Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$7

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

3,181 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$32.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$20

3 positions

First seen

2026-06-23

last 10-28 16:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

69% 33% -$736

Politics

17% 31% -$113

Sports

7% 13% -$71

Tech

3% 29% -$11

Crypto

2% 30% -$27

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 289 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Yes	+20	$16	86¢	$17	+$1	08-08 03:22
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	No	+20	$12	15¢	$3	-$9	08-13 12:14
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$5	84¢	$0	-$5	09-04 10:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	10	$484	618	618	+0	No	+$6	10-18 18:23
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	14	$434	536	274	+262	No	+$3	09-03 14:45
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?	2	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	10-18 19:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$302	200	200	+0	open	—	10-24 20:32
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	4	$273	268	268	+0	No	+$20	10-25 22:10
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	15	$257	282	202	+80	No	-$5	09-03 05:17
will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1530 by december 31	4	$256	193	193	+0	Yes	-$14	08-15 21:36
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	15	$239	233	233	+0	open	—	08-28 14:16
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	6	$231	186	186	+0	open	—	10-28 09:39
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	5	$228	134	134	+0	open	—	09-06 04:27
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	9	$222	206	206	+0	Yes	+$0	10-18 13:48
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	20	$219	245	245	+0	open	—	09-02 12:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$218	155	155	+0	open	—	08-29 15:10
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	20	$218	220	220	+0	No	-$1	09-01 23:58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	4	$216	218	218	+0	No	+$12	10-24 23:05
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	21	$207	178	138	+40	open	—	08-31 17:23
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	6	$199	205	205	+0	open	—	09-06 23:59
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	2	$188	102	102	+0	open	—	08-31 10:41
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	23	$185	214	214	+0	Yes	-$12	09-02 19:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 17:33
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	8	$177	103	103	+0	open	—	09-10 12:01
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	10	$171	230	230	+0	open	—	09-04 10:27
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	2	$170	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 14:49
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	6	$170	143	143	+0	open	—	09-02 14:15
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	2	$169	208	208	+0	open	—	10-21 22:13
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	10	$159	159	159	+0	open	—	08-29 08:08
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	2	$155	100	99	+1	Yes	+$8	10-08 08:13
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?	7	$154	95	95	+0	Yes	-$2	09-02 19:40
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	7	$152	113	113	+0	open	—	08-15 08:01
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?	9	$149	249	249	+0	open	—	10-28 09:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:33:07	Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$0	0x6f6501…
10-28 16:28:19	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd33e92…
10-28 16:28:04	Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man?	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x9ce05d…
10-28 16:27:58	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	3	58¢	$1	0x451b7f…
10-28 16:27:52	Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0x2b190e…
10-28 16:27:44	Will it snow in Nashville, TN by November 30?	Yes	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x86a877…
10-28 09:53:25	Will Jan Hruška be the next Mayor of Liberec?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe7c652…
10-28 09:53:16	Daejon Love pleads guilty to federal crime by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x4b97ee…
10-28 09:53:07	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be 900,000 or more?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x88d8ff…
10-28 09:52:58	Will Ondřej Talíř be the next Mayor of České Budějovice?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x56976e…
10-28 09:52:50	Will Villarreal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x353ca8…
10-28 09:52:41	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x1c4625…
10-28 09:52:32	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0xa57c58…
10-28 09:52:23	Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x7753ac…
10-28 09:52:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xb73fa2…
10-28 09:52:05	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xd21faf…
10-28 09:51:58	Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	4¢	$4	0x0e87a3…
10-28 09:51:49	Will Chengdu Rongcheng be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xde01fa…
10-28 09:51:40	Will it snow in Boston, MA by November 30?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x78298c…
10-28 09:51:32	Will Viktor Lavička be the next Mayor of České Budějovice?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x0d2b96…
10-28 09:51:25	Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0xb3cbaf…
10-28 09:51:16	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-03 House election by 30% or more?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x42505c…
10-28 09:51:08	Will Bodø/Glimt reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4ad9ed…
10-28 09:51:02	Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xe7f467…
10-28 09:50:53	Will Puka Nacua finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x3798d6…
10-28 09:50:44	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0xaf43f6…
10-28 09:50:35	Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 30?	No	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x0c6e9f…
10-28 09:50:26	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0xa40896…
10-28 09:50:19	Will Jaguares be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x57a8ac…
10-28 09:50:10	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x7983cc…
10-28 09:50:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election by 15%-25%?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x9cc989…
10-28 09:49:53	Will it snow in Kansas City, MO by November 15?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xf989d2…
10-28 09:49:47	Will Tibor Batthyány be the next Mayor of Liberec?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x87081e…
10-28 09:49:38	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x1de092…
10-28 09:49:29	Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x27ca8d…
10-28 09:49:20	Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	SELL	55	0¢	$0	0xe63fbc…
10-28 09:49:11	Will Bayern Munich reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x80b386…
10-28 09:49:02	Will Rangers be relegated from the 2026-27 Scottish Premiership?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x5539a1…
10-28 09:48:55	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x0116fd…
10-28 09:48:46	Will James Redgrave win the next Latrobe mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0xa63aab…
10-28 09:48:37	Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x1336ad…
10-28 09:48:28	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	8¢	$2	0x9a7d28…
10-28 09:48:19	Will Cyprus win 2026-27 Nations League Group C2?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x0b4311…
10-28 09:48:11	Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 15?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xdc9fb4…
10-28 09:48:04	Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x053ba6…
10-28 09:47:55	Will JEF United Chiba be relegated from the 2026-27 Japan J. League?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xb534fd…
10-28 09:47:47	Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0xb97127…
10-28 09:47:40	Will the Democrats win Kent County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xf30376…
10-28 09:47:31	Will Leoš Janda be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xc46252…
10-28 09:47:23	Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	23	18¢	$4	0xc347d2…
10-28 09:47:17	Will Mačva be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x5d9def…
10-28 09:47:10	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0x3e688a…
10-28 09:47:01	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x90f909…
10-28 09:46:52	Will Martina Erbsová be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x5cd591…
10-28 09:46:44	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-18 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0xfa9145…
10-28 09:46:35	Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	No	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x236126…
10-28 09:46:26	Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by November 15?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xa6c82c…
10-28 09:46:20	Will the Republicans win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	19¢	$12	0x60e3dd…
10-28 09:46:11	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	5¢	$3	0x848434…
10-28 09:46:02	Will Aleš Boháč be the next Mayor of Ostrava?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x622bf6…
10-28 09:45:55	Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 15+ goals in the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0xc8d5eb…
10-28 09:45:46	Will it snow in Denver, CO by November 30?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x5249cd…
10-28 09:45:37	Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x464886…
10-28 09:45:29	Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x81e9bd…
10-28 09:45:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 12%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xef935f…
10-28 09:45:14	Will it snow in Chicago, IL by November 30?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xda50c4…
10-28 09:45:07	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x9e49b5…
10-28 09:44:58	Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 45+ goals in the 2026-27 season?	No	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x226744…
10-28 09:44:52	Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x068387…
10-28 09:44:43	Will VfB Stuttgart reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xe70f00…
10-28 09:44:34	Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x89b288…
10-28 09:44:25	Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x8e891c…
10-28 09:44:16	Will Sønderjyske be relegated from the 2026-27 Denmark Superliga?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x9ec6d3…
10-28 09:44:05	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x183dec…
10-28 09:43:56	Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?	No	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0x3d1260…
10-28 09:43:49	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xc03b5b…
10-28 09:43:41	Will Deportivo Moquegua be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xd312dd…
10-28 09:43:32	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?	No	SELL	70	81¢	$57	0x83cd18…
10-28 09:43:23	Will Ivana Lucáková Nesétová be the next Mayor of Ostrava?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x29201d…
10-28 09:43:14	Will Tencent have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xeb8d4c…
10-28 09:43:05	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x281c80…
10-28 09:42:56	Will Wuthering Waves win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x42949b…
10-28 09:42:49	Will Daniel Vondra be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe98edc…
10-28 09:42:40	Will it snow in Detroit, MI by November 30?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x8e828e…
10-28 09:42:31	Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xc9e610…
10-28 09:42:22	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?	No	SELL	17	63¢	$11	0x9afeef…
10-28 09:42:13	Will it snow in Minneapolis, MN by November 30?	No	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0xdcffd9…
10-28 09:42:05	Will it snow in Cincinnati, OH by November 30?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xb3da97…
10-28 09:41:58	Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xdd2975…
10-28 09:41:49	Will Democrats win the Ohio Governor election and Republicans win the Ohio Senate election?	Yes	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0xb01ac5…
10-28 09:41:41	Will Petr Netolický be the next Mayor of Pardubice?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x6c66ff…
10-28 09:41:31	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-05 House election by 35% or more?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xbbf2e2…
10-28 09:41:22	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0xb39d0a…
10-28 09:41:14	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xc09749…
10-28 09:41:08	Will it snow in Pittsburgh, PA by November 30?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x534d3a…
10-28 09:41:01	Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?	No	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0xacdbf1…
10-28 09:40:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-08 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xb5d38c…
10-28 09:40:43	Will Eyüpspor be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0xe43cc4…
10-28 09:40:34	Will Trey McBride finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receptions?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x0abf43…
10-28 09:40:25	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 0%-10%?	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x744bc3…