Turbulent-Notepad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$145

Hit rate

72.2%

Resolved

1,345

Trades

7,384

lifetime

Volume

$573.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$1.88K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-22 15:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 148 days

Categories

Other

55% 70% +$12,155

Tech

20% 84% +$324

Politics

13% 80% +$63

Sports

12% 65% +$293

Crypto

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-1,293	-$957	100¢	$-1289	-$332	05-14 17:28
Anduril IPO before 2027?	No	-313	-$279	98¢	$-308	-$29	05-04 12:39
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	-100	-$53	96¢	$-96	-$42	04-30 01:10
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	+73	$59	95¢	$69	+$9	07-31 19:05
Ramp IPO before 2027?	No	-50	-$45	98¢	$-49	-$4	06-27 08:53
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	-52	-$587	92¢	$-48	+$539	09-28 10:32
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+700	$210	2¢	$14	-$196	05-10 04:02
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+32	$18	14¢	$4	-$13	07-15 18:06
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+0	$77	4¢	$0	-$77	05-13 18:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	76	$28.5K	17,053	12,464	+4,589	No	+$81	03-04 17:35
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	57	$27.4K	14,829	13,949	+880	No	+$132	08-01 06:57
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	44	$21.6K	9,648	12,189	-2,542	Yes	-$15	06-12 12:33
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	111	$19.8K	21,363	22,932	-1,569	Yes	-$467	03-30 15:39
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	75	$16.4K	7,787	9,133	-1,346	No	+$15	05-08 16:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	71	$15.8K	7,258	8,858	-1,600	Yes	-$16	06-12 12:55
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	32	$15.7K	15,550	1,170	+14,380	No	+$498	03-01 14:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	29	$13.5K	3,768	10,935	-7,167	No	-$301	06-12 16:54
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	8	$13.1K	6,693	6,693	+0	No	+$101	06-18 15:19
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	28	$10.3K	5,216	5,216	+0	Yes	+$58	06-07 21:41
will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	13	$8.9K	4,519	4,519	+0	No	-$36	06-18 14:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	22	$7.2K	4,200	3,600	+600	Yes	+$49	06-12 16:04
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	40	$6.9K	6,160	3,800	+2,360	No	+$78	06-12 20:18
will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	26	$6.2K	3,140	3,140	+0	No	+$12	03-18 15:43
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	576	$6.2K	3,299	3,140	+159	Yes	+$12	02-18 11:45
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	25	$5.9K	2,964	3,164	-200	Yes	+$5	06-11 21:59
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	29	$5.5K	1,877	4,112	-2,235	Yes	-$204	08-01 06:34
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?	68	$5.1K	3,501	3,400	+101	Yes	-$86	06-12 15:53
will revoluts valuation hit low 77pt5b by july 31 20260630204859530	2	$5.0K	4,296	1,262	+3,034	No	+$512	07-08 16:45
AI bubble burst in 2026?	10	$4.9K	3,066	3,119	-52	open	—	09-28 10:32
Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks?	8	$4.7K	3,965	1,496	+2,469	No	+$658	07-12 13:50
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	36	$4.4K	8,967	443	+8,524	No	+$4,589	01-13 07:24
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	32	$4.3K	2,500	2,500	+0	Yes	+$62	06-12 16:16
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	68	$3.8K	1,940	1,940	+0	No	+$8	06-10 21:52
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	41	$3.8K	1,679	2,416	-737	Yes	-$9	03-12 16:28
barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	57	$3.4K	3,319	557	+2,763	No	+$178	04-15 07:51
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	173	$3.2K	2,800	2,700	+100	Yes	+$77	06-07 08:49
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	37	$3.2K	1,555	1,713	-159	No	+$19	05-01 05:45
will openais valuation hit low 600b by june 30	8	$3.2K	1,610	1,610	+0	No	+$9	06-23 20:14
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	8	$3.1K	2,000	1,200	+800	No	+$19	06-12 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 15:30:08	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?	No	SELL	525	97¢	$508	0xb38c18…
10-22 00:50:24	Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	BUY	160	45¢	$72	0xe9ac97…
10-19 04:21:42	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31?	No	SELL	70	98¢	$69	0x47b1a7…
09-28 10:32:24	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	2,416	90¢	$2,175	0xa879a0…
09-28 09:17:09	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xd8f739…
09-18 08:57:25	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x12924b…
09-17 14:20:09	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?	No	SELL	150	96¢	$144	0x16d9f3…
09-17 03:24:13	Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	SELL	861	91¢	$781	0x6305a9…
09-17 03:22:57	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31?	No	SELL	400	97¢	$389	0x4dfa9e…
09-17 02:40:52	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?	No	SELL	339	99¢	$335	0x72ed14…
08-26 03:49:52	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	167	100¢	$167	0xc374c1…
08-26 01:17:13	Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xe02999…
08-18 07:37:00	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	73¢	$133	0x70299f…
08-17 21:28:27	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$8	0xe17efb…
08-17 21:19:15	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x8f7df4…
08-10 12:42:34	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	32	42¢	$14	0xf6496a…
08-10 12:42:33	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	60	42¢	$25	0x6829be…
08-10 07:54:46	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	48	42¢	$20	0x75d1e4…
08-10 02:57:36	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0xd43a6e…
08-10 02:57:34	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xa49519…
08-01 06:57:21	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	2,495	98¢	$2,433	0xedcd09…
08-01 06:34:56	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	1,374	97¢	$1,337	0x3d72f4…
08-01 02:35:33	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xec62f9…
07-31 20:55:27	untitled market 1 20260730180943686	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xd3b166…
07-31 19:05:09	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	BUY	73	82¢	$59	0x0fe05a…
07-30 05:56:17	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x488641…
07-28 17:54:22	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	700	84¢	$587	0x914355…
07-28 07:03:49	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xa3151f…
07-26 20:15:33	amzn quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt82	No	BUY	411	4¢	$16	0xd26486…
07-25 09:53:43	will procter gamble say currency during earnings call 20260717164206372	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x23468e…
07-25 07:19:33	will procter gamble say portfolio during earnings call 20260717164206376	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x191d3f…
07-25 07:10:37	will procter gamble say supply during earnings call 20260717164206378	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xbac19b…
07-25 07:08:57	will procter gamble say innovation 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206367	Yes	BUY	76	94¢	$72	0xd7ede6…
07-25 07:08:49	will procter gamble say consumer 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206369	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x43eba7…
07-25 07:08:28	will procter gamble say consumer 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206369	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xa917e2…
07-25 07:08:04	will procter gamble say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206365	Yes	BUY	39	94¢	$36	0x2900d0…
07-24 21:51:46	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$977	0x817edc…
07-24 18:16:04	Will Daniel Nokovich finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	59	97¢	$58	0x7d3b17…
07-24 17:01:03	will databricks valuation hit high 180 by july 31 20260629184745124	No	BUY	569	79¢	$449	0x4762ab…
07-24 14:23:54	will procter gamble say insolvency during earnings call 20260717164206377	No	BUY	308	92¢	$283	0xab7e06…
07-24 14:17:12	will procter gamble say portfolio during earnings call 20260717164206376	Yes	BUY	62	98¢	$60	0x81a992…
07-24 14:16:43	will procter gamble say category during earnings call 20260717164206375	Yes	BUY	303	98¢	$299	0x81114e…
07-24 14:16:00	will procter gamble say collusion during earnings call 20260717164206373	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0xda8c87…
07-24 14:11:13	will procter gamble say profit 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206370	No	BUY	57	96¢	$54	0xa86ddb…
07-24 14:05:06	will procter gamble say income 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206364	No	BUY	140	96¢	$134	0xf30c82…
07-24 14:05:06	will procter gamble say income 10 times during earnings call 20260717164206364	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x6e8d5c…
07-24 03:29:25	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xead1ef…
07-24 03:25:34	bgc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 0pt34	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x1cd13a…
07-24 03:21:15	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x3f0749…
07-24 03:09:57	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x2ef96d…
07-24 03:01:13	bgc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 0pt34	No	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x0f387e…
07-24 02:24:46	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xd6dd35…
07-24 01:01:19	will american express say restaurant during earnings call 20260717164416063	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xdec660…
07-24 00:59:19	will verizon say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260713183952371	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0xd8fd75…
07-24 00:58:34	bgc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 0pt34	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x11b2c3…
07-24 00:21:12	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $420 in July?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x68eaf0…
07-23 23:55:30	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xca847e…
07-23 22:10:43	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xc9f86c…
07-23 21:13:18	will american express say fiscal 10 times during earnings call 20260717164416061	No	BUY	15	96¢	$15	0x876952…
07-23 20:40:07	will american express say fiscal 10 times during earnings call 20260717164416061	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xbdd1d0…
07-23 20:20:01	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe4e8bd…
07-23 19:56:13	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x18ec51…
07-23 19:51:19	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xc8467b…
07-23 19:49:16	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xf2defa…
07-23 19:48:54	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	88	73¢	$64	0x03ad45…
07-23 19:41:24	will american express say expense during earnings call 20260717164416070	Yes	BUY	155	99¢	$153	0x9388d0…
07-23 19:39:52	will american express say commercial during earnings call 20260717164416069	Yes	BUY	438	83¢	$365	0x2aa9a2…
07-23 19:35:36	will american express say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717164416060	Yes	BUY	346	99¢	$342	0xb6702f…
07-23 19:32:15	will verizon say america during earnings call 20260713183952384	Yes	BUY	41	57¢	$23	0x439add…
07-23 19:30:46	will verizon say churn during earnings call 20260713183952382	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x0eaeea…
07-23 19:30:22	will verizon say leverage during earnings call 20260713183952381	Yes	BUY	41	79¢	$32	0xfcf54d…
07-23 19:26:24	will verizon say fiber during earnings call 20260713183952374	Yes	BUY	224	98¢	$221	0x0de54f…
07-23 19:25:51	will verizon say growth 5 times during earnings call 20260713183952373	Yes	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0xca1b7a…
07-23 19:24:30	will verizon say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260713183952371	Yes	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0xd2540e…
07-23 18:47:07	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x65c0ba…
07-23 18:17:34	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xe4442e…
07-23 17:58:58	Will Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xfee799…
07-23 17:11:01	hum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 7	No	BUY	42	9¢	$4	0x2e8fde…
07-23 17:10:52	hum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 7	No	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x2ea37d…
07-23 16:57:27	hum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 7	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x2b0f5f…
07-23 16:43:06	will intel say income 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650070	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x90c934…
07-23 16:42:58	will intel say income 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650070	No	BUY	68	95¢	$65	0xa9fca1…
07-23 16:38:49	will intel say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650071	Yes	BUY	73	94¢	$69	0x78f37a…
07-23 16:23:01	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x08f088…
07-23 15:58:28	will intel say foundry during earnings call 20260717163650088	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x646bb9…
07-23 15:57:52	will intel say fiscal 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650072	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xd5d6ef…
07-23 12:39:21	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x8685b8…
07-23 12:22:15	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $420 in July?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x74ef1c…
07-23 11:52:07	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $420 in July?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb46cb9…
07-23 10:35:09	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x1117a0…
07-23 09:29:27	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x13b41e…
07-23 08:35:01	sbux quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 28 2026 0pt69	No	BUY	280	7¢	$20	0xc2a95e…
07-23 08:34:06	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x2fc87a…
07-23 08:32:51	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x7a1305…
07-23 07:35:06	will meta dip to 420 in july 2026	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x6cad75…
07-23 07:16:04	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	63¢	$17	0x958f26…
07-23 07:02:43	will intel say fiscal 10 times during earnings call 20260717163650072	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3e0972…
07-23 06:22:01	will intel say china during earnings call 20260717163650085	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x7ad01b…
07-23 06:19:42	will intel say china during earnings call 20260717163650085	No	BUY	28	78¢	$22	0x990990…
07-23 06:09:22	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	25¢	$248	0x64384c…