Realized P&L (90d)
+$4.12K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.08K
Hit rate
80.4%
Resolved (90d)
227
Trades (90d)
1,392
2,356 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$163.7K
$278.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$118
Open exposure
$27.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-18
last 11-12 04:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 103 days
Categories
Politics
62% 82% +$10,185
Other
29% 78% +$1,295
Sports
9% 63% -$7,593
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$103
Crypto
0% 100% +$40
Tech
0% 100% +$70
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +10,500 $9,053 92¢ $9.7K +$660 11-12 01:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +3,279 $2,647 97¢ $3.2K +$535 11-10 12:32
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? Yes +3,170 $2,740 84¢ $2.6K -$93 11-11 01:06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +2,494 $2,089 92¢ $2.3K +$218 11-08 09:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +2,300 $1,678 86¢ $2.0K +$288 11-10 04:39
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? No +1,500 $1,343 90¢ $1.3K $0 11-11 14:07
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +1,358 $903 88¢ $1.2K +$299 11-12 00:42
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? Yes +1,000 $946 98¢ $976 +$30 11-11 04:55
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +750 $570 76¢ $566 -$4 11-10 17:13
Viktor Orbán arrested by...? No +500 $447 88¢ $440 -$6 11-10 09:20
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +350 $314 99¢ $348 +$34 11-04 06:20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +400 $133 72¢ $288 +$155 10-27 03:33
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? No — +300 $257 94¢ $282 +$25 09-25 22:03
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +250 $222 94¢ $236 +$14 11-06 14:08
Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 1%? No +235 $234 99¢ $234 -$1 11-05 02:47
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026? No +219 $197 90¢ $198 +$1 11-11 22:15
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +200 $176 94¢ $188 +$12 11-06 14:08
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? No +900 $288 18¢ $157 -$130 11-12 01:05
Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? No +117 $104 90¢ $106 +$2 11-09 01:02
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +100 $44 97¢ $97 +$53 09-30 09:02
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026? No +100 $93 97¢ $97 +$4 11-12 02:21
Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election? No +274 $88 32¢ $86 -$1 11-05 10:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? Yes +100 $74 80¢ $80 +$6 11-10 04:19
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes +100 $52 62¢ $62 +$10 11-01 00:41
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +1,000 $60 6¢ $55 -$5 11-05 12:05
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +100 $46 51¢ $51 +$5 11-05 00:41
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes +56 $49 88¢ $49 +$1 11-12 04:33
carles puigdemont back in spain in 2026 20260625011546952 Yes +50 $17 75¢ $38 +$20 08-03 04:22
Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 1%? No +20 $20 99¢ $20 $0 11-05 00:14
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date Yes +200 $70 9¢ $18 -$52 08-04 13:31