Ironclad-Alien — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

286

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 07-25 06:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

48% 100% +$8

Other

39% 100% +$9

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	6	$1.4K	1,400	0	+1,400	open	—	04-07 22:54
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$919	968	130	+838	open	—	06-02 22:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$577	400	220	+180	open	—	05-27 04:26
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$526	535	0	+535	No	+$9	04-20 18:39
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$496	500	0	+500	open	—	03-26 14:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$473	480	0	+480	open	—	06-29 05:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	11	$433	340	240	+100	open	—	05-24 23:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	11	$430	360	195	+165	open	—	06-15 20:04
will the us strike iran next 433	4	$396	200	200	+0	open	—	01-23 22:23
daniel negreanu 20260707143201179	2	$393	395	0	+395	open	—	07-13 22:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	5	$384	240	160	+80	open	—	05-22 17:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$350	340	40	+300	open	—	06-28 18:50
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	2	$312	320	0	+320	open	—	06-29 14:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$309	335	0	+335	open	—	02-28 20:49
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	1	$299	300	0	+300	open	—	05-16 22:22
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$298	300	0	+300	open	—	06-07 23:02
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$265	300	0	+300	open	—	07-25 04:58
will the us strike somalia next 656	3	$264	273	0	+273	open	—	01-23 22:36
nathaniel brown 20260609173253886	1	$245	250	0	+250	open	—	06-14 11:58
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	3	$241	100	158	-58	open	—	05-15 16:58
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	1	$235	240	0	+240	open	—	06-27 21:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$235	279	50	+229	open	—	06-14 23:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$223	260	100	+160	open	—	07-06 15:20
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	2	$212	220	0	+220	open	—	06-08 11:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$207	300	0	+300	open	—	05-31 18:42
brian hastings 20260707143201196	1	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-11 20:37
martin zamani 20260707143201198	1	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-10 00:58
greg raymer 20260707143201194	1	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-10 01:00
alex foxen 20260707143201192	1	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-11 20:35
michael mizrachi 20260707143201180	1	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	07-10 01:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 07:25:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	61	91¢	$56	0x571bd1…
07-25 06:56:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x08e71e…
07-25 06:19:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0xa3543c…
07-25 05:58:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0xc3a12c…
07-25 04:58:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x57ddf1…
07-25 02:59:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xd58d05…
07-24 21:09:07	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	70	93¢	$65	0x4062ef…
07-24 21:06:12	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 28 2026	Yes	BUY	49	77¢	$38	0x6b9be2…
07-24 20:27:00	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	130	91¢	$118	0x93e043…
07-24 20:24:24	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	77	95¢	$73	0x1bedf3…
07-24 16:53:33	freddy deeb 20260707142702028	No	BUY	75	99¢	$74	0x349e34…
07-23 00:21:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x460e3b…
07-22 10:16:15	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	87	77¢	$67	0x8d046d…
07-22 10:07:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x2ab6b5…
07-22 04:21:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	160	81¢	$130	0xd046d0…
07-16 12:24:43	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x8429f1…
07-15 14:19:52	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xa54762…
07-15 14:11:55	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	56	95¢	$53	0x2b16b6…
07-15 14:07:44	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x026843…
07-13 22:08:23	daniel negreanu 20260707143201179	No	BUY	280	100¢	$278	0xd40488…
07-11 20:37:14	brian hastings 20260707143201196	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x0d7f26…
07-11 20:35:55	alex foxen 20260707143201192	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x9736f1…
07-10 21:22:29	phil hellmuth 20260707143201182	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf42c12…
07-10 21:22:05	martin kabrhel 20260707143201181	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x2270cc…
07-10 21:21:52	chris moneymaker 20260707143201190	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x75d65c…
07-10 01:00:46	michael mizrachi 20260707143201180	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x7487af…
07-10 01:00:10	greg raymer 20260707143201194	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x4c48d5…
07-10 00:58:44	martin zamani 20260707143201198	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5af492…
07-10 00:58:22	phil hellmuth 20260707143201182	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xca88a1…
07-10 00:57:08	daniel negreanu 20260707143201179	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x3ea39a…
07-07 21:00:07	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	60	62¢	$37	0xfc636c…
07-07 20:08:31	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	15	62¢	$9	0xf90d7f…
07-06 20:47:04	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xe4a164…
07-06 15:20:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	160	86¢	$138	0xb6998e…
07-06 15:20:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xb6998e…
07-03 19:30:56	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xe5afd7…
07-02 13:48:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x601f79…
07-02 12:21:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0xa8fe69…
07-01 17:46:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0xf352bb…
07-01 15:08:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0x693b1a…
06-30 19:07:43	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	32	96¢	$30	0x7d5ac5…
06-29 14:04:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	98¢	$177	0x7ad4cb…
06-29 05:27:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x0c9423…
06-28 20:22:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0xbbc295…
06-28 19:03:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	94	81¢	$76	0x3f2089…
06-28 18:50:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x56487d…
06-28 18:50:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x7d46af…
06-28 17:05:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	97¢	$136	0x4c2183…
06-27 21:18:43	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	98¢	$235	0x78c630…
06-26 01:19:26	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0x5768a0…
06-25 15:04:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x856d29…
06-25 14:10:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	140	84¢	$118	0xe6edf8…
06-25 13:18:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x0d4ecf…
06-23 16:45:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xae9527…
06-21 15:12:10	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0xc35ddc…
06-17 03:17:37	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0x6c10ba…
06-17 03:00:39	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	45	95¢	$43	0xa4e5c8…
06-15 21:59:12	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x765d66…
06-15 20:04:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$191	0x65b89b…
06-15 08:05:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xe9f753…
06-14 23:53:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x6af130…
06-14 23:29:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	35	80¢	$28	0x748581…
06-14 23:01:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xbb852c…
06-14 22:56:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	35	80¢	$28	0x7bb2c3…
06-14 22:18:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x88eeb9…
06-14 22:15:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x98306e…
06-14 22:15:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xeca9a5…
06-14 22:11:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	66	89¢	$59	0xa9e4f0…
06-14 22:08:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0xdeeaa9…
06-14 22:08:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xe3760f…
06-14 21:38:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	35	68¢	$24	0x8e8dae…
06-14 11:58:15	nathaniel brown 20260609173253886	Yes	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x356e28…
06-14 11:57:54	florian wirtz 20260609173253885	Yes	BUY	135	99¢	$133	0xaa6e58…
06-14 11:57:40	jamal musiala 20260609173253878	Yes	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0xb1dff0…
06-14 11:57:31	jamal musiala 20260609173253878	Yes	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x2756e8…
06-13 16:46:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	30	35¢	$10	0xd3d29f…
06-13 13:37:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	Yes	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0xe8c415…
06-13 11:49:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x9839ed…
06-12 18:47:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	80	58¢	$46	0x525711…
06-12 12:45:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0xc46587…
06-12 03:46:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	28¢	$22	0x39f113…
06-11 21:27:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	119	96¢	$114	0x6bf0cc…
06-11 21:27:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x0e636d…
06-11 15:54:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xe79bb6…
06-11 15:29:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x7164ce…
06-09 15:29:22	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x84441a…
06-08 22:07:54	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x535f54…
06-08 22:06:46	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	61	95¢	$58	0x66740b…
06-08 11:43:34	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	120	97¢	$116	0x73c41c…
06-08 11:36:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xe24f02…
06-07 23:08:39	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x2ad5cb…
06-07 23:02:09	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x27f5f0…
06-07 22:56:36	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	88	91¢	$81	0x8c801b…
06-07 22:51:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0xc0a3e1…
06-07 22:50:42	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xb19bd1…
06-02 22:22:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0x8f5537…
06-02 21:05:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0xfbe28e…
06-01 15:07:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0xef80fc…
06-01 13:18:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	29¢	$23	0xa1792a…
06-01 12:30:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0x0f5d40…