Capital-Dependent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$974

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-11 21:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

69% 67% +$2

Other

24% 0% $-5

Crypto

6% 67% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No		-11	$-11	96¢	$-11	$-0	06-11 21:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	5	$554	298	298	+0	open	—	04-29 16:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$55	65	0	+65	open	—	05-04 11:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	1	$50	66	0	+66	open	—	05-04 11:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	04-29 22:00
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-07 11:36
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	05-05 05:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	2	$15	10,007	0	+10,007	open	—	04-29 18:45
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	4	$13	13	8	+5	open	—	05-06 09:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 11:50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	05-31 15:34
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$12	12	12	+0	open	—	05-05 19:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	05-13 10:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-30 04:43
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$11	204	0	+204	open	—	04-30 12:11
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	06-11 21:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	06-01 00:10
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	04-30 12:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$9	6	6	+0	No	+$1	05-05 23:24
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	05-17 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-29 20:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$5	9	9	+0	open	—	04-29 20:13
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	3	$5	8	8	+0	open	—	05-16 22:43
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	3	$5	4,154	0	+4,154	Yes	$-5	05-04 18:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-06 11:55
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$5	22	0	+22	open	—	05-01 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	04-29 20:05
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-30 18:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-03 09:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	04-29 20:00
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$4	77	77	+0	open	—	05-17 17:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 21:27:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x0e636d…
06-05 21:42:10	will starmer say mrpt speaker 30 times during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137133	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x535ff1…
06-05 21:32:57	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xcdc782…
06-05 21:32:19	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x948201…
06-05 21:32:10	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x697569…
06-05 21:31:54	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6ff678…
06-05 21:25:45	japan declassifies new ufo files in 2026	No	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x4bf7e0…
06-01 00:10:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x36d863…
05-31 15:34:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x33233e…
05-31 14:01:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xe47220…
05-30 18:47:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9a0442…
05-30 18:43:53	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x1f82ff…
05-17 23:36:50	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xdb466a…
05-17 21:06:24	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x045bb5…
05-17 17:38:32	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	77	4¢	$3	0x575372…
05-16 22:43:55	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	SELL	8	45¢	$3	0xa4e6db…
05-16 14:33:48	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x4943af…
05-13 20:30:38	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb480e2…
05-13 20:29:56	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x422285…
05-13 20:29:49	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd7a5c1…
05-13 20:29:37	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3c25a0…
05-13 20:29:30	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x422de7…
05-13 18:42:43	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x0406bd…
05-13 10:33:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x0bfa2e…
05-11 06:07:46	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x662c03…
05-11 01:23:25	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xf14ddb…
05-07 11:36:34	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xe96ace…
05-06 11:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3524a6…
05-06 11:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xa69190…
05-06 11:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x13d96d…
05-06 11:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xc26b3d…
05-06 10:06:10	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x27c818…
05-06 09:24:42	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xe73b3c…
05-05 23:24:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xd16fdf…
05-05 20:39:04	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x17a1d5…
05-05 20:35:14	Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x535ea2…
05-05 20:33:50	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x48d44e…
05-05 20:33:10	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2c9325…
05-05 20:29:20	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x5e1648…
05-05 20:24:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc67885…
05-05 20:23:32	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xaa61f6…
05-05 20:02:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa4fc5e…
05-05 19:52:12	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x1597fe…
05-05 19:49:08	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x4b725a…
05-05 16:59:04	Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$2	0x26a36f…
05-05 15:44:52	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xbcfc01…
05-05 15:41:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x868376…
05-05 15:41:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xae809b…
05-05 05:02:06	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0xa65ccc…
05-04 18:07:20	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xdc588c…
05-04 15:51:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xa6ffb7…
05-04 14:43:52	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6bd29f…
05-04 11:37:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xc51480…
05-04 11:37:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x9b2c96…
05-04 08:45:36	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x2bd9a6…
05-04 08:45:16	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x5292d8…
05-03 09:27:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd2e815…
05-03 09:27:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4b177e…
05-03 09:27:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x94e92f…
05-02 06:59:26	Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf4b8c9…
05-02 06:59:16	Will Donald Trump dance on May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xff70d1…
05-01 20:11:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x831b3a…
05-01 20:09:00	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	154	1¢	$1	0x34c50c…
05-01 19:20:50	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x43470a…
05-01 19:20:22	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xd37e3a…
04-30 12:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x59b170…
04-30 12:14:10	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x20d337…
04-30 12:11:44	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	6¢	$10	0x57d456…
04-30 08:24:56	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xe2b50e…
04-30 04:43:46	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x28389c…
04-29 22:00:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x8ac8e0…
04-29 21:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3a2200…
04-29 20:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x2f00a0…
04-29 20:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x04264f…
04-29 20:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xd5520c…
04-29 20:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x5d4455…
04-29 20:05:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x5062a2…
04-29 20:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xecc9f1…
04-29 19:45:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7a07b0…
04-29 19:36:44	Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x1f40a2…
04-29 19:34:56	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x63905c…
04-29 18:45:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xfed458…
04-29 18:30:32	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	No	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x0ae702…
04-29 18:30:06	Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xea579a…
04-29 18:29:48	Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0faa00…
04-29 18:29:32	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x682f4a…
04-29 18:27:50	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x4ac534…
04-29 18:27:26	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x61ed34…
04-29 18:15:08	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x835e22…
04-29 16:48:50	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	SELL	149	96¢	$144	0x8e0624…
04-29 15:37:54	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	SELL	149	96¢	$142	0x52f576…
04-29 06:22:18	Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x5d7150…
04-29 06:20:10	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xae3aac…
04-29 06:15:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xd8b2f6…
04-28 21:40:08	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x134485…
04-27 08:52:32	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x6fb269…
04-27 08:51:50	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	48	89¢	$43	0xdd028d…
04-27 08:51:10	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x7b16ad…