Adept-Nation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

52.1%

Resolved

Trades

114

lifetime

Volume

$9.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

$94

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 06-15 16:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

79% 50% +$7

Politics

19% — —

Sports

3% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No		+90	$87	98¢	$89	+$1	06-01 01:20
Will Alberta join the US?	Yes		+170	$7	3¢	$6	$-1	06-02 11:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$2.1K	1,054	1,054	+0	Yes	$-0	04-26 21:39
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$2.0K	1,014	1,014	+0	No	+$7	04-24 16:00
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$2.0K	1,017	1,017	+0	open	—	04-26 06:34
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	10	$283	477	387	+90	open	—	06-07 17:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	7	$272	4,061	4,061	+0	open	—	04-27 00:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$269	152	289	-137	open	—	05-30 11:21
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$259	1,113	1,113	+0	No	+$1	04-25 21:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	9	$208	305	305	+0	open	—	05-28 13:15
Will Alberta join the US?	4	$201	272	102	+170	open	—	06-05 08:50
Iran leadership change by June 30?	2	$195	101	101	+0	open	—	06-07 14:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	7	$188	518	518	+0	open	—	05-30 17:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$187	97	97	+0	open	—	05-17 00:53
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	5	$178	114	114	+0	open	—	06-06 00:44
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	3	$178	90	90	+0	open	—	06-03 05:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$177	91	91	+0	open	—	05-29 07:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$174	113	113	+0	open	—	06-14 02:29
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	3	$164	93	93	+0	open	—	06-08 22:19
Netanyahu out by June 30?	3	$159	81	81	+0	open	—	06-10 20:40
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$124	65	65	+0	open	—	06-10 11:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$121	187	143	+44	open	—	06-12 22:44
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$98	104	104	+0	open	—	06-03 22:43
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$90	1,870	1,870	+0	open	—	04-25 01:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$57	117	117	+0	open	—	06-09 12:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$36	145	145	+0	open	—	06-10 13:14
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$22	134	134	+0	open	—	06-12 09:36
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	2	$20	109	109	+0	open	—	06-18 04:58
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	3	$19	620	620	+0	open	—	04-24 20:24
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$18	246	246	+0	open	—	05-27 18:29
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	4	$17	297	297	+0	open	—	06-13 10:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	5	$15	295	295	+0	open	—	05-15 13:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 04:58:58	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	109	9¢	$10	0xb82c9d…
06-18 03:48:02	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	109	9¢	$10	0xf42afc…
06-15 16:38:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xe9edd4…
06-14 02:29:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	113	78¢	$88	0x83f90e…
06-13 22:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x9f5874…
06-13 22:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x45a8ed…
06-13 10:34:52	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	297	3¢	$9	0x484679…
06-13 09:32:00	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	129	3¢	$4	0x990691…
06-13 09:32:00	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0x76d765…
06-13 09:32:00	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	149	3¢	$4	0x2ccb7e…
06-12 22:44:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	38¢	$17	0xd36c05…
06-12 09:36:21	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	134	11¢	$14	0x121421…
06-12 07:53:24	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	134	6¢	$8	0x02efb8…
06-10 20:40:12	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x7b2abf…
06-10 20:40:12	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x02ccdb…
06-10 17:40:33	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	81	98¢	$80	0xb740e2…
06-10 13:14:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	145	12¢	$17	0xb131f1…
06-10 11:47:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	145	13¢	$19	0x6224e6…
06-10 11:40:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0x002fd7…
06-10 09:23:12	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	96¢	$62	0x89d8b1…
06-09 12:43:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	117	24¢	$28	0xb4078e…
06-09 09:55:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	117	25¢	$29	0x173482…
06-08 22:19:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	93	88¢	$82	0xe44c07…
06-08 20:54:39	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xdf6a46…
06-08 20:54:39	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	63	88¢	$55	0x8b87ed…
06-08 16:38:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	34¢	$49	0x5e3167…
06-08 15:17:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	39¢	$56	0xe8f323…
06-07 17:49:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	214	3¢	$6	0xf83313…
06-07 17:49:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	82	3¢	$2	0x7a5d9e…
06-07 16:04:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xb25b76…
06-07 16:04:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x835373…
06-07 16:04:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	128	3¢	$4	0x8061bd…
06-07 16:04:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	155	3¢	$5	0x11e817…
06-07 14:07:21	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	101	96¢	$97	0xd0546d…
06-07 12:12:30	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	101	96¢	$97	0x41be1a…
06-06 00:44:24	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xe5c893…
06-06 00:44:24	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x91c268…
06-06 00:44:22	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	60	78¢	$47	0xf450c8…
06-06 00:44:09	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x8c697f…
06-05 17:26:58	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	114	78¢	$89	0x2db5ee…
06-05 08:50:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	56	95¢	$53	0x4c8f18…
06-05 08:50:40	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	46	95¢	$44	0xb452fb…
06-05 07:13:48	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	102	95¢	$97	0x97dd50…
06-03 22:43:46	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	104	47¢	$49	0x726eb7…
06-03 21:16:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	104	47¢	$49	0x32da0e…
06-03 05:15:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0xacd427…
06-03 01:45:57	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0xc80729…
06-03 01:45:57	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x10f4b4…
06-02 11:16:52	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	170	4¢	$7	0x083e9b…
06-01 01:20:48	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x672c6a…
06-01 01:13:20	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x9e4fdc…
06-01 01:13:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xa0bedc…
05-31 20:31:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	2¢	$3	0xc87e7c…
05-31 20:31:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	188	2¢	$5	0xb29abf…
05-31 19:00:26	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	2¢	$3	0x9e441e…
05-31 19:00:25	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0x9807b7…
05-31 19:00:25	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	2¢	$3	0x3350dc…
05-31 04:41:52	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x9862cb…
05-30 17:07:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	351	12¢	$42	0x8b99da…
05-30 15:34:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	13¢	$21	0xb84a0b…
05-30 15:34:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x4a91f8…
05-30 11:21:05	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	152	60¢	$91	0xaebb23…
05-30 09:45:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	63	59¢	$37	0x22d8bb…
05-30 09:45:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	89	59¢	$53	0xe57759…
05-29 07:35:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xf6e9bd…
05-28 23:32:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	91	97¢	$88	0xfa3d0e…
05-28 13:15:00	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	94	95¢	$89	0x0a29a6…
05-28 09:07:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	93¢	$88	0x22ec8b…
05-28 03:13:05	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	137	64¢	$88	0x58a45d…
05-27 18:29:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	246	4¢	$9	0xb159a3…
05-27 16:53:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	246	3¢	$9	0xc94713…
05-27 15:21:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x78a548…
05-26 23:54:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	141	29¢	$41	0x55d8a9…
05-26 23:54:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	29¢	$8	0x17f150…
05-26 21:28:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	31¢	$50	0xa1d832…
05-26 21:28:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x06eee0…
05-26 10:49:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xdc7adf…
05-18 16:07:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xe468e0…
05-18 12:58:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x39c997…
05-18 11:53:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0x125f73…
05-18 11:53:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x46b77e…
05-18 11:53:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	4¢	$4	0x690f39…
05-17 00:53:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	97	96¢	$93	0xddf48b…
05-16 20:37:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	97	97¢	$94	0x79676e…
05-15 13:49:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	2¢	$3	0x6fbec4…
05-15 13:49:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	2¢	$5	0x1b5154…
05-15 11:38:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	2¢	$3	0x8e03a9…
05-15 11:38:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$1	0x9effa3…
05-15 11:38:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	2¢	$4	0x124108…
05-14 20:43:48	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	207	3¢	$6	0x868fb1…
05-14 19:00:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	2¢	$3	0xe106f4…
05-14 19:00:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x41a60b…
04-27 00:23:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,166	3¢	$71	0x210102…
04-27 00:14:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	177	3¢	$6	0x8a11d9…
04-27 00:14:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,014	3¢	$33	0x23a73d…
04-27 00:14:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	975	3¢	$32	0x121dd5…
04-26 21:39:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1,054	99¢	$1,039	0x740f67…
04-26 20:23:40	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$25	0xb5523f…
04-26 20:23:38	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0x498bae…
04-26 20:23:38	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	977	99¢	$963	0x00b698…