-30 14:59:15	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x84fffd…
09-30 14:54:47	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xbdaadc…
09-25 15:44:06	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x4ee208…
09-18 20:18:10	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	152	19¢	$29	0xcf77d6…
08-02 23:11:14	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x81c5bf…
05-14 17:58:24	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0xa9fa09…
05-09 06:33:45	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	SELL	316	2¢	$5	0x00bbb9…
05-09 06:06:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	89¢	$55	0x0dbe37…
05-07 17:35:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	84	91¢	$76	0x371666…
05-07 17:18:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x2ae42d…
05-07 17:18:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x29b7b4…
04-27 16:22:00	Major US official out by April 30?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x2f10e0…
04-27 15:27:48	Major US official out by April 30?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xb3ea33…
04-27 13:51:44	Major US official out by April 30?	No	BUY	55	81¢	$44	0xc8725b…
04-27 13:44:22	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x4b5635…
04-27 13:37:30	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$0	0x48dbd2…
04-27 13:34:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xa557a7…
04-18 09:12:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xdbde19…
04-13 16:55:59	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x628303…
04-11 18:04:29	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xa25a66…
04-10 15:53:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	5¢	$4	0x123cc2…
03-25 01:34:01	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	SELL	141	11¢	$16	0xd02fea…
03-14 03:56:01	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	BUY	166	6¢	$10	0x24b32a…
03-11 10:34:09	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0xd57ba7…
03-09 23:05:07	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	SELL	68	9¢	$6	0xfdbe67…
03-09 23:00:41	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0xc3b458…
03-09 18:08:57	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	SELL	129	98¢	$127	0x8ec810…
02-28 15:31:43	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xa66844…
02-28 13:01:29	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	64	44¢	$28	0xc8abc5…
02-28 12:57:47	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x80185a…
02-27 15:31:01	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	71	20¢	$14	0x7ef62e…
02-27 15:22:13	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0xc41f93…
02-27 15:20:29	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	65	20¢	$13	0xfcc0e3…
02-27 14:19:27	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x7a21b7…
02-27 11:26:03	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	43	15¢	$6	0xf35521…
02-21 20:12:42	will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	Yes	SELL	76	95¢	$72	0xe65cfd…
02-21 20:08:14	will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2c6de3…
02-21 20:08:06	will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x134d14…
02-21 20:08:02	will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x0f2be2…