Frayed-Vault — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$18

Unrealized P&L

+$101

Hit rate

98.8%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

626 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$92

$43.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$974

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 11-04 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Politics

40% 58% -$988

Crypto

25% 42% -$882

Other

21% 48% +$84

Sports

14% 43% +$836

Tech

0% 50% -$27

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+646	$560	96¢	$622	+$62	11-04 17:52
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$144	90¢	$179	+$35	09-28 14:25
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	+115	$105	98¢	$114	+$9	07-10 07:05
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+3,167	$18	1¢	$27	+$9	09-20 18:46
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-480	-$72	3¢	$-16	+$56	06-25 14:55
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+100	$11	8¢	$8	-$3	08-15 06:29
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+97	$48	4¢	$4	-$44	09-30 15:11
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	+50	$10	7¢	$4	-$6	07-31 09:35
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$16	2¢	$2	-$14	09-30 15:13
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	3¢	$0	-$2	09-30 14:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will solana dip to 60 in february 2026	35	$6.6K	9,283	8,183	+1,100	No	+$738	02-24 06:09
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	91	$3.9K	4,061	2,561	+1,500	No	+$510	05-29 11:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	17	$3.0K	1,746	1,746	+0	Yes	+$100	02-01 19:11
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	25	$2.9K	1,946	1,300	+646	open	—	11-04 17:52
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	11	$2.6K	1,729	1,729	+0	No	+$284	01-29 11:46
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$1.5K	1,012	1,012	+0	No	+$83	03-09 02:45
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$1.4K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$409	04-06 08:00
nothing ever happens khamenei	5	$1.3K	800	800	+0	No	-$12	02-17 17:17
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	26	$1.3K	3,808	0	+3,808	Yes	-$1,256	04-13 08:37
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$1.2K	3,230	3,030	+200	Yes	+$138	07-16 17:34
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	3	$962	718	718	+0	No	+$144	02-01 12:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$951	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$29	03-11 02:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$847	855	200	+655	Yes	-$531	02-27 21:23
russian strike on a nato member by march 31	5	$773	400	400	+0	No	+$5	03-01 11:24
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	6	$761	400	400	+0	No	+$8	02-27 21:23
nba mil okc 2026 02 12	28	$707	700	700	+0	Bucks	+$497	02-13 02:24
will solana dip to 70 in february 2026	4	$669	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$669	02-05 16:42
internet access restored in iran by friday 972	2	$589	686	0	+686	Yes	-$589	01-21 12:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$525	320	320	+0	open	—	08-05 13:02
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	14	$500	2,760	2,760	+0	No	-$58	03-04 15:10
will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	6	$492	300	300	+0	Yes	+$56	08-17 04:52
north korea missile launch by february 28 534	8	$388	395	169	+226	No	+$87	02-20 07:53
will there be 10 12 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$370	200	200	+0	Yes	+$22	01-26 18:31
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	13	$348	3,300	3,300	+0	No	-$322	03-28 14:00
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	2	$330	200	200	+0	Yes	-$6	02-16 18:09
will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	3	$304	156	156	+0	No	+$4	07-26 11:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$291	200	150	+50	Yes	+$32	07-28 12:01
will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	18	$256	4,750	0	+4,750	No	-$256	03-09 09:42
will iran strike al zour refinery by march 31	7	$243	456	456	+0	No	-$11	03-21 14:41
will iran strike mina al ahmadi refinery by march 31	6	$239	687	0	+687	Yes	+$447	03-14 13:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 17:52:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0xc292fc…
11-04 17:52:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	43	92¢	$40	0x53fdec…
11-04 17:52:01	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0x030a8f…
10-02 03:45:32	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x4ebecf…
10-01 06:28:23	will bitcoin reach 95k in october 2026	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x1b012b…
09-30 15:13:53	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x26c585…
09-30 15:13:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	65¢	$65	0xb079ab…
09-30 15:11:59	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	50¢	$48	0x3714df…
09-30 14:37:06	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xc2b8a1…
09-30 09:52:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0xb60b5d…
09-28 14:31:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	47	89¢	$42	0x2add9c…
09-28 14:25:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xe0d41a…
09-28 08:18:59	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x78a2b7…
09-25 16:35:29	will bitcoin dip to 70k in september 2026	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x7d70d7…
09-25 16:34:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x7df146…
09-22 01:00:00	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x66d52e…
09-21 14:40:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x3497c0…
09-21 10:42:12	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x743076…
09-20 18:46:02	Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	840	0¢	$4	0x3ee752…
09-20 16:19:09	Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$1	0x259be9…
09-11 09:41:07	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0xaded4a…
09-11 08:22:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x226225…
09-10 20:40:51	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x6ca34f…
09-08 01:40:22	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x464407…
09-06 04:54:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x1eab08…
09-06 04:52:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x9a8f07…
09-05 16:30:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xed3c04…
09-03 21:04:58	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xe831f2…
09-03 12:30:52	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x1c28b3…
09-01 13:02:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x5b4cd4…
08-30 14:40:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xfa9d88…
08-27 15:34:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in August?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xf0eb9d…
08-27 15:34:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xa507d2…
08-27 15:34:00	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0xfa4759…
08-25 13:45:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0xc9cc5b…
08-25 11:59:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x31d0dc…
08-25 11:59:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xbb37fb…
08-25 11:59:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x3bc929…
08-25 11:59:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x275692…
08-25 11:34:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xcb28d0…
08-25 08:44:58	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x1836dd…
08-24 14:21:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0xf3e893…
08-24 12:47:46	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x462e39…
08-23 04:39:18	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	21	83¢	$18	0x3247d4…
08-23 04:38:57	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	9	83¢	$8	0xebb720…
08-22 04:55:39	will bitcoin dip to 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xd67e43…
08-20 04:11:10	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xd0d51e…
08-19 05:54:30	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xea0e6d…
08-18 16:41:16	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x853333…
08-18 14:40:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x9c5f9f…
08-17 10:30:24	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x5fcb84…
08-17 10:21:46	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x7319c5…
08-17 04:52:46	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	SELL	25	76¢	$19	0x25bf91…
08-17 04:52:25	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	SELL	150	91¢	$136	0x6617ed…
08-15 11:08:48	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	SELL	150	92¢	$138	0xa984e4…
08-15 06:29:27	Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x223135…
08-15 06:27:21	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	SELL	25	76¢	$19	0x8ee65e…
08-14 16:02:24	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xca8340…
08-14 13:31:03	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	180	48¢	$86	0xb06acd…
08-14 08:14:22	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xf2234c…
08-13 17:53:21	Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x3d3d08…
08-13 17:34:19	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	150	7¢	$10	0x06b3ce…
08-13 06:57:22	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0x1c59c0…
08-13 06:04:31	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xc43946…
08-12 04:01:07	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x496dc9…
08-10 14:02:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x42858d…
08-10 09:22:12	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xfb4ad0…
08-10 06:39:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xb92b48…
08-10 06:39:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x2c89a5…
08-09 07:47:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xba8808…
08-07 09:26:37	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0xac91d1…
08-07 09:26:37	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x12ca0b…
08-06 09:50:53	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x99568e…
08-06 09:50:33	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6d2f16…
08-05 13:02:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	320	84¢	$269	0x911ff1…
08-05 13:01:06	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x5cb577…
08-04 06:21:23	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0xfe117f…
08-04 06:01:24	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x77bf3d…
08-04 05:58:56	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x082ab1…
08-04 05:45:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	56	90¢	$50	0x6ac22b…
08-04 04:47:32	will ethereum dip to 1500 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	70	12¢	$8	0x04089c…
08-04 02:57:44	will ethereum dip to 1500 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xe914a3…
08-04 02:52:20	will ethereum dip to 1500 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xb1bcac…
08-03 15:37:14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	85	96¢	$82	0x69528f…
08-03 14:59:51	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x143b02…
08-03 10:29:03	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x3dd6ac…
08-02 22:00:26	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	SELL	51	83¢	$42	0xac8390…
08-02 22:00:18	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x3f81f9…
08-02 16:49:54	Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x93bce2…
08-02 16:42:54	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xc650c8…
08-02 12:50:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x1a0f9b…
08-02 04:48:57	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x495c03…
08-01 09:30:09	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x2b4093…
07-31 22:10:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x86dc8c…
07-31 21:51:56	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x47ba25…
07-31 18:47:02	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x051827…
07-31 18:08:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x176654…
07-31 09:35:32	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x4f81be…
07-31 08:00:51	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x728bf7…
07-30 15:39:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x05a573…