Capital-Dependent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$145

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$1.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 08-17 18:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Politics

60% 49% -$25

Other

31% 48% -$107

Crypto

5% 46% -$19

Sports

2% 60% +$2

Tech

1% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		+19	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	05-17 21:18
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes		+3	$1	8¢	$0	$0	05-18 12:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	5	$554	298	298	+0	Yes	+$19	04-29 16:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$55	65	0	+65	No	-$55	05-04 11:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	1	$50	66	0	+66	No	-$50	05-04 11:37
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	2	$30	17	17	+0	England	+$4	07-18 22:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$23	20	20	+0	Yes	+$3	04-29 22:00
will russia target kyiv by july 31 2026 20260727233830631	2	$22	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	07-29 22:11
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	06-11 21:27
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	05-07 11:36
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	08-17 18:34
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$19	80	13	+67	Yes	-$9	06-08 19:48
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$18	12	12	+0	Yes	-$2	05-05 05:02
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$16	9	9	+0	No	+$0	05-18 22:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	2	$15	10,007	0	+10,007	Yes	-$15	04-29 18:45
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	4	$13	13	8	+5	Yes	-$1	05-06 09:24
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$13	25	25	+0	Yes	+$3	05-23 23:13
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	2	$12	13	13	+0	No	+$2	05-28 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 11:50
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	Yes	+$0	05-31 15:34
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$12	1,014	0	+1,014	No	-$12	06-15 03:11
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$12	12	12	+0	No	+$10	05-05 19:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$11	9	9	+0	No	+$1	05-13 10:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?	2	$11	7	7	+0	No	+$0	04-30 04:43
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$11	30	15	+15	No	+$1	07-11 23:11
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$11	204	0	+204	No	-$11	04-30 12:11
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	05-31 05:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$1	06-01 00:10
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	1	$10	22	0	+22	No	-$10	04-30 12:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$9	6	6	+0	No	+$1	05-05 23:24
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	2	$7	6	6	+0	No	+$1	05-17 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	2	$6	5	5	+0	Up	+$2	04-29 20:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 18:34:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xda1f41…
07-29 22:11:38	will russia target kyiv by july 31 2026 20260727233830631	Yes	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x8e3ebb…
07-28 14:39:01	will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 20260727233336449	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x6654bd…
07-28 14:37:19	will russia target kyiv by july 31 2026 20260727233830631	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x5541e8…
07-18 22:54:39	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xa2985d…
07-18 21:35:01	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	17	74¢	$13	0xa06fe5…
07-15 20:53:08	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0x03ae79…
07-13 10:45:01	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x33d6c8…
07-13 10:43:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0xcbca73…
07-13 10:34:25	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xa047f6…
07-11 23:11:19	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xc55df2…
07-08 08:45:29	Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6688e9…
07-06 21:05:22	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xdcf5c9…
06-15 03:11:06	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$11	0x6b60ed…
06-15 03:08:03	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0x3d0e4d…
06-11 21:27:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x0e636d…
06-09 17:25:31	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb9f6e9…
06-08 19:48:52	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x83a438…
06-05 21:42:10	will starmer say mrpt speaker 30 times during the next prime ministers questions event 20260604160137133	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x535ff1…
06-05 21:32:57	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 24 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xcdc782…
06-05 21:32:19	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x948201…
06-05 21:32:10	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x697569…
06-05 21:31:54	will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6ff678…
06-05 21:25:45	japan declassifies new ufo files in 2026	No	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x4bf7e0…
06-05 21:25:33	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0x9863b6…
06-03 09:59:37	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x6fe5a2…
06-01 00:10:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x36d863…
05-31 15:34:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x33233e…
05-31 14:01:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xe47220…
05-31 05:20:51	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb4ef41…
05-30 18:47:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9a0442…
05-30 18:43:53	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x1f82ff…
05-28 18:43:48	Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	Yes	SELL	13	57¢	$7	0xfcd7f1…
05-26 20:48:20	Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x7f82d0…
05-23 23:13:40	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0x006025…
05-19 05:48:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xdbd02d…
05-18 22:13:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$8	0xe9310c…
05-18 12:18:30	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x491d64…
05-18 12:15:14	Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xfb0ed0…
05-17 23:36:50	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0xdb466a…
05-17 21:18:42	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0xdcf9bf…
05-17 21:07:46	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xf9de4c…
05-17 21:06:24	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x045bb5…
05-17 17:38:32	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	77	4¢	$3	0x575372…
05-16 22:43:55	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	SELL	8	45¢	$3	0xa4e6db…
05-16 14:33:48	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x4943af…
05-13 20:30:38	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb480e2…
05-13 20:29:56	Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x422285…
05-13 20:29:49	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xd7a5c1…
05-13 20:29:37	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3c25a0…
05-13 20:29:30	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x422de7…
05-13 18:42:43	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x0406bd…
05-13 10:33:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x0bfa2e…
05-11 06:07:46	Will Trump say "Hantavirus" this week?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x662c03…
05-11 01:23:25	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xf14ddb…
05-08 21:19:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x479d19…
05-08 21:11:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x26f067…
05-07 11:36:34	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xe96ace…
05-06 11:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3524a6…
05-06 11:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	75¢	$7	0xa69190…
05-06 11:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x13d96d…
05-06 11:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xc26b3d…
05-06 10:06:10	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x27c818…
05-06 09:24:42	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0xe73b3c…
05-05 23:24:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xd16fdf…
05-05 20:39:04	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x17a1d5…
05-05 20:35:14	Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x535ea2…
05-05 20:33:50	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x48d44e…
05-05 20:33:10	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x2c9325…
05-05 20:29:20	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x5e1648…
05-05 20:24:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc67885…
05-05 20:23:32	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xaa61f6…
05-05 20:02:44	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa4fc5e…
05-05 19:52:12	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x1597fe…
05-05 19:49:08	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x4b725a…
05-05 16:59:04	Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$2	0x26a36f…
05-05 15:47:42	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xd76421…
05-05 15:45:54	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe4a7ca…
05-05 15:44:52	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xbcfc01…
05-05 15:41:24	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x868376…
05-05 15:41:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xae809b…
05-05 05:02:06	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0xa65ccc…
05-04 18:07:20	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xdc588c…
05-04 18:06:38	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xd91a0f…
05-04 15:51:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xa6ffb7…
05-04 14:43:52	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6bd29f…
05-04 11:37:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xc51480…
05-04 11:37:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x9b2c96…
05-04 08:45:36	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x2bd9a6…
05-04 08:45:16	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x5292d8…
05-03 09:27:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd2e815…
05-03 09:27:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4b177e…
05-03 09:27:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x94e92f…
05-02 06:59:26	Will Donald Trump dance on May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf4b8c9…
05-02 06:59:16	Will Donald Trump dance on May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xff70d1…
05-02 06:55:54	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x4a7afb…
05-02 06:55:42	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xe87ce7…
05-02 06:55:10	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x12530b…
05-01 20:11:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x831b3a…
05-01 20:09:00	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	154	1¢	$1	0x34c50c…