Infamous-Risk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.1%

Resolved

Trades

3,191

lifetime

Volume

$2.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 08-11 05:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

65% 50% +$3

Other

27% 40% $-4

Sports

5% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	36	$66	80	80	+0	open	—	04-20 23:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	81	$36	50	50	+0	open	—	04-04 18:11
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	14	$33	22	22	+0	open	—	03-09 20:24
will iran close its airspace by february 28 2026	2	$31	26	26	+0	open	—	02-28 11:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	33	$29	59	59	+0	open	—	04-07 23:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	38	$26	27	27	+0	open	—	04-07 22:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	46	$26	28	28	+0	open	—	04-07 22:41
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	4	$24	24	24	+0	open	—	04-13 10:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$24	31	31	+0	open	—	04-20 09:42
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	11	$24	25	25	+0	open	—	04-21 22:17
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	3	$22	14	14	+0	open	—	04-10 17:21
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	41	$22	35	35	+0	open	—	04-23 16:53
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	5	$22	12	11	+1	open	—	03-16 20:03
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	55	$21	26	24	+2	open	—	08-10 14:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	30	$21	47	47	+0	open	—	04-28 16:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	4	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	04-13 11:57
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	11	$19	36	36	+0	open	—	02-27 17:43
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	3	$19	23	23	+0	open	—	03-01 15:50
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	3	$19	16	15	+1	open	—	04-02 16:52
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	9	$19	24	14	+10	open	—	04-07 21:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	26	$19	29	29	+0	open	—	03-27 04:38
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	9	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	02-27 12:52
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	17	$18	39	39	+0	open	—	08-09 14:17
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	21	$17	13	13	+0	open	—	04-07 22:57
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	18	$16	24	24	+0	open	—	04-13 10:13
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$15	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	04-25 07:02
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	6	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	03-23 19:48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$15	21	21	+0	open	—	03-04 13:59
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	31	$15	21	21	+0	open	—	07-07 19:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	69	$15	25	19	+6	open	—	06-17 02:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 09:47:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x725b84…
08-11 08:08:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xa25a77…
08-11 05:07:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x029e0f…
08-11 00:14:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x71338c…
08-10 14:38:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xffa6eb…
08-10 14:15:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x475494…
08-10 13:56:37	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x4dc777…
08-10 13:54:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x4e120a…
08-10 04:09:45	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xa8684d…
08-10 03:45:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x910eb8…
08-10 02:49:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xb0ca50…
08-10 01:01:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x422a7c…
08-09 23:20:45	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xaa41d0…
08-09 20:47:48	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x95c272…
08-09 17:56:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xf10825…
08-09 17:13:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x49784f…
08-09 17:03:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xc65080…
08-09 17:01:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x1cd88e…
08-09 15:31:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	2	81¢	$1	0x31fc57…
08-09 14:17:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x85f0fd…
08-09 14:13:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x7aeb9b…
08-09 14:13:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x2ce0cf…
08-09 13:09:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x2cccab…
08-09 12:14:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x81d1b1…
08-09 11:24:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x4382b8…
08-09 11:16:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x3e3ce8…
08-09 10:37:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x014e4f…
08-09 10:29:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x97fa63…
08-09 05:40:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf4659a…
08-09 04:01:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	9	17¢	$1	0x6c80a5…
08-08 22:54:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xbb3821…
08-08 20:15:37	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xea2d64…
08-08 19:48:33	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0xb5c3d6…
08-08 19:43:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	69¢	$0	0x8bfc69…
08-08 19:41:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x300d76…
08-08 19:20:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x2d9534…
08-08 19:16:25	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x93f5dc…
08-08 19:03:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x33d366…
08-08 19:03:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x1948f9…
08-08 18:22:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x956415…
08-08 18:21:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x06af7a…
08-08 18:10:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xb32a11…
08-08 16:05:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0xbb4863…
08-08 13:26:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x910d63…
08-08 11:36:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x38ce27…
08-08 11:25:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x82d785…
08-08 10:36:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xd25536…
08-08 10:29:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x5923d1…
08-08 05:28:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x047337…
08-08 04:37:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xa16c0b…
08-08 04:33:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x4a5d3a…
08-08 04:29:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x5eafe4…
08-08 03:35:06	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xe7c9a7…
08-08 03:29:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x1e3772…
08-08 03:15:51	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x2bd9a1…
08-08 00:31:28	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0xf18fc3…
08-07 20:49:43	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by december 31	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xa871ac…
08-07 20:04:34	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xf462c7…
08-07 19:51:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0xa9e39b…
08-07 19:08:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0xdcfffa…
08-07 19:08:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0xa0e3ee…
08-07 17:47:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x5f42ed…
08-07 16:33:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x69d74d…
08-07 14:26:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0xba93b6…
08-07 05:13:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xcf12e5…
08-07 00:24:06	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x4f6ee9…
08-06 11:58:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x67e72b…
08-06 03:13:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$1	0x5f131c…
08-06 02:31:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0x7ba22c…
08-05 15:19:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xfb890b…
08-05 15:04:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xcffb64…
08-05 15:03:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0xd134f2…
08-05 15:03:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0x8d32a0…
08-05 15:03:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0x6c55a7…
08-05 14:06:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x3b13df…
08-05 08:06:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x5cd5bd…
08-05 07:53:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x6959e1…
08-05 07:41:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xded50f…
08-05 06:18:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xf3ec68…
08-05 00:30:05	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	2	86¢	$1	0x70a40e…
08-05 00:10:33	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x8c8855…
08-04 22:41:39	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0x79a00a…
08-04 22:15:20	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0x06ed5f…
08-04 22:10:45	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xbd8e45…
08-04 19:32:00	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x8f312f…
08-04 19:32:00	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x33b464…
08-04 17:47:38	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x2799a8…
08-04 17:46:50	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x1f6422…
08-04 17:46:35	israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x1b05d8…
08-04 14:04:23	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x63d8ff…
08-04 14:03:45	foreign intervention in gaza by september 30	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x6ef930…
08-04 13:24:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$0	0x9e35ad…
08-04 13:23:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x3e6416…
08-04 13:22:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x5eb4a4…
08-04 13:22:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x92ca9a…
08-04 11:46:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xea58be…
08-04 11:46:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x1edb2b…
08-04 11:45:26	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x491d75…
08-04 11:36:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0xb31dd5…
08-04 11:36:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x506f68…