Huge-Refuge — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$509

Unrealized P&L

+$68

Hit rate

75.1%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

786

9,609 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$30.7K

$417.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$1.63K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 23:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 213 days

Categories

Politics

71% 60% +$11,077

Other

24% 34% +$6,133

Sports

4% 55% +$1,014

Tech

0% 100% +$37

Crypto

0% 42% -$177

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 129 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	+530	$454	99¢	$527	+$73	10-27 22:49
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+740	$329	50¢	$366	+$37	10-27 09:37
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+276	$29	98¢	$272	+$243	10-28 23:54
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Yes	+1,278	$238	10¢	$128	-$110	10-14 22:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+200	$71	36¢	$73	+$2	10-27 22:42
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+1,303	$245	4¢	$59	-$186	10-16 17:41
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	+91	-$31	55¢	$50	+$81	10-28 22:42
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	-900	-$146	5¢	$-47	+$99	07-19 04:57
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+559	$14	8¢	$47	+$33	10-16 17:45
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+27	$26	68¢	$18	-$8	10-27 23:26
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+500	-$1	4¢	$18	+$18	10-27 19:27
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	+651	$284	2¢	$16	-$268	10-27 23:40
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+10	$3	36¢	$4	+$0	10-16 18:48
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	30¢	$3	+$0	10-16 18:49
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+2,500	$13	0¢	$2	-$10	10-27 19:30
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	+5	$2	24¢	$1	$0	10-16 18:49
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+0	-$7	88¢	$0	+$7	06-06 15:17
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	-$59	2¢	$0	+$59	10-26 17:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran strike on israel by february 28	73	$9.2K	7,240	7,564	-324	Yes	+$67	02-28 22:48
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	26	$7.6K	5,123	5,084	+39	Yes	+$140	03-02 00:51
will israel strike lebanon on march 3 2026	21	$6.9K	4,009	3,138	+871	Yes	+$126	03-03 01:51
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	196	$6.5K	22,632	22,132	+500	open	—	10-27 19:27
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	76	$6.4K	5,716	5,716	+0	No	-$111	06-14 19:11
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	26	$5.9K	16,592	16,592	+0	No	+$558	07-09 21:33
will israel strike gaza on march 7 2026	8	$5.5K	3,146	3,146	+0	Yes	+$726	03-07 18:56
will israel strike gaza on february 14 2026	31	$5.5K	3,191	3,191	+0	Yes	+$615	02-14 19:29
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	21	$5.4K	2,903	2,903	+0	Yes	+$149	03-01 12:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	63	$5.4K	7,859	7,859	+0	Yes	+$125	06-14 21:32
netanyahu out by march 31 854	11	$5.2K	2,678	2,678	+0	No	+$115	03-24 03:27
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	84	$4.6K	3,970	3,970	+0	Yes	+$71	03-16 12:18
will israel or the us target tehran 812	8	$4.3K	2,338	2,338	+0	Yes	+$299	02-28 06:58
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	18	$4.2K	3,324	3,324	+0	Yes	+$419	02-28 06:58
will iran strike israel on march 6	25	$3.9K	2,568	2,568	+0	No	+$433	03-09 02:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	18	$3.8K	2,313	2,313	+0	Yes	+$169	10-22 09:29
will iran strike dimona by march 31	41	$3.7K	1,962	2,068	-106	No	+$116	03-28 04:04
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?	54	$3.3K	2,738	2,738	+0	No	-$59	06-14 21:51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14	79	$3.2K	3,517	3,517	+0	Yes	+$450	06-14 21:42
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	48	$3.2K	3,454	3,454	+0	Yes	-$315	03-11 21:22
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	36	$3.2K	3,055	3,055	+0	No	-$21	01-21 06:54
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	48	$3.2K	2,911	2,811	+100	No	+$140	03-24 00:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	11	$3.2K	1,676	1,676	+0	Yes	+$40	06-15 01:18
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	53	$3.1K	2,073	2,073	+0	No	+$176	06-15 00:39
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	43	$3.0K	7,575	6,182	+1,393	No	+$11	07-31 21:33
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	32	$3.0K	2,368	2,368	+0	No	-$69	06-08 10:40
will israel strike greater beirut on march 7 2026	14	$3.0K	1,537	1,537	+0	Yes	+$16	03-07 21:56
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 21 2026	10	$3.0K	1,998	1,029	+969	Yes	+$59	03-21 03:34
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	21	$2.7K	2,250	2,250	+0	Yes	+$1,659	06-18 00:58
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	19	$2.7K	1,663	1,663	+0	Yes	+$234	03-02 00:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:54:32	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	821	100¢	$818	0x08f94d…
10-28 22:42:34	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	51	59¢	$30	0x122769…
10-28 22:32:17	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	14	59¢	$9	0x6421dc…
10-28 22:32:16	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x9e0128…
10-28 22:22:08	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1f6cc9…
10-28 21:21:55	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0xf407b0…
10-28 20:55:50	Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x6c0781…
10-28 20:55:16	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	710	82¢	$582	0x9f9138…
10-28 20:54:07	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0xb8569f…
10-28 20:52:08	LoL: Movistar KOI vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	T1	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0x3b76d5…
10-28 20:49:44	LoL: Movistar KOI vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0xc50069…
10-28 20:48:40	LoL: Movistar KOI vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	T1	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x1fbab9…
10-28 15:10:10	Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$22	0xe1be0f…
10-28 14:05:55	Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x08801e…
10-28 12:45:34	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	159	99¢	$157	0xc40db1…
10-28 12:45:34	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0e287b…
10-28 12:45:20	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	217	99¢	$215	0x871d97…
10-28 11:30:32	Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xce8b17…
10-28 02:18:41	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	72¢	$360	0x13d106…
10-28 02:01:09	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	210	73¢	$153	0xaabd2c…
10-28 01:49:00	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	183	62¢	$113	0xf88153…
10-28 01:44:56	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	122	60¢	$73	0xa6644f…
10-28 00:46:35	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x546829…
10-28 00:43:50	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x561786…
10-28 00:27:21	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	150	87¢	$130	0x9c1d29…
10-28 00:22:57	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	150	87¢	$130	0xd139bd…
10-28 00:21:47	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	330	23¢	$75	0x12cedf…
10-28 00:14:00	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	170	66¢	$112	0x359e39…
10-28 00:12:24	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0xdb19b4…
10-28 00:11:53	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$163	0xdb5619…
10-28 00:11:53	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x63825f…
10-28 00:11:30	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0xb671a0…
10-27 23:40:11	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	150	18¢	$27	0x2ad58d…
10-27 23:39:45	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x2941bc…
10-27 23:38:59	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x1f14c6…
10-27 23:35:54	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	150	77¢	$115	0x6e67ca…
10-27 23:31:45	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xc54c7b…
10-27 23:28:29	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xce622e…
10-27 23:26:27	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	26	33¢	$9	0xf9ed76…
10-27 23:21:35	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	83	19¢	$16	0xe5a8d7…
10-27 23:04:30	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	SELL	253	37¢	$94	0x54c9c4…
10-27 22:58:32	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xf2d96a…
10-27 22:49:30	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	150	81¢	$121	0x0f967d…
10-27 22:42:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	150	35¢	$52	0x00d643…
10-27 22:40:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	150	79¢	$119	0x3d88cf…
10-27 22:35:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	184	49¢	$90	0xb36fc7…
10-27 22:18:32	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x723fee…
10-27 22:16:38	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xbe5b02…
10-27 22:16:21	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0xbb1d3e…
10-27 22:16:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0xc4ad1c…
10-27 22:16:11	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	23	85¢	$20	0x266de5…
10-27 22:16:03	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	83	85¢	$71	0x288b55…
10-27 22:16:00	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0xd267e8…
10-27 22:10:51	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xe6c5c4…
10-27 22:10:35	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x866bf4…
10-27 22:01:32	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0xa3b396…
10-27 22:01:26	Will Together win 11-13 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	77	39¢	$30	0xd8319e…
10-27 21:56:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x7a44ce…
10-27 21:45:11	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0xabb312…
10-27 21:45:08	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	19	41¢	$8	0x8e8552…
10-27 21:44:35	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x17903c…
10-27 21:43:00	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x7dc279…
10-27 21:42:09	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	212	46¢	$97	0x84f4e5…
10-27 21:41:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	28	45¢	$13	0xbc0d65…
10-27 21:41:51	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	21	45¢	$10	0x0401cb…
10-27 21:41:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x688690…
10-27 21:41:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	81	45¢	$37	0x50971c…
10-27 21:35:51	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$14	0x2a49e8…
10-27 21:34:05	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0x1a827e…
10-27 21:33:39	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x3bb1d7…
10-27 21:32:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x569ecf…
10-27 21:15:53	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	140	54¢	$76	0xac9965…
10-27 21:06:05	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	300	35¢	$105	0x867d93…
10-27 20:59:20	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0x5d6ab4…
10-27 20:57:23	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	47	70¢	$33	0xc365ad…
10-27 20:53:59	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x34e93c…
10-27 20:53:38	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	286	70¢	$200	0x20d84b…
10-27 20:49:38	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	57	93¢	$53	0x157da3…
10-27 20:43:50	Will Joint List win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xf82833…
10-27 20:32:26	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x36b49e…
10-27 20:31:09	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	397	98¢	$389	0xc095aa…
10-27 20:30:39	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	148	98¢	$145	0x426380…
10-27 20:30:32	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x7b49bf…
10-27 20:26:53	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x08f5e8…
10-27 20:23:23	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	327	63¢	$206	0x146a30…
10-27 20:22:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	51	59¢	$30	0x6eb445…
10-27 20:22:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xe05114…
10-27 20:22:14	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x4c2434…
10-27 20:21:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	584	59¢	$346	0x1937fd…
10-27 20:21:08	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x955e51…
10-27 20:19:57	Will Together win 14-16 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x003e67…
10-27 20:13:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xfe6ded…
10-27 20:10:42	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	105	66¢	$69	0xa69302…
10-27 20:10:35	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x75fd9f…
10-27 20:04:54	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xe59bbe…
10-27 20:03:36	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	584	56¢	$325	0x1d8e84…
10-27 20:02:44	Will Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0x878a1a…
10-27 20:02:11	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	768	36¢	$277	0x8baab7…
10-27 19:57:59	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x34449f…
10-27 19:55:47	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	56	64¢	$36	0x3cf38c…