Classic-Pen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.10K

Unrealized P&L

+$23

Hit rate

70.5%

Resolved

127

Trades

586

lifetime

Volume

$69.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$118

Open exposure

$207

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-21 18:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

67% 70% -$2,489

Other

32% 75% +$408

Tech

1% 0% -$12

Sports

0% 11% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+214	$184	97¢	$207	+$23	10-21 18:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	24	$7.6K	11,214	7,514	+3,700	Yes	-$2,769	04-09 23:37
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	12	$2.9K	1,450	1,450	+0	No	+$25	03-28 20:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$2.5K	1,316	1,316	+0	No	-$9	04-09 19:22
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	19	$2.5K	2,467	200	+2,267	No	+$115	03-29 23:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	37	$2.4K	11,084	11,201	-117	No	-$95	04-10 17:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	4	$2.4K	1,532	916	+616	No	+$62	01-31 18:13
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	8	$2.3K	4,907	4,572	+335	No	+$58	01-28 03:24
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	14	$2.1K	1,103	1,103	+0	No	+$55	02-28 16:30
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	14	$2.0K	1,021	1,021	+0	No	+$66	03-28 20:52
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	14	$1.9K	1,988	0	+1,988	Yes	+$70	03-01 16:34
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	7	$1.9K	1,905	0	+1,905	Yes	+$19	03-03 15:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$1.7K	1,034	1,034	+0	No	-$21	04-25 20:32
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	4	$1.7K	1,700	0	+1,700	Yes	+$19	03-02 16:07
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	3	$1.6K	1,598	0	+1,598	No	+$13	01-03 20:07
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	18	$1.6K	1,669	0	+1,669	Yes	+$104	02-28 20:37
will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	5	$1.4K	1,457	0	+1,457	Yes	+$25	03-09 01:56
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	5	$1.4K	750	750	+0	No	-$53	04-07 20:17
will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	6	$1.3K	1,316	0	+1,316	Yes	+$18	03-05 16:12
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by february 28	9	$1.3K	665	665	+0	No	+$34	02-28 16:35
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	6	$1.2K	629	629	+0	No	+$21	02-01 21:36
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$1.2K	679	679	+0	Yes	+$135	04-13 08:39
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?	4	$915	469	469	+0	No	+$15	02-11 15:21
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	2	$804	812	0	+812	Yes	+$8	03-04 15:56
us strike on colombia by january 31	7	$784	406	406	+0	No	+$16	01-11 02:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	9	$767	399	399	+0	Yes	-$6	02-28 18:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	10	$700	475	274	+201	No	-$2	01-31 20:27
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	6	$700	706	0	+706	Yes	+$6	03-06 17:38
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	5	$690	700	0	+700	Yes	+$10	03-04 16:22
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by march 31	11	$664	372	348	+24	No	-$5	03-01 16:33
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	4	$629	322	322	+0	No	+$11	03-29 22:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 18:46:05	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x7852b5…
10-21 18:45:36	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	93	93¢	$86	0x2bb21e…
10-21 18:39:50	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	114	86¢	$98	0xf8f33f…
10-21 18:39:27	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xf5cba7…
10-21 18:34:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xf06338…
10-21 18:34:00	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0x355dad…
08-21 16:12:36	will russia capture lyman by september 30 2026	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x2383f7…
08-21 16:08:36	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x438bcb…
06-20 03:53:08	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	94¢	$106	0x778dc3…
06-20 03:45:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0x36a4d1…
06-20 03:45:20	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0x91146c…
06-20 03:44:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	128	98¢	$126	0x97d273…
06-20 03:44:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	64	94¢	$60	0xdc7ab9…
06-17 17:26:05	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	6,000	0¢	$12	0xe7996f…
06-17 17:25:46	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x6c2e82…
06-17 17:25:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	4,500	0¢	$9	0x2aadd7…
06-17 17:24:14	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xba867c…
06-16 17:28:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	310	1¢	$2	0x395126…
06-16 17:27:49	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x0ee53b…
06-15 20:30:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	198	5¢	$10	0x6e8e1f…
06-15 20:30:18	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x986d8b…
06-15 20:29:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	133	5¢	$7	0x252bce…
06-14 19:46:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x960546…
06-14 19:44:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x843a76…
06-13 20:46:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	34	54¢	$18	0x125130…
06-13 20:30:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	28	74¢	$21	0x6b7576…
06-13 20:28:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	62	74¢	$46	0xc09c43…
06-13 20:27:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	94¢	$65	0xd84672…
06-13 19:03:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	83	74¢	$62	0x8753eb…
06-13 19:03:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	66	94¢	$62	0x285e9f…
06-10 18:51:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xebf22e…
06-10 18:50:48	Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x32490e…
06-10 18:50:01	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x892673…
06-10 18:49:55	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xebbcf3…
06-08 21:09:30	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x91447b…
06-08 21:08:51	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xb7f390…
06-08 17:39:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xc83160…
06-08 17:38:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0xa9a430…
06-08 06:31:46	Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	58¢	$6	0xfb4da7…
06-08 02:46:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xb3c858…
06-08 01:29:10	Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	27¢	$9	0x4ffe81…
06-07 23:51:13	Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xeb71ec…
06-07 23:50:34	Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x132cbc…
06-07 23:50:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	164	100¢	$163	0xc07073…
06-07 07:28:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0xb8068b…
06-07 00:03:49	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xad1b4a…
06-06 00:59:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xf69f2b…
06-06 00:58:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x58c601…
06-03 19:54:13	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x44ea08…
06-03 19:53:57	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xb23a6e…
06-03 19:49:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x5c4d42…
06-02 17:27:47	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0x5d4ae1…
06-02 17:25:08	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0x32d271…
06-02 17:24:55	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2a98b8…
06-02 17:24:40	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xae6bc4…
06-02 17:10:22	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x11d1e2…
06-02 16:54:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xd791ab…
06-01 23:55:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xfa2a41…
06-01 22:37:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xaf646d…
06-01 11:39:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x901ae2…
06-01 11:39:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x19bc10…
06-01 11:38:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x02dbf4…
06-01 10:33:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x07be03…
05-31 20:23:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xd381dd…
05-31 20:21:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x0dc97c…
05-31 20:21:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x4e6928…
05-31 20:19:10	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0x75281b…
05-31 20:18:59	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0x6f20af…
05-29 19:36:01	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0x9dea88…
05-29 19:35:33	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$65	0xfe8321…
05-29 19:35:16	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	99	94¢	$94	0x739229…
05-28 05:17:39	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	90¢	$42	0x5918a5…
05-28 05:17:20	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0xda8eec…
05-28 03:30:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0xc30075…
05-27 19:52:21	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x672a47…
05-27 19:48:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xada6cd…
05-26 21:49:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x1a0cc2…
05-26 21:49:00	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	91¢	$42	0x8158cb…
05-26 21:48:39	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	151	99¢	$149	0xfbf331…
05-26 09:15:59	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x150902…
05-26 09:15:09	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x897709…
05-25 21:51:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	25	78¢	$19	0xe0ebfd…
05-25 02:08:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x285a5f…
05-25 02:07:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0xb5040a…
05-25 02:07:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	91	85¢	$77	0x1ebbaa…
05-25 02:07:40	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	171	87¢	$149	0x7971e6…
05-24 23:04:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xabd33b…
05-24 23:01:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x3bb5e7…
05-24 21:38:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xf0d6ef…
05-24 21:38:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	45	83¢	$37	0xbf8b33…
05-24 21:37:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	SELL	75	91¢	$68	0x4e586e…
05-24 11:12:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9bcce4…
05-24 10:26:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	70	93¢	$65	0x6f218c…
05-24 10:21:35	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x6d6179…
05-24 10:20:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xd8a358…
05-24 10:11:00	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xc32163…
05-24 10:10:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	37	24¢	$9	0xad66e3…
05-24 10:10:32	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xa02120…
05-24 10:10:30	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x5fe7bb…
05-24 10:10:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x6bc319…