Ironclad-Alien — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

476

lifetime

Volume

$27.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 08-11 01:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$8

Other

40% 100% +$9

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	04-07 22:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	9	$924	640	515	+125	open	—	08-05 02:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$919	968	130	+838	open	—	06-02 22:22
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	37	$691	1,094	994	+100	open	—	08-02 14:39
will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	2	$588	400	200	+200	open	—	08-11 01:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$577	400	220	+180	open	—	05-27 04:26
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	8	$533	350	250	+100	open	—	08-01 02:03
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$526	535	0	+535	No	+$9	04-20 18:39
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	5	$526	390	190	+200	open	—	08-10 15:49
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$496	500	0	+500	open	—	03-26 14:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$473	480	0	+480	open	—	06-29 05:27
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	15	$436	326	326	+0	open	—	07-31 19:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$433	340	240	+100	open	—	05-24 23:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	11	$430	360	195	+165	open	—	06-15 20:04
will the us strike iran next 433	4	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	01-23 22:23
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	13	$394	250	230	+20	open	—	08-07 14:19
daniel negreanu 20260707143201179	2	$393	395	0	+395	open	—	07-13 22:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	5	$384	240	160	+80	open	—	05-22 17:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$382	260	260	+0	open	—	07-31 21:21
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 28 2026	6	$366	413	0	+413	open	—	07-27 14:34
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	5	$357	219	259	-40	open	—	08-02 03:09
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	4	$356	200	200	+0	open	—	07-30 23:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$350	340	40	+300	open	—	06-28 18:50
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	14	$350	650	650	+0	open	—	07-29 23:26
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	2	$312	320	0	+320	open	—	06-29 14:04
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$310	320	0	+320	open	—	08-04 16:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$309	335	0	+335	open	—	02-28 20:49
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	1	$299	300	0	+300	open	—	05-16 22:22
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$298	300	0	+300	open	—	06-07 23:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$283	320	260	+60	open	—	08-09 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 01:11:54	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0xdcb8f0…
08-10 15:49:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0x6e3fe8…
08-09 21:14:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	101	52¢	$52	0x1446ce…
08-08 19:06:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	130	92¢	$120	0xb7d5e0…
08-08 12:09:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	47	94¢	$44	0xbe01d7…
08-08 12:08:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xfcba63…
08-08 12:07:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x43c0d7…
08-08 12:06:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x6b8902…
08-08 12:05:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xef93c1…
08-08 12:04:40	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	BUY	400	98¢	$391	0x5a78c5…
08-07 14:19:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x40100f…
08-06 21:13:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	66	54¢	$36	0x1c0585…
08-06 21:03:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xfce94c…
08-06 15:53:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	40	70¢	$28	0x723258…
08-06 13:42:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xbad5fa…
08-06 12:34:59	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x65a637…
08-05 02:59:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x00f883…
08-05 02:07:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	165	84¢	$139	0x7478ed…
08-04 19:13:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	120	96¢	$115	0x298b16…
08-04 16:30:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0xf97979…
08-04 13:41:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	83	73¢	$61	0x77fbec…
08-04 13:40:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	17	73¢	$12	0xb5a57f…
08-03 18:02:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xe4629a…
08-03 13:17:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x2fd4c5…
08-03 13:14:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0xc5ec4e…
08-02 14:39:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	79	51¢	$40	0x0a3db4…
08-02 14:21:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x910144…
08-02 13:44:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	140	80¢	$112	0x928c0d…
08-02 04:18:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x1fad41…
08-02 03:50:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x4b5013…
08-02 03:49:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xacb130…
08-02 03:14:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x6a9205…
08-02 03:09:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	119	83¢	$99	0x1331ce…
08-02 03:04:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xdc3551…
08-02 03:03:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	79	47¢	$37	0x81dad8…
08-02 02:55:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	20	77¢	$16	0x3c4fb0…
08-02 02:48:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xf9f2ec…
08-02 02:48:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x941a58…
08-02 02:48:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	64	68¢	$43	0x680528…
08-02 02:23:42	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	80	81¢	$65	0xb46f7c…
08-02 02:20:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	60	75¢	$45	0x99967b…
08-02 02:20:08	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	60	79¢	$47	0xedba6d…
08-02 02:12:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	159	48¢	$77	0xb682c4…
08-02 02:10:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0xcd8e7a…
08-02 02:08:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	21	57¢	$12	0xd7ccfa…
08-02 02:08:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xb063c1…
08-02 02:06:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	5	87¢	$5	0xa07d5a…
08-02 02:06:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	39	87¢	$34	0xe40959…
08-02 02:06:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x1c675d…
08-02 01:00:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	50	49¢	$24	0x79d27b…
08-02 00:27:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	140	27¢	$38	0x66838d…
08-02 00:19:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0xa1667f…
08-01 23:51:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0xfe847f…
08-01 22:03:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	44	18¢	$8	0x2c690e…
08-01 22:03:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0x8e6a98…
08-01 21:44:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	60	82¢	$49	0x0a2c5a…
08-01 21:28:21	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	79	54¢	$43	0x1b9dcf…
08-01 16:22:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x7bdac1…
08-01 16:08:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xb9a631…
08-01 02:09:45	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xa74268…
08-01 02:03:05	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0xdcae69…
08-01 00:55:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x9664e9…
08-01 00:37:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0x10d634…
07-31 23:40:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	82	50¢	$41	0x08de8a…
07-31 23:15:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x24dabc…
07-31 23:12:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xa3ab15…
07-31 21:44:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	67	80¢	$54	0x58c8b5…
07-31 21:43:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x7b0d37…
07-31 21:40:36	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xad6bca…
07-31 21:24:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x87b5c2…
07-31 21:23:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	160	66¢	$106	0xd07857…
07-31 21:21:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0x242f85…
07-31 19:29:14	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	100	46¢	$46	0xdb00c1…
07-31 19:28:30	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	99	46¢	$46	0x8aa1d0…
07-31 19:28:27	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	1	46¢	$0	0x05a65e…
07-31 19:10:11	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x5319e8…
07-31 18:33:15	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	70	61¢	$42	0xa7b9eb…
07-31 16:17:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xdf979e…
07-31 15:07:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	75	14¢	$11	0x24f100…
07-31 15:01:30	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xfb19cc…
07-31 02:25:09	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	90	90¢	$81	0x1a89ed…
07-31 01:02:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	70	66¢	$46	0x0abccb…
07-31 00:11:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	125	30¢	$38	0x6d30af…
07-30 23:53:56	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	38	89¢	$34	0x83a434…
07-30 23:53:51	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	162	89¢	$144	0xe20684…
07-30 23:26:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	140	88¢	$123	0x9e8c81…
07-30 23:21:11	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x747287…
07-30 22:37:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	90	93¢	$84	0x3d5d10…
07-30 22:25:48	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	SELL	126	4¢	$5	0xd9e8ed…
07-30 22:25:41	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x9dc00e…
07-30 21:54:17	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x5037c6…
07-30 21:53:47	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	120	76¢	$91	0xaa87cd…
07-30 21:52:38	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0xa2067f…
07-30 21:19:08	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xa50563…
07-30 21:19:06	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	55	77¢	$43	0x47901f…
07-30 14:35:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	90	86¢	$77	0x76d8f7…
07-30 13:24:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	90	75¢	$68	0x5de5f6…
07-30 12:29:24	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	12	78¢	$10	0x6d3274…
07-30 12:29:23	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xbfe3cd…
07-30 12:29:23	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x23d981…