Realized P&L
+$491
Unrealized P&L
+$708
Hit rate
71.4%
Resolved
7,860
Trades
54,467
lifetime
Volume
$223.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.99K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-31
last 10-23 17:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 89 days
Categories
Other
93% 45% +$324
Politics
3% 47% +$146
Crypto
3% 42% -$2
Sports
1% 44% +$20
Tech
0% 75% +$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 1238 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +145 $69 93¢ $135 +$66 08-27 07:58
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31 No +148 $65 91¢ $135 +$69 08-13 18:58
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +136 $84 96¢ $131 +$47 10-20 14:47
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +150 $92 84¢ $127 +$35 10-05 17:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +119 $88 99¢ $117 +$30 09-05 12:32
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +110 $46 98¢ $108 +$62 10-12 17:37
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +90 $68 96¢ $87 +$19 10-22 14:10
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +90 $49 86¢ $77 +$28 08-20 23:47
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +90 $55 84¢ $75 +$20 09-21 16:44
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +90 $46 81¢ $73 +$28 09-21 18:14
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +71 $43 96¢ $68 +$25 09-29 20:42
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +70 $53 97¢ $68 +$15 10-22 03:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +70 $49 96¢ $67 +$18 09-15 17:54
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +60 $35 98¢ $59 +$24 08-20 23:26
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +80 $57 72¢ $57 +$0 09-28 14:43
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? No +50 $28 99¢ $49 +$21 10-06 17:04
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +50 $18 98¢ $49 +$31 10-04 22:59
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +50 $24 96¢ $48 +$23 10-07 23:48
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +50 $24 96¢ $48 +$24 10-12 18:39
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +60 $45 76¢ $46 +$0 09-28 11:47
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +50 $27 88¢ $44 +$17 10-21 09:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +50 $32 84¢ $42 +$10 09-05 10:10
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +40 $24 98¢ $39 +$15 09-06 20:46
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Yes +39 $23 100¢ $39 +$16 10-21 19:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +60 $21 63¢ $38 +$17 10-19 17:49
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +38 $13 100¢ $38 +$25 09-12 21:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +40 $32 94¢ $37 +$5 10-21 20:36
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +40 $23 82¢ $33 +$10 09-20 16:12
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +33 $28 96¢ $32 +$4 10-19 20:10
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +30 $23 94¢ $28 +$5 09-20 17:53