Turbulent-Notepad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$555

Unrealized P&L

+$59

Hit rate

97.8%

Resolved

Trades

5,839

lifetime

Volume

$431.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$658

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 00:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

53% 57% +$555

Tech

23% — —

Sports

14% 100% +$0

Politics

9% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 274 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	+461	$379	91¢	$419	+$40	06-15 15:43
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	+200	$151	84¢	$167	+$17	05-28 12:42
Ramp IPO before 2027?	No	-50	$-45	91¢	$-46	$-0	06-27 08:53
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	-100	$-23	15¢	$-15	+$8	06-01 16:16
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+32	$18	38¢	$12	$-6	07-15 18:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	76	$28.5K	17,053	12,464	+4,589	open	—	03-04 17:35
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	111	$19.8K	21,363	22,932	-1,569	open	—	03-30 15:39
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	28	$19.4K	8,948	10,589	-1,642	open	—	06-12 12:33
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	65	$15.8K	7,487	8,833	-1,346	No	+$14	03-09 05:51
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	71	$15.8K	7,258	8,858	-1,600	open	—	06-12 12:55
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	32	$15.7K	15,550	1,170	+14,380	open	—	03-01 14:26
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt5t by june 30	8	$13.1K	6,693	6,693	+0	open	—	06-18 15:19
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	21	$12.1K	2,668	10,412	-7,743	open	—	06-12 16:54
will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	10	$8.0K	3,567	4,519	-952	open	—	06-18 14:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	20	$6.8K	3,700	3,600	+100	open	—	06-12 16:04
will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	26	$6.2K	3,140	3,140	+0	open	—	03-18 15:43
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	576	$6.2K	3,299	3,140	+159	open	—	02-18 11:45
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	23	$5.5K	2,599	3,164	-565	open	—	06-11 21:59
will revoluts valuation hit low 77pt5b by july 31 20260630204859530	2	$5.0K	4,296	1,262	+3,034	open	—	07-08 16:45
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	36	$4.4K	8,967	443	+8,524	open	—	01-13 07:24
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	32	$4.3K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	06-12 16:16
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	41	$3.8K	1,679	2,416	-737	open	—	03-12 16:28
barstool after dark will the crew bowl a 300	57	$3.4K	3,319	557	+2,763	open	—	04-15 07:51
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	37	$3.2K	1,555	1,713	-159	open	—	05-01 05:45
will openais valuation hit low 600b by june 30	8	$3.2K	1,610	1,610	+0	open	—	06-23 20:14
will crude oil cl settle at 70 75 in march 528	34	$3.0K	1,531	1,531	+0	open	—	03-27 01:08
will crude oil cl hit low 55 by end of march 636 962 469 326 685 977 449 282 342 385 842	3	$2.8K	1,404	1,404	+0	open	—	03-24 15:16
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026?	60	$2.8K	5,963	6,563	-600	open	—	03-04 09:36
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	11	$2.8K	1,900	1,100	+800	open	—	06-12 17:05
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	6	$2.7K	1,800	1,000	+800	open	—	06-12 16:55
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	24	$2.6K	2,500	561	+1,939	open	—	01-25 20:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	40	$2.5K	2,295	2,300	-5	open	—	06-12 16:59
will neuralinks valuation hit low 32pt5b by june 30	4	$2.4K	2,486	0	+2,486	open	—	06-24 18:12
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt8t	14	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-12 14:10
will databricks valuation hit low 130b by december 31	1	$2.1K	2,478	0	+2,478	open	—	07-17 06:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 03:11:10	will tesla say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260713183304166	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x0c5121…
07-22 02:24:39	will tesla say texas during earnings call 20260713183304174	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6057fc…
07-22 01:28:42	will tesla say car 10 times during earnings call 20260713183304168	Yes	BUY	95	94¢	$90	0x9e0d0b…
07-22 01:22:52	will tesla say car 10 times during earnings call 20260713183304168	Yes	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xe608bd…
07-22 00:37:10	will tesla say america during earnings call 20260713183304173	Yes	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0xda0161…
07-21 21:36:48	will tesla say solar during earnings call 20260713183304177	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x21d5d4…
07-21 21:34:40	will tesla say quarter 10 times during earnings call 20260713183304166	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xd003e5…
07-21 21:34:25	will tesla say texas during earnings call 20260713183304174	Yes	BUY	24	80¢	$19	0x5d00c6…
07-21 08:14:00	will tesla say income 10 times during earnings call 20260713183304165	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xcc6745…
07-21 08:00:28	will general motors say emission during earnings call 20260713183530316	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x96e3a6…
07-21 05:16:40	will general motors say gmc during earnings call 20260713183530312	Yes	BUY	406	65¢	$264	0x134634…
07-21 05:11:03	will general motors say revenue 10 times during earnings call 20260713183530303	No	BUY	45	36¢	$16	0x872eb4…
07-19 19:24:33	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	103	80¢	$82	0x573252…
07-18 13:35:04	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740619	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xb070a9…
07-18 13:03:03	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740619	No	BUY	39	72¢	$28	0xef3e34…
07-18 13:00:12	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740619	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x4c721b…
07-18 11:50:40	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740618	No	BUY	1,404	42¢	$587	0x09b0f3…
07-18 11:35:58	will perplexitys valuation hit low 14 by july 31 20260629184740287	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x454a7d…
07-18 11:21:36	will the announcers say pressure 15 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956885	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x8ff949…
07-17 19:59:45	will the announcers say euro during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956894	Yes	BUY	53	85¢	$45	0xe83836…
07-17 19:24:24	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x5a9481…
07-17 19:14:40	will the announcers say appeal or appealed during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403327	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3b2523…
07-17 19:13:28	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xae744c…
07-17 18:57:16	will the announcers say appeal or appealed during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403327	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x980836…
07-17 18:56:34	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x7d84dd…
07-17 18:53:37	will the announcers say appeal or appealed during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403327	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x238ad0…
07-17 18:52:54	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x9f586b…
07-17 16:47:25	will the announcers say euro during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956894	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x9a1b5c…
07-17 14:56:13	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xd2b598…
07-17 12:25:12	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x738f94…
07-17 11:01:06	will the announcers say history during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956898	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x9f9120…
07-17 10:53:10	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	Yes	BUY	160	90¢	$144	0x9b5b83…
07-17 10:53:01	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403313	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x1cb949…
07-17 09:41:49	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xad9720…
07-17 06:18:43	will databricks valuation hit low 125b by december 31	No	BUY	507	89¢	$451	0x1e9857…
07-17 06:18:00	will databricks valuation hit low 130b by december 31	No	BUY	2,478	86¢	$2,129	0xa636f5…
07-17 06:15:16	will databricks valuation hit low 135b by december 31	No	BUY	716	77¢	$553	0x86fab1…
07-17 06:15:04	will databricks valuation hit low 140b by december 31	No	BUY	196	51¢	$101	0x1f9725…
07-17 06:14:18	will databricks valuation hit high 170b by december 31	Yes	BUY	492	94¢	$463	0x827fc1…
07-17 05:20:18	will the announcers say foul 12 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956886	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x94baee…
07-17 05:20:13	will the announcers say foul 12 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956886	Yes	BUY	180	85¢	$153	0xd46fda…
07-17 05:15:55	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x67abf5…
07-17 04:27:24	will the announcers say ticket during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403330	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x7db927…
07-17 04:16:58	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xf8b053…
07-17 04:00:07	will the announcers say record during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403312	No	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x844dca…
07-17 03:58:01	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x06bdf1…
07-17 03:45:58	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	No	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0xd5e319…
07-17 03:45:43	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956884	No	BUY	10	46¢	$4	0x635402…
07-17 02:51:13	will the announcers say tenure during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956889	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x3acc1e…
07-17 02:21:48	will the announcers say legacy during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956890	No	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x326f8b…
07-17 01:18:43	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	SELL	97	72¢	$70	0x514872…
07-17 01:07:17	will the announcers say gianni or infantino during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403311	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0x10e346…
07-17 01:06:28	will the announcers say zlatan or ibrahimovic during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403314	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x1ea7a8…
07-17 00:37:28	will the announcers say vertical or verticality during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956893	No	BUY	378	54¢	$203	0x5d27ad…
07-17 00:14:22	will the announcers say goat or greatest of all time during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956892	No	BUY	441	23¢	$100	0xaae9d9…
07-16 20:07:10	will netflix say invest investment investing 10 times during earnings call 20260709145309020	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x90b506…
07-16 19:04:53	will netflix say squid game during earnings call 20260709145309026	Yes	BUY	45	50¢	$22	0xe591fb…
07-16 18:32:13	will netflix say squid game during earnings call 20260709145309026	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x94a4d8…
07-16 18:02:01	wwd quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 27 2026 2pt42	No	BUY	160	15¢	$24	0x8c0517…
07-16 17:21:02	will netflix say subscriber during earnings call 20260709145309027	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf3bc84…
07-16 16:56:16	unp quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 23 2026 3pt16	No	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x85e416…
07-16 15:58:43	will netflix say squid game during earnings call 20260709145309026	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x84f7f1…
07-16 13:48:40	will netflix say content during earnings call 20260709145309032	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x32299f…
07-16 13:26:55	will united airlines say internet during earnings call 20260709145423416	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x3ede62…
07-16 13:23:29	will united airlines say canada during earnings call 20260709145423415	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x47aeac…
07-16 11:15:52	lmt quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 23 2026 7pt23	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x6e5f08…
07-16 02:30:14	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	269	8¢	$22	0x6e9e94…
07-16 02:27:49	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	27	8¢	$2	0x81e0a5…
07-16 00:33:10	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x215497…
07-15 23:23:07	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x36ed78…
07-15 21:55:11	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x9ab549…
07-15 21:32:01	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xbce154…
07-15 18:39:38	will the announcers say goal 75 times during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905962	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6bda6f…
07-15 18:06:14	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	55¢	$18	0xf35507…
07-15 18:05:34	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xd681d2…
07-15 17:17:46	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x744dd1…
07-15 17:07:37	will the announcers say turnover during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905967	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x9a5e9a…
07-15 15:45:53	tsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt88	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x8b2bf1…
07-15 13:41:59	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	42	56¢	$24	0xd38d7d…
07-15 13:35:02	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x0b4374…
07-15 13:34:13	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x140253…
07-15 13:10:31	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xb05a43…
07-15 13:02:02	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa49483…
07-15 13:01:49	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x659346…
07-15 13:01:49	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x624cb6…
07-15 13:01:46	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0xbb7b47…
07-15 11:38:37	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	28	56¢	$16	0x42b8b8…
07-15 11:04:37	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x729690…
07-15 10:40:04	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	26	56¢	$14	0x79cba5…
07-15 10:37:19	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x06c88b…
07-15 10:37:16	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0xeae8b3…
07-15 10:37:16	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xb885af…
07-15 10:37:16	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x0e1ecb…
07-15 10:25:17	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xa0a867…
07-15 10:22:52	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x306c1b…
07-15 10:22:49	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0xb96c8f…
07-15 10:22:49	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x529b54…
07-15 10:22:49	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x48aed0…
07-15 10:15:52	will the announcers say rhythm during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905972	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x4119ef…
07-15 10:11:22	will the announcers say nutmeg or nutmegs during the england vs argentina fifa world cup match 20260713142905979	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xb39bfd…