Afraid-Retrospect — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$980

Hit rate

59.6%

Resolved

587

Trades

5,175

lifetime

Volume

$215.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$3.60K

19 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 09:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 211 days

Categories

Politics

82% 43% +$18,325

Other

15% 26% -$2,754

Crypto

3% 7% -$2,628

Tech

0% 0% -$159

Sports

0% 0% -$45

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+1,400	$1,133	100¢	$1.4K	+$267	10-21 20:26
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+4,000	$520	14¢	$540	+$20	10-27 16:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+2,000	$580	16¢	$330	-$250	07-24 13:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+6,639	$775	4¢	$276	-$499	08-25 05:45
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+3,480	$253	8¢	$261	+$8	10-29 01:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	+2,000	$355	12¢	$230	-$125	09-05 19:15
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	+1,300	$120	11¢	$136	+$16	10-21 15:26
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,500	$165	8¢	$113	-$52	08-24 15:08
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	+1,200	$135	8¢	$102	-$33	09-01 14:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+800	$160	9¢	$72	-$88	07-04 21:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	+960	$101	4¢	$38	-$63	10-30 09:42
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	+200	$76	16¢	$31	-$45	08-20 03:35
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+750	$26	4¢	$30	+$5	10-17 23:34
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+900	$49	3¢	$27	-$22	10-05 23:20
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	+200	$12	4¢	$9	-$3	10-28 07:16
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Yes	+110	$14	8¢	$8	-$6	08-18 05:10
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	+150	$50	1¢	$2	-$49	10-25 02:02
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+400	$54	0¢	$0	-$53	10-20 01:21
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+36	$7	0¢	$0	-$7	09-13 09:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	55	$13.0K	23,693	21,682	+2,011	Yes	+$13,911	02-28 21:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	18	$8.2K	7,700	7,600	+100	No	+$6,711	05-25 23:35
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	34	$4.1K	5,902	3,354	+2,547	No	-$155	06-17 15:16
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	27	$3.8K	2,235	2,479	-243	Yes	+$713	03-22 07:54
will uae strike iran by march 31	64	$3.7K	14,205	1,300	+12,905	No	-$1,697	03-17 09:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	26	$3.5K	3,413	4,990	-1,577	No	+$1,638	05-22 21:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	24	$3.2K	3,603	2,203	+1,400	open	—	10-21 20:26
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	32	$3.0K	6,937	4,348	+2,589	No	-$605	01-28 19:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	21	$2.8K	2,588	2,577	+11	No	+$1,459	05-22 21:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	12	$2.5K	2,694	0	+2,694	No	+$196	03-14 12:10
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	33	$2.4K	7,584	0	+7,584	No	-$2,359	03-09 21:49
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	25	$2.2K	1,760	2,316	-556	Yes	+$238	02-28 10:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	10	$2.1K	2,040	2,040	+0	No	+$1,856	05-25 23:33
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	57	$2.1K	10,837	2,709	+8,127	No	+$549	04-15 22:10
will israel strike lebanon on january 6 2026	13	$2.1K	1,205	1,013	+192	Yes	+$37	01-06 06:33
will israel or the us target tehran 812	26	$2.1K	2,312	2,300	+12	Yes	+$1,599	02-28 11:10
iran leadership change by march 31	51	$2.1K	9,900	0	+9,900	No	-$2,055	03-29 17:47
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	17	$2.0K	2,922	2,185	+737	Yes	+$1,476	03-01 04:39
us downs another iranian drone by february 28	28	$2.0K	2,896	2,487	+409	Yes	+$1,707	02-28 12:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	56	$1.8K	7,980	6,995	+985	No	+$38	05-20 15:35
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	16	$1.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$1,284	02-28 07:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$1.7K	1,940	1,940	+0	Yes	+$1,322	04-07 23:16
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	19	$1.7K	1,843	1,843	+0	Yes	+$1,121	06-17 16:26
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	3	$1.6K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	+$1,523	08-30 19:24
will the us next strike iran on january 14 2026 et 369	97	$1.6K	5,359	2,620	+2,740	No	+$319	01-15 01:28
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	52	$1.5K	3,554	542	+3,013	No	-$1,116	03-22 07:09
Iran leadership change by March 13?	50	$1.5K	28,132	300	+27,832	No	-$1,462	03-15 16:44
will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	21	$1.5K	1,696	1,573	+124	Yes	+$812	06-17 16:35
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	51	$1.5K	16,456	5,926	+10,530	No	-$802	01-17 10:21
will israel strike gaza on february 9 2026	33	$1.4K	1,380	1,201	+179	Yes	+$500	02-09 19:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:42:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	954	10¢	$100	0x648bc4…
10-30 09:32:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x59319d…
10-29 01:50:37	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	980	8¢	$78	0xc2f372…
10-28 20:03:17	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,980	10¢	$193	0x8e2ba4…
10-28 08:57:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	129	74¢	$96	0x53308c…
10-28 08:54:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	16	74¢	$12	0x946604…
10-28 07:16:17	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xb6e716…
10-28 07:06:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xed999a…
10-28 07:06:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x452a02…
10-28 07:06:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x3d8167…
10-28 07:06:05	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x3804ef…
10-28 06:34:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	213	64¢	$137	0xcc4f3c…
10-28 06:33:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0xede2b7…
10-27 19:58:02	Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0x9e4e15…
10-27 19:53:00	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	0	32¢	$0	0xdb40eb…
10-27 19:53:00	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x2a8577…
10-27 19:53:00	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	83	32¢	$27	0x264dd9…
10-27 19:19:24	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x0dacca…
10-27 16:50:18	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	733	13¢	$95	0x3f37d4…
10-27 16:39:09	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x0f4b29…
10-27 16:19:17	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xb03237…
10-27 15:26:39	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	226	13¢	$29	0x97f748…
10-27 14:27:50	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x5b61aa…
10-27 14:27:30	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x6bb87a…
10-27 13:58:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x3616ce…
10-27 13:57:35	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0x615b9a…
10-27 13:41:47	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x479f53…
10-27 11:32:45	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x5ffb78…
10-27 08:35:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0xdfc616…
10-27 08:35:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0x0027fe…
10-27 08:35:23	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x0483dc…
10-27 08:33:03	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0xeae912…
10-27 08:33:03	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	13¢	$0	0xdefed9…
10-27 08:33:02	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x449d9e…
10-27 05:32:02	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0xaa8b92…
10-26 21:20:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	29	44¢	$13	0x068c36…
10-26 20:59:30	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	221	44¢	$98	0x0e7d53…
10-25 18:56:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	306	13¢	$40	0x949252…
10-25 17:43:51	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	308	13¢	$40	0x04abc8…
10-25 11:53:39	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x550273…
10-25 07:16:45	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xa164ce…
10-25 02:02:23	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	150	34¢	$50	0xd11aae…
10-23 16:01:53	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	44	92¢	$41	0x3ce864…
10-23 14:47:59	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	56	92¢	$51	0x43cace…
10-23 11:33:17	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2,500	7¢	$175	0x297edc…
10-22 08:49:48	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0xfc42ee…
10-21 21:59:17	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	290	90¢	$261	0xd5997e…
10-21 20:26:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	400	82¢	$328	0x9f4389…
10-21 19:24:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	375	6¢	$22	0xb8fed8…
10-21 19:09:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x4ebc0d…
10-21 19:00:41	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	700	9¢	$63	0x345c10…
10-21 18:54:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	250	7¢	$17	0xeef23a…
10-21 18:50:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	520	9¢	$49	0xc5829d…
10-21 18:50:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xff60e9…
10-21 18:50:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xe68669…
10-21 18:50:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x2df7fe…
10-21 18:50:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	468	9¢	$44	0x44568b…
10-21 17:23:27	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	13¢	$260	0x8b612f…
10-21 15:26:33	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	93	8¢	$7	0xd1a050…
10-21 15:12:54	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0xda5f1a…
10-21 14:32:38	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	110	8¢	$9	0x3e2c12…
10-21 09:24:09	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	66	8¢	$5	0x843429…
10-20 19:15:23	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,600	9¢	$144	0x92c90f…
10-20 01:21:42	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x34475b…
10-20 01:10:23	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0xa969a9…
10-19 23:35:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	14¢	$4	0xcb653c…
10-19 23:35:41	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	13¢	$9	0x397046…
10-19 20:23:06	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xfef69a…
10-19 10:10:03	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xc80c60…
10-17 23:34:18	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	743	3¢	$25	0xe1152b…
10-17 21:35:33	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x5a7416…
10-14 14:51:36	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	112	2¢	$2	0x8092d1…
10-14 14:45:31	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	81	2¢	$1	0xae2ceb…
10-14 13:36:17	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0x46210d…
10-14 13:19:39	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	92	2¢	$1	0x62cc01…
10-14 12:59:35	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xdccf19…
10-14 07:13:17	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x856a2b…
10-14 06:44:46	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x302cc7…
10-14 05:45:37	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0x1f516d…
10-14 01:33:47	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,400	2¢	$28	0x2d9662…
10-12 00:48:02	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,940	2¢	$39	0x833b93…
10-12 00:31:24	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x281798…
10-11 13:58:54	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	113	7¢	$8	0x5830b5…
10-10 18:04:10	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x0f1926…
10-10 18:03:52	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x2a181f…
10-10 18:03:39	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	119	7¢	$8	0x177146…
10-10 18:03:22	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	360	7¢	$25	0x82b777…
10-09 03:18:15	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$106	0x7ac729…
10-09 01:55:02	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	21¢	$18	0xc7438d…
10-09 01:55:00	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	21¢	$24	0xc1ee8d…
10-09 01:54:30	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	23¢	$24	0xacaa00…
10-09 01:53:48	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xddda8b…
10-09 01:43:24	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	13¢	$52	0x7ec9c7…
10-09 01:43:00	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	16¢	$11	0xf7270c…
10-09 00:16:33	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xb35dab…
10-09 00:16:12	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	20¢	$22	0x6bff4a…
10-09 00:12:17	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xc767ac…
10-08 17:30:14	Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	29¢	$44	0xbebf14…
10-08 15:54:06	Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	24¢	$49	0x2cdb45…
10-07 22:55:55	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	6¢	$12	0x95126b…