Substantial-Capitalism — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.97K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.3%

Resolved

187

Trades

536

lifetime

Volume

$46.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-11 15:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

69% 21% -$1,061

Other

18% 30% -$695

Sports

7% 36% -$54

Crypto

7% 50% -$103

Tech

0% 33% -$7

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$50

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-11).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	6	$7.8K	6,105	6,105	+0	No	+$876	04-16 16:01
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	4	$4.9K	17,658	2,658	+15,000	Yes	+$338	04-18 22:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	5	$4.9K	3,389	3,378	+11	No	-$431	04-21 20:22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$2.6K	1,447	1,447	+0	Yes	+$265	04-05 06:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	8	$2.1K	4,737	4,737	+0	No	-$554	04-22 21:18
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	3	$1.4K	2,367	1,363	+1,004	No	-$982	04-21 20:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	12	$1.4K	4,419	4,419	+0	Yes	-$181	04-07 23:20
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	6	$1.2K	1,810	1,810	+0	No	-$612	04-18 21:45
bitcoin above 72k on april 10	24	$1.1K	2,902	2,736	+166	Yes	-$61	04-10 14:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	20	$1.0K	1,051	1,050	+0	No	-$25	04-08 09:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$735	8,706	8,706	+0	Yes	-$93	04-08 19:42
bitcoin up or down on april 10 2026	14	$658	1,706	1,609	+98	Up	-$31	04-10 14:49
cs2 mglz prv 2026 04 09	19	$647	896	817	+79	TheMongolz	-$37	04-09 18:14
nhl fla ott 2026 04 09	14	$622	759	759	+0	Senators	-$8	04-09 20:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$530	455	455	+0	Yes	+$330	02-28 23:45
nba uta okc 2026 04 05	2	$440	227	226	+1	Thunder	+$0	04-05 12:56
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	8	$418	694	694	+0	No	-$2	04-09 18:14
lol ns dnf 2026 04 05	4	$392	202	201	+1	Nongshim Red Force	+$11	04-05 12:10
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	6	$391	584	584	+0	Yes	-$20	04-12 03:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$375	2,618	2,618	+0	No	+$75	04-20 10:50
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	3	$358	755	243	+512	Yes	+$118	05-17 08:15
nba bos nyk 2026 04 09	8	$354	333	328	+5	Knicks	-$3	04-09 20:24
will bitcoin reach 74k april 6 12	14	$354	451	432	+19	No	+$4	04-12 00:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$316	645	645	+0	open	—	05-30 16:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$308	9,089	9,089	+0	No	+$1	04-20 10:50
cricipl sun luc 2026 04 05	4	$295	3,454	0	+3,454	Lucknow Super Giants	-$295	04-05 12:44
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	3	$283	3,351	0	+3,351	No	-$283	04-12 14:46
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$283	518	518	+0	No	+$83	04-21 20:21
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	3	$283	1,131	0	+1,131	No	-$283	05-30 16:33
nhl tb ott 2026 04 07	6	$282	294	294	+0	Senators	-$3	04-07 22:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 15:37:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	227	6¢	$15	0x234197…
06-11 15:36:37	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	SELL	56	10¢	$5	0x0d61b2…
06-11 15:36:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	445	2¢	$9	0xdc3d2e…
06-10 21:29:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	445	2¢	$10	0x9a7fc6…
06-10 21:29:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	109	5¢	$5	0x45689c…
06-10 21:28:31	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	SELL	111	2¢	$3	0x2fe51f…
06-10 21:27:54	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	909	1¢	$13	0xd50183…
06-10 21:22:00	israel closes its airspace by june 10	Yes	BUY	716	7¢	$48	0x3ee922…
06-08 12:05:19	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	No	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x24fdb3…
06-08 12:05:15	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	4¢	$5	0x639af7…
06-08 12:03:54	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xade50b…
06-08 12:02:52	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	275	4¢	$10	0x797899…
06-08 11:43:28	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x0b2d33…
06-03 08:50:44	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,250	7¢	$88	0x338603…
05-30 16:33:50	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	516	22¢	$114	0x170c88…
05-30 16:27:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	645	18¢	$116	0x5652a7…
05-30 16:18:38	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	506	25¢	$126	0x21dbc3…
05-30 16:17:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	294	30¢	$88	0xd627f3…
05-30 16:17:12	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	139	30¢	$42	0xa443d4…
05-30 14:55:41	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	110	39¢	$43	0xc0f3f6…
05-25 07:32:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,136	2¢	$18	0x57fee5…
05-24 10:09:09	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	No	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x597035…
05-24 10:09:02	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	909	0¢	$5	0x2d07c5…
05-24 10:08:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,250	1¢	$11	0x9e44b2…
05-23 07:36:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	143	98¢	$139	0xa75710…
05-17 08:15:02	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	512	4¢	$20	0xa76949…
05-17 08:14:04	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	243	98¢	$238	0xdf0bce…
05-16 21:49:50	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0xb80ac0…
05-16 21:48:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	645	31¢	$200	0x536aa0…
05-16 21:48:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,136	4¢	$50	0x8e451b…
05-16 21:47:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0xb99ef5…
05-16 21:47:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x2759bf…
05-16 09:48:38	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	909	1¢	$10	0x29e8a0…
05-16 09:48:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	909	1¢	$10	0x0b11e7…
05-16 09:47:39	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x07bd58…
05-16 09:45:05	Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	423	12¢	$50	0x78cc83…
05-16 09:44:52	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	243	41¢	$100	0xad4042…
05-16 09:43:27	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	559	1¢	$5	0x2085d5…
05-16 09:41:42	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0xad8302…
05-16 09:40:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xcc36e8…
05-16 09:39:46	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xcfe076…
05-16 09:39:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x643a46…
05-16 09:38:48	Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xb5b073…
05-16 09:37:45	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?	Yes	BUY	296	17¢	$50	0x819b4a…
05-15 21:18:23	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,430	2¢	$50	0x01837b…
05-15 21:16:47	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	562	9¢	$50	0x823f53…
05-15 13:14:06	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	377	5¢	$20	0x9d0581…
05-15 13:12:37	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	Yes	BUY	815	6¢	$50	0x283bca…
05-15 13:09:14	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	6,007	0¢	$20	0xd4c433…
05-12 12:44:35	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	3,333	1¢	$20	0x7240fe…
05-09 20:48:37	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0x459f00…
05-08 19:19:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	649	29¢	$185	0xe7289c…
05-08 19:14:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	288	20¢	$57	0xe3b006…
04-22 21:22:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,355	0¢	$3	0x2069ef…
04-22 21:18:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x0d6a7d…
04-22 21:18:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$1	0x35d414…
04-22 21:18:26	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x2d28bd…
04-22 21:18:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xbb225f…
04-21 20:33:02	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	1,004	59¢	$596	0xf5e0cf…
04-21 20:22:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xf83cd3…
04-21 20:22:20	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0xda90c3…
04-21 20:22:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x4663a2…
04-21 20:21:52	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	518	35¢	$183	0x97168c…
04-21 20:21:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	539	32¢	$173	0xbb9dc1…
04-21 20:17:48	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	SELL	1,363	15¢	$204	0xe8c4be…
04-20 17:54:48	Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echargui	Moez Echargui	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x8a5317…
04-20 17:54:40	Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany	Guiomar Maristany	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x5e608f…
04-20 17:54:34	Madrid Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jaime Faria	Jaime Faria	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb2f6cb…
04-20 17:54:30	Shymkent: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Max Hans Rehberg	Svyatoslav Gulin	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x9a88b8…
04-20 17:54:22	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x8a408f…
04-20 17:29:48	Madrid Open, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Christopher O'Connell	Christopher O'Connell	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0x40eb1a…
04-20 17:19:42	Madrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski	Jan Choinski	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xe76707…
04-20 17:15:32	Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi	Matteo Arnaldi	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x3eabc0…
04-20 16:33:36	Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echargui	Aleksandar Kovacevic	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x7e0246…
04-20 14:57:28	Madrid Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Moez Echargui	Moez Echargui	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0x771e29…
04-20 14:57:28	Madrid Open, Qualification: Viktoriya Tomova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x42935c…
04-20 14:52:26	Madrid Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Chris Rodesch	Rinky Hijikata	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x13caa6…
04-20 14:52:24	Oeiras 4: Greet Minnen vs Carole Monnet	Greet Minnen	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x3b0ce1…
04-20 14:49:00	Rome: Henri Squire vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Henri Squire	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x313582…
04-20 14:49:00	Madrid Open, Qualification: Viktoriya Tomova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x0f9f1b…
04-20 14:44:06	Rome: Henri Squire vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Henri Squire	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xea6509…
04-20 14:44:06	Oeiras 4: Greet Minnen vs Carole Monnet	Greet Minnen	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x7c49f9…
04-20 14:44:04	Rome: Henri Squire vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Stefanos Sakellaridis	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xb5d753…
04-20 14:44:04	Oeiras 4: Greet Minnen vs Carole Monnet	Carole Monnet	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x5c0079…
04-20 14:43:20	dota2 re ngx 2026 04 20 game2	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xac53b9…
04-20 14:37:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x7060ab…
04-20 14:34:24	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0x0c896e…
04-20 14:34:02	Oeiras 4: Greet Minnen vs Carole Monnet	Carole Monnet	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x574b63…
04-20 14:34:02	Rome: Henri Squire vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Stefanos Sakellaridis	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x2d81d8…
04-20 14:33:58	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xb592ff…
04-20 14:28:56	Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez	Pedro Martinez	BUY	18	24¢	$4	0xcc9b7c…
04-20 14:24:24	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0xcb2106…
04-20 14:24:00	Oeiras 4: Greet Minnen vs Carole Monnet	Greet Minnen	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xd9a2d1…
04-20 14:24:00	Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch	Sara Sorribes Tormo	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x1ad349…
04-20 14:22:48	Shymkent: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Max Hans Rehberg	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	35	10¢	$4	0x4259c1…
04-20 14:22:20	Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany	Francesca Jones	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xcb95c9…
04-20 14:22:20	Shymkent: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Max Hans Rehberg	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x98dd70…
04-20 14:14:34	Shymkent: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Max Hans Rehberg	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xa0d14a…
04-20 14:14:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xfd3f6e…
04-20 14:14:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x21f75a…