Outlying-Duffel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

20.2%

Resolved

Trades

277

lifetime

Volume

$27.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-19 00:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 100% +$0

Other

42% — —

Tech

6% — —

Politics

5% 0% —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes		-6	$-3	74¢	$-4	$-2	06-13 09:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	12	$1.3K	687	687	+0	open	—	01-28 07:14
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	4	$852	432	432	+0	open	—	03-16 09:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$851	438	438	+0	open	—	03-23 03:46
will crude oil cl hit low 45 by end of march 524 288 596 421 318 497 667 674 276 275	4	$847	426	426	+0	open	—	03-22 07:18
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	2	$840	420	420	+0	open	—	02-19 14:03
btc updown 15m 1771479000	22	$714	559	559	+0	open	—	02-19 05:33
bitcoin above 66k on march 20	3	$642	429	214	+214	open	—	03-20 09:18
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$591	297	297	+0	open	—	02-18 04:54
bitcoin above 66k on april 9	2	$433	217	217	+0	open	—	04-09 07:43
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	2	$433	219	219	+0	open	—	04-02 06:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$433	220	220	+0	open	—	04-10 03:41
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	46	$433	217	216	+0	open	—	04-14 18:17
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$432	216	216	+0	open	—	03-30 02:16
will gold gc hit high 5600 by end of march	2	$432	216	216	+0	open	—	03-31 05:36
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	8	$432	222	222	-0	open	—	04-16 05:59
highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	2	$431	216	216	+0	open	—	04-16 06:17
bitcoin above 66k on march 21	2	$428	214	214	+0	open	—	03-21 02:18
will solana reach 150 in march 2026	2	$428	215	215	+0	open	—	03-23 03:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$428	215	215	+0	open	—	03-25 04:08
Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$426	213	213	+0	open	—	03-18 04:26
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$426	216	216	+0	open	—	03-18 04:26
will zai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	2	$426	213	213	+0	open	—	03-19 05:19
bitcoin above 64k on march 6	2	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	03-06 13:27
will crude oil cl hit low 40 by end of march 777 183 974 725 949 716 258 533 859 313 659 847	6	$420	211	211	+0	open	—	03-09 07:47
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 220 239	3	$420	213	213	+0	open	—	03-08 05:03
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$420	213	213	+0	open	—	03-07 06:14
will vertiv holdings vrt be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	2	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	03-08 04:58
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$420	211	211	+0	open	—	03-11 02:24
will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	5	$420	210	210	+0	open	—	03-12 07:08
bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	2	$419	210	210	+0	open	—	03-14 06:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 00:33:55	will wti dip to 20 in july 2026 174	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x0ffd98…
07-18 21:12:54	will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x5a9e61…
07-17 03:30:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x47f8db…
07-17 03:29:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xbcf661…
07-14 08:52:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9b8d19…
07-13 07:27:47	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0xa0154b…
07-11 07:13:35	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x438c9e…
07-01 11:06:26	bitcoin above 56k on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x82aa8b…
06-13 09:51:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x76508a…
06-12 09:39:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xe933f1…
06-12 09:30:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb4267e…
06-12 09:30:15	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x90cc4a…
06-06 07:01:00	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0dc41a…
06-03 09:43:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x00ce4b…
06-02 09:13:30	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xcb9f06…
06-02 09:10:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xdf674b…
05-29 09:03:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x1aad9c…
05-29 08:42:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x68d014…
05-29 08:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	13	89¢	$12	0x3d2a2a…
05-28 13:17:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa96268…
05-28 10:59:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8a1b20…
05-14 16:33:35	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x4fe7d5…
05-13 07:38:30	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3aeef6…
05-13 07:37:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xeae1f6…
05-13 07:37:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x01156f…
05-11 11:54:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9ebdc8…
05-08 04:01:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa1acb5…
05-08 02:05:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbc37a8…
05-06 02:00:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x2f66cb…
05-06 01:55:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5b9cb9…
04-16 06:17:20	highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	Yes	SELL	216	100¢	$215	0x82a901…
04-16 06:01:28	highest temperature in hong kong on april 16 2026 30corhigher	Yes	BUY	216	100¢	$216	0x23db72…
04-16 05:59:06	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	222	97¢	$216	0x303425…
04-16 01:31:22	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xc11714…
04-16 01:23:12	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0xda76e5…
04-16 00:16:18	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x8a4419…
04-16 00:08:14	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8bfcaa…
04-15 22:07:52	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$2	0x0faaa8…
04-15 22:07:38	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xe61443…
04-15 13:37:24	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x9910f0…
04-14 18:17:28	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xfd29fb…
04-14 12:07:25	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbcccc1…
04-14 09:43:09	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x73ad0f…
04-14 09:12:09	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaa7fe1…
04-14 07:59:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	127	99¢	$125	0x129ac3…
04-14 07:56:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	58	99¢	$58	0x8b7dcc…
04-14 07:40:47	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc167a9…
04-14 07:17:37	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x342322…
04-14 06:19:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	185	99¢	$183	0x62897e…
04-14 06:03:21	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x8694e1…
04-14 03:05:07	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x94da1d…
04-13 23:22:59	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0c0d2f…
04-13 23:21:55	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xce52c0…
04-13 23:21:49	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbc6ed2…
04-13 23:21:19	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x695983…
04-13 23:21:11	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x54949c…
04-13 23:09:59	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4ff4d1…
04-13 23:09:51	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0c55d7…
04-13 23:08:27	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3ba62c…
04-13 23:08:23	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0fcf12…
04-13 23:08:17	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf74dae…
04-13 23:08:13	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe56200…
04-13 23:08:09	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x1cff29…
04-13 23:08:07	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x412865…
04-13 23:08:01	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x4729f8…
04-13 23:07:47	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8de585…
04-13 23:07:41	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe558ce…
04-13 23:07:29	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4c93d9…
04-13 23:07:25	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xfee3a3…
04-13 23:07:25	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb7c792…
04-13 23:07:21	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x6a1f2e…
04-13 23:07:19	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x377209…
04-13 23:07:17	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x05b527…
04-13 23:06:59	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa15b80…
04-13 23:06:55	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2950d9…
04-13 23:06:37	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd4d639…
04-13 23:06:17	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8b7f2d…
04-13 12:34:03	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc85972…
04-13 07:21:29	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc95131…
04-13 07:12:39	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0f645f…
04-13 03:13:07	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x007012…
04-13 03:01:57	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5a1ec6…
04-12 10:46:29	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x808b14…
04-12 09:46:15	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x254c6d…
04-12 06:46:13	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x644ed9…
04-12 03:49:07	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9711b0…
04-12 03:15:35	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x49295e…
04-12 02:42:17	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1de54e…
04-10 11:12:57	Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	217	100¢	$216	0xe717cd…
04-10 03:41:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	220	98¢	$216	0x96bb55…
04-09 07:44:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	220	98¢	$217	0x078c21…
04-09 07:43:39	bitcoin above 66k on april 9	Yes	SELL	217	100¢	$217	0x664746…
04-09 07:43:31	bitcoin above 66k on april 9	Yes	BUY	217	100¢	$217	0x3ecd8b…
04-02 06:49:27	bitcoin above 62k on april 2	Yes	BUY	217	100¢	$216	0x5d05ec…
04-02 06:49:09	Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	219	99¢	$216	0xf8aeb4…
04-02 06:49:01	Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	219	99¢	$217	0xd1af2a…
04-01 09:17:57	bitcoin above 64k on april 1	Yes	BUY	217	100¢	$216	0x0847bc…
03-31 05:36:53	will ethereum dip to 1600 in march 2026	No	BUY	216	100¢	$216	0x5231cd…
03-31 05:36:25	will gold gc hit high 5600 by end of march	No	SELL	216	100¢	$216	0x03f486…
03-30 02:17:10	will gold gc hit high 5600 by end of march	No	BUY	216	100¢	$216	0x94d050…