Realistic-Liquor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$155

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.3%

Resolved

923

Trades

2,324

lifetime

Volume

$65.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 01:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Other

69% 44% -$27

Politics

31% 9% -$22

Sports

0% 64% -$95

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Crypto

0% 33% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	106	$19.8K	10,021	10,021	+0	No	-$12	06-13 12:36
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	116	$17.7K	8,961	8,961	+0	No	-$17	06-11 16:54
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	42	$4.9K	2,451	2,451	+0	No	-$6	06-11 16:44
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	74	$4.8K	2,399	2,399	+0	No	-$3	06-01 11:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	14	$976	492	492	+0	No	-$1	05-30 01:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	14	$810	414	414	+0	No	$0	04-15 11:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$550	281	281	+0	No	$0	04-15 11:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$512	264	264	+0	No	$0	05-01 14:32
cs2 navi lgc 2026 06 12	5	$488	329	329	+0	Natus Vincere	+$28	06-12 15:51
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	7	$333	166	168	-1	No	$0	03-27 23:12
GTA VI released before June 2026?	6	$326	166	166	+0	No	$0	04-15 11:37
will the us invade iran by march 31	4	$321	180	180	+0	No	-$1	03-27 23:52
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	6	$298	153	153	+0	No	$0	05-29 13:31
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$246	124	124	+0	No	$0	04-13 10:22
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	4	$217	111	111	+0	No	$0	04-15 11:22
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$200	101	101	+0	No	$0	05-01 12:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$198	99	99	+0	No	$0	05-01 11:56
Trump out as President by June 30?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	$0	05-01 12:12
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$196	101	101	+0	No	$0	05-01 12:08
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?	3	$168	103	103	+0	No	-$34	05-03 11:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$166	84	84	+0	No	$0	03-27 22:52
trump out as president by march 31	2	$164	82	82	+0	No	$0	03-27 23:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$155	80	80	+0	Yes	$0	03-28 00:00
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	5	$141	141	141	+0	No	-$9	06-13 22:46
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	4	$132	88	88	+0	Yes	+$14	06-16 20:45
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	2	$126	64	64	+0	Yes	$0	04-13 10:10
wti up or down on april 13 2026	2	$125	65	65	+0	Up	$0	04-13 10:19
spx opens up or down on april 13 2026	2	$122	65	65	+0	Down	-$2	04-13 10:20
sea nap fio 2026 01 31 nap	5	$122	118	118	+0	Yes	+$2	01-31 17:52
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-31?	4	$119	87	87	+0	Yes	+$41	05-31 23:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 01:22:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x0b171e…
10-25 01:12:00	NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x1db335…
10-25 01:08:29	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xa97d0b…
10-13 17:54:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x26584d…
10-13 17:52:00	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xb0053e…
10-13 17:50:21	NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x61d267…
09-11 11:52:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xacf1f6…
09-11 11:52:31	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x97422f…
08-28 19:47:24	will milo yiannopoulos be deported in 2026	No	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xcfd875…
08-28 19:45:09	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x038173…
08-28 19:44:12	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x52b348…
08-20 21:14:03	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xd99d86…
08-20 21:13:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x1af4d8…
08-13 12:43:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xf7ce64…
08-13 12:40:04	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x01a9be…
08-11 11:12:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x82d855…
08-11 11:12:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$2	0x1331d7…
08-11 11:06:57	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0xe0e8dd…
08-03 11:31:48	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7832e8…
08-03 11:29:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x862d6a…
08-03 11:12:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0x71425b…
08-02 02:04:36	Will LD Alajuelense win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xa08a6c…
08-02 01:54:21	Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xfd88b0…
08-02 00:54:08	Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0xb80daf…
08-02 00:46:42	Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa89ee2…
08-01 01:37:30	Will Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x951b66…
08-01 01:36:21	Will Club Puebla win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x55e49d…
08-01 01:34:33	mex pue gua 2026 07 31 btts	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x639174…
07-31 11:49:02	Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x83c8dc…
07-31 11:44:09	Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf7aab4…
07-15 10:49:35	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x54a270…
07-13 11:52:14	Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x5ed9f1…
07-13 11:50:07	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x0907f3…
07-13 11:37:56	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xd300f4…
07-13 11:29:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 13?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x4909a2…
07-02 10:49:20	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xfbec94…
07-02 10:47:28	Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x638fce…
07-02 10:46:49	Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xe9eb51…
07-02 10:42:23	Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x0eff3e…
07-02 10:41:55	Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xf3d3ad…
07-02 10:40:59	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 btts	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xb47a17…
07-02 01:04:59	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0xd561fb…
07-01 18:05:19	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x2fe850…
07-01 18:02:46	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xb5cc4b…
07-01 17:51:59	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xbc8d23…
07-01 17:49:56	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xd88537…
07-01 16:24:40	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x4e518a…
07-01 16:17:02	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xdd1d5a…
07-01 16:12:13	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x5f7aec…
07-01 16:11:38	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x50fc41…
07-01 16:10:10	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xa7cd81…
07-01 16:09:55	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	19	24¢	$5	0x6b1514…
07-01 10:33:10	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf32259…
07-01 10:32:22	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xd1df34…
07-01 10:32:02	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x1fb5c7…
07-01 10:31:14	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x928bb5…
06-30 21:37:37	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x19f000…
06-30 21:12:47	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x24b112…
06-30 21:09:49	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xe5abc1…
06-30 19:25:41	Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xb2c6c9…
06-30 19:21:43	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x9eb9e0…
06-30 19:08:56	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x15493e…
06-30 18:33:31	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	SELL	23	42¢	$10	0x018028…
06-30 18:19:34	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x29e30c…
06-30 18:18:07	Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x5b6c40…
06-30 17:38:43	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	No	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0xce61cf…
06-30 17:37:07	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x8600f5…
06-29 19:27:25	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x66618e…
06-29 19:15:11	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x374d4b…
06-28 21:31:26	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x759b38…
06-28 20:07:28	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x1c5d9e…
06-28 20:05:40	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xfbd5f2…
06-28 19:55:52	Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x76c5fc…
06-28 17:54:49	Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xcfe631…
06-28 04:04:52	Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	SELL	21	46¢	$10	0x815232…
06-28 04:04:26	Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	SELL	14	67¢	$10	0xe0183b…
06-28 04:04:07	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	SELL	17	57¢	$10	0x2dd525…
06-28 03:38:44	Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0x70cc15…
06-28 03:33:56	Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0x90eba1…
06-28 03:31:08	Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x9a492c…
06-28 03:25:38	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xfa969b…
06-28 02:48:01	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xc1dda8…
06-28 02:44:43	Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	SELL	26	58¢	$15	0x5fbb6f…
06-28 01:47:38	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x85a16c…
06-28 01:45:56	Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x20c190…
06-28 01:42:38	Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x935cea…
06-28 01:41:55	fifwc alg aut 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x9ee679…
06-28 01:24:28	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x639902…
06-28 00:15:07	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x70d111…
06-28 00:05:25	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc28c05…
06-28 00:05:04	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa83200…
06-28 00:04:23	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x38be01…
06-28 00:03:40	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0d4e87…
06-28 00:03:23	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x99d9ee…
06-27 18:56:11	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	12	55¢	$6	0xa2e62c…
06-27 18:44:32	ufc mic6 sha28 2026 06 27	Shara Magomedov	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x806e14…
06-27 17:19:49	Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x6f97e5…
06-27 14:08:35	ufc jul18 abd8 2026 06 27	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x2e45c7…
06-27 14:07:40	ufc mic6 sha28 2026 06 27	Shara Magomedov	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x909a14…
06-27 05:04:20	Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x87b3e7…