Intentional-Inhibition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.20K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.00K

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

286

Trades

10,419

lifetime

Volume

$350.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$1.98K

22 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-28 01:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Politics

60% 56% +$7,324

Other

37% 52% +$1,312

Crypto

3% 62% -$432

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 263 trades/day

Open positions (22) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+6,981	$872	6¢	$384	-$488	10-27 20:54
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+7,443	$537	5¢	$354	-$184	10-24 20:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+3,944	$519	6¢	$217	-$302	10-26 23:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+259	$199	60¢	$154	-$46	10-22 21:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+1,009	$289	15¢	$146	-$143	10-27 17:20
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+2,656	$482	6¢	$146	-$336	10-21 12:43
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+8,060	$766	2¢	$121	-$645	10-26 03:07
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	+901	-$209	13¢	$117	+$326	10-25 23:26
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+3,312	$212	3¢	$94	-$118	09-10 14:13
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	+2,042	$43	3¢	$63	+$20	10-25 18:11
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+2,192	$195	3¢	$61	-$134	08-30 23:31
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+400	$16	7¢	$29	+$13	10-12 12:50
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-619	-$190	4¢	$-28	+$163	05-25 16:00
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	+1,710	$179	1¢	$23	-$156	10-10 16:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+3,911	$86	0¢	$10	-$76	10-08 18:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	+160	-$105	5¢	$8	+$113	10-28 01:05
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	+1,133	$11	1¢	$7	-$4	10-27 20:01
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$8	3¢	$6	-$2	09-23 21:39
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	+53	$27	11¢	$6	-$21	05-17 13:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	+277	$21	2¢	$5	-$15	10-26 07:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$28	22¢	$0	+$28	10-19 12:30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$3	35¢	$0	+$3	10-20 15:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	275	$15.5K	22,583	18,031	+4,552	Yes	+$2,520	06-14 12:24
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	231	$12.1K	40,417	39,516	+901	open	—	10-25 23:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	338	$10.1K	9,217	9,130	+87	No	+$2,043	05-27 17:33
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	335	$10.0K	14,532	15,731	-1,200	Yes	+$301	09-12 22:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	135	$9.3K	5,276	4,392	+884	No	+$167	05-01 02:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	139	$8.0K	17,717	10,736	+6,981	open	—	10-27 20:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	160	$6.3K	6,253	6,248	+5	No	+$270	06-30 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	108	$6.1K	6,158	5,669	+489	No	+$307	07-02 07:27
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	207	$5.7K	17,513	17,513	+0	Yes	+$525	08-11 13:29
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	144	$5.3K	27,580	24,924	+2,656	open	—	10-21 12:43
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	55	$4.5K	4,029	4,029	+0	No	+$1,687	08-30 19:29
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	115	$4.4K	8,446	8,446	+0	No	+$271	07-24 14:19
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	103	$4.4K	5,212	5,212	+0	No	+$224	07-29 22:16
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	95	$4.3K	5,564	5,564	+0	No	+$330	08-02 00:55
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	90	$4.3K	6,292	6,292	+0	Yes	+$1,092	06-07 18:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	94	$4.2K	4,289	3,931	+358	Yes	-$51	06-14 21:51
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	161	$4.1K	6,570	6,048	+522	Yes	-$173	09-30 11:26
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	106	$4.0K	7,276	5,933	+1,343	Yes	+$967	10-06 07:44
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?	139	$3.9K	4,492	3,389	+1,103	No	-$240	09-30 10:09
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	135	$3.9K	3,073	3,406	-333	No	+$559	03-08 23:19
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	70	$3.8K	8,531	8,530	+1	No	-$51	07-14 04:18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	102	$3.6K	9,664	8,655	+1,009	open	—	10-27 17:20
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	96	$3.6K	3,951	4,950	-999	Yes	+$461	06-17 15:18
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	58	$3.6K	4,611	4,611	+0	Yes	+$395	09-07 20:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	75	$3.5K	14,317	14,317	+0	No	+$442	09-28 13:44
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	47	$3.3K	3,700	3,699	+0	Yes	-$220	08-18 18:23
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	73	$3.3K	4,245	4,245	+0	Yes	+$246	08-08 15:29
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	14	$3.3K	2,928	1,662	+1,267	Yes	-$671	06-13 13:09
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	93	$3.2K	2,353	2,353	+0	Yes	+$128	08-11 13:30
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	43	$2.9K	2,375	2,994	-619	open	—	05-25 16:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:05:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	87	5¢	$4	0xad22d1…
10-27 20:54:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	61	7¢	$4	0xeb5522…
10-27 20:44:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	64	5¢	$3	0xa89ac1…
10-27 20:19:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	701	7¢	$49	0x3c9687…
10-27 20:01:54	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	626	1¢	$4	0x1165f1…
10-27 17:20:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x8dfdb3…
10-27 17:17:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	15¢	$4	0xf43760…
10-27 17:11:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x0bc4ab…
10-27 15:30:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	947	6¢	$57	0xe50755…
10-27 13:49:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	15¢	$3	0x9836ac…
10-27 13:47:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x49ef98…
10-27 13:45:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	35	15¢	$5	0xcbc5ea…
10-27 13:13:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	16¢	$3	0xb9ad1b…
10-27 11:05:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	336	7¢	$23	0x9f47c7…
10-27 10:45:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	164	10¢	$16	0x700b7b…
10-27 10:44:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	126	11¢	$14	0x8fa74a…
10-27 10:44:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0xa48372…
10-27 10:18:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xbb1e1e…
10-27 09:25:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	53	15¢	$8	0xc6a08d…
10-27 06:42:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	86	10¢	$9	0xc31a67…
10-27 05:03:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	539	8¢	$43	0x089756…
10-27 04:14:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	552	9¢	$50	0x4daedf…
10-27 02:23:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	174	16¢	$28	0xd7d07d…
10-27 01:58:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x5ebc85…
10-27 01:58:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	4	12¢	$1	0x288f33…
10-27 01:58:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	56	12¢	$7	0x226f38…
10-27 01:58:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x71e637…
10-27 01:33:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xec0648…
10-27 01:24:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	314	10¢	$31	0x3f14f1…
10-27 01:09:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xf9201f…
10-27 01:09:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xaf75ab…
10-27 01:09:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x2b8db5…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xfd6ad4…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	4	12¢	$1	0xf84bc6…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0xec1302…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xe92a53…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xd27adb…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0xb814fc…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	4	12¢	$0	0x9dfdf3…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x6ee2af…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x6a19a3…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x66d513…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x607c8d…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x43d1c7…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x35f561…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x2c9cb7…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x266b12…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x1f0e2f…
10-27 01:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x1bf3e0…
10-27 00:59:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xee3009…
10-27 00:59:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xb21835…
10-27 00:59:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x855448…
10-27 00:59:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x29bbcd…
10-27 00:59:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x06df70…
10-27 00:30:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x63653d…
10-26 23:04:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0xe0d547…
10-26 22:54:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	209	11¢	$23	0x96691d…
10-26 22:39:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	42	40¢	$17	0x8d0e0b…
10-26 22:39:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	59	40¢	$24	0x0c0c49…
10-26 22:38:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	65	7¢	$5	0x1ff816…
10-26 22:00:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	689	39¢	$269	0x9da9e1…
10-26 21:26:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	149	12¢	$18	0xbb9a98…
10-26 20:35:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?	Yes	BUY	26	32¢	$8	0x37f283…
10-26 20:31:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	125	10¢	$12	0x9ae7df…
10-26 20:05:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x08e90a…
10-26 20:04:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x85939d…
10-26 20:04:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x6eabb3…
10-26 20:04:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	134	14¢	$19	0x9a9366…
10-26 17:18:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	229	14¢	$32	0x191ce3…
10-26 11:21:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	153	15¢	$23	0x0c2e31…
10-26 11:04:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	44	52¢	$23	0x223776…
10-26 08:35:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x9d6908…
10-26 08:34:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xb2d61b…
10-26 08:33:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0x5240ec…
10-26 08:32:56	will wti reach 105 in november 2026	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x5c33c1…
10-26 08:32:56	will wti reach 105 in november 2026	Yes	BUY	44	73¢	$32	0x04d6e7…
10-26 07:44:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	SELL	337	4¢	$13	0xc56fcc…
10-26 07:43:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	350	14¢	$49	0x87ca2f…
10-26 07:42:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0xe6b69e…
10-26 07:42:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	137	15¢	$21	0x2d4120…
10-26 06:13:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	82	16¢	$13	0x15dd6b…
10-26 05:57:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	36	12¢	$4	0x64fe5c…
10-26 05:27:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xbc733e…
10-26 04:10:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	399	16¢	$64	0x9f8bf6…
10-26 04:03:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	500	14¢	$70	0xf5dabd…
10-26 04:03:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	308	14¢	$43	0x03441d…
10-26 04:03:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x89585d…
10-26 03:49:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0x95541a…
10-26 03:20:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	474	7¢	$33	0x6e5c28…
10-26 03:07:53	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	2,445	3¢	$73	0x1c7797…
10-26 02:58:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	848	18¢	$153	0x887f87…
10-26 02:21:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	287	16¢	$46	0xfd9de5…
10-26 02:20:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	202	17¢	$34	0x41bdf3…
10-26 00:27:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	SELL	1,795	4¢	$66	0xe526fc…
10-26 00:03:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	100	24¢	$24	0x6db7de…
10-25 23:26:56	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	SELL	75	14¢	$11	0x3c5150…
10-25 23:16:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xd1a988…
10-25 23:12:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	208	18¢	$37	0xb4f07c…
10-25 23:12:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	249	14¢	$35	0xfdd293…
10-25 23:01:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	61	15¢	$9	0x082435…