Cloudy-Injustice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.60K

Hit rate

87.2%

Resolved

36,673

Trades

201,289

lifetime

Volume

$2.50M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$34.3K

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 10-30 13:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 193 days

Categories

Other

83% 86% +$17,305

Politics

11% 86% +$3,534

Sports

4% 96% +$1,517

Tech

1% 85% -$141

Crypto

0% 80% -$398

Pop-Culture

0% 89% +$348

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 1961 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+3,237	$3,014	100¢	$3.2K	+$223	10-28 10:55
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+2,832	$2,319	78¢	$2.2K	-$120	09-22 12:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+2,119	$2,108	100¢	$2.1K	+$4	10-28 20:03
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	+2,074	$1,575	98¢	$2.0K	+$468	10-28 22:39
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+1,411	$1,401	100¢	$1.4K	+$5	10-27 09:06
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+1,390	$1,389	100¢	$1.4K	-$1	09-20 17:19
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+1,354	$1,353	100¢	$1.4K	-$1	09-20 03:27
Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	+1,340	$1,254	100¢	$1.3K	+$81	10-29 14:32
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+1,277	$505	100¢	$1.3K	+$768	10-24 14:13
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+1,195	$1,194	100¢	$1.2K	-$1	10-25 17:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	+1,118	$1,076	99¢	$1.1K	+$26	10-28 16:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+1,072	$1,053	98¢	$1.1K	-$3	10-29 23:03
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+937	$897	99¢	$929	+$32	10-29 01:29
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+887	$879	100¢	$886	+$7	10-28 23:50
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+890	$872	98¢	$875	+$3	10-26 09:28
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+875	$866	99¢	$864	-$2	10-27 19:15
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+875	$854	98¢	$858	+$4	10-28 22:14
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+835	$831	100¢	$831	+$1	10-26 13:13
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	No	+826	$773	99¢	$820	+$48	09-25 16:43
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+835	$814	97¢	$812	-$2	10-27 11:36
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+820	$799	99¢	$810	+$11	10-30 12:51
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+805	$802	100¢	$801	$0	10-26 13:13
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	+931	$723	86¢	$801	+$77	09-14 09:32
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+795	$788	99¢	$786	-$2	10-26 16:00
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+790	$787	97¢	$769	-$18	09-23 04:47
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+766	$763	100¢	$764	+$1	10-28 17:25
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+777	$766	98¢	$763	-$3	10-28 15:26
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+765	$763	100¢	$762	$0	10-26 13:13
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+765	$762	99¢	$761	-$2	10-26 13:13
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+765	$760	99¢	$760	$0	10-26 13:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	575	$14.5K	14,535	238	+14,297	No	+$52	10-26 00:07
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	437	$11.9K	11,922	502	+11,420	No	+$90	10-26 07:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	228	$7.7K	7,710	78	+7,632	No	+$55	10-26 00:11
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	297	$7.0K	8,075	352	+7,723	No	+$1,162	10-25 23:01
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	154	$4.1K	4,275	17	+4,258	No	+$166	09-20 19:21
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	78	$3.8K	3,797	153	+3,644	No	+$8	10-25 23:16
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	259	$3.8K	4,462	13	+4,450	No	+$676	09-20 19:14
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	112	$3.2K	3,273	25	+3,248	No	+$117	10-02 10:58
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	52	$3.0K	3,237	0	+3,237	open	—	10-28 10:55
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	147	$2.8K	2,959	0	+2,959	No	+$135	07-10 15:55
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?	121	$2.8K	3,036	5	+3,031	No	+$223	05-20 21:20
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	127	$2.7K	2,729	3	+2,726	No	+$3	09-19 16:58
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	97	$2.7K	2,683	36	+2,647	No	+$5	09-20 14:26
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	122	$2.5K	2,529	378	+2,151	No	+$11	10-24 18:56
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	70	$2.5K	2,532	0	+2,532	No	+$25	10-25 22:49
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	112	$2.5K	2,531	462	+2,069	No	+$63	10-25 23:01
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	60	$2.4K	2,485	153	+2,332	No	+$62	10-25 23:16
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	102	$2.4K	2,377	0	+2,377	No	+$6	09-17 02:52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	71	$2.4K	2,380	25	+2,355	No	+$16	09-16 14:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	332	$2.3K	2,514	1,487	+1,027	No	+$675	09-09 18:50
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	123	$2.3K	2,832	8	+2,824	open	—	09-22 12:05
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	126	$2.2K	2,195	190	+2,005	No	+$2	09-25 15:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	92	$2.2K	2,204	25	+2,179	No	+$19	09-11 14:59
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	89	$2.1K	2,128	155	+1,973	No	+$12	09-11 05:39
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	73	$2.1K	2,119	20	+2,099	open	—	10-28 20:03
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	102	$2.0K	1,973	26	+1,947	No	+$19	09-20 19:21
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	77	$2.0K	1,953	231	+1,722	No	+$4	10-22 04:43
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	94	$1.9K	2,362	0	+2,362	No	+$424	09-01 16:18
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?	78	$1.8K	1,964	41	+1,923	No	+$137	05-20 21:04
Will Julian Alvarez join Chelsea?	32	$1.8K	1,800	6	+1,793	No	+$13	08-31 22:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 13:28:37	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xeced02…
10-30 13:24:06	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xf33ec4…
10-30 13:18:58	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x1cfe02…
10-30 13:11:21	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xd52d17…
10-30 13:08:37	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xba3817…
10-30 13:07:22	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2dbacb…
10-30 13:06:40	Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf702d1…
10-30 13:04:24	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0x1f5c32…
10-30 13:02:06	Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	75	9¢	$7	0xad3585…
10-30 13:01:06	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$0	0x9e3944…
10-30 13:00:46	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xabc97f…
10-30 13:00:45	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xc4fa73…
10-30 13:00:45	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xa6a1fb…
10-30 13:00:45	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x01a853…
10-30 12:59:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x897b6c…
10-30 12:56:13	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	33	44¢	$15	0xeb38d5…
10-30 12:56:13	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	No	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xd06a90…
10-30 12:53:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0x1ce766…
10-30 12:53:37	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0x1c8b31…
10-30 12:51:12	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x5c72bd…
10-30 12:50:36	Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x134eae…
10-30 12:49:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x1da1ee…
10-30 12:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xff2329…
10-30 12:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x1c4c7c…
10-30 12:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on October 31?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x1813c3…
10-30 12:47:33	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xf8ab38…
10-30 12:46:40	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x90f9c0…
10-30 12:43:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 20°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xeaa264…
10-30 12:43:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x9cbc50…
10-30 12:41:01	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x99a409…
10-30 12:38:58	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xc406f8…
10-30 12:38:30	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xfb7dbe…
10-30 12:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on October 31?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9c2443…
10-30 12:35:49	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x7d11d8…
10-30 12:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C on October 31?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$7	0xea0dd0…
10-30 12:35:22	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x6e99f9…
10-30 12:34:49	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x714bba…
10-30 12:33:18	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	45¢	$20	0xd55103…
10-30 12:28:37	Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	28¢	$21	0x485f89…
10-30 12:26:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa44239…
10-30 12:23:06	Will Keria have the most kills at Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x50f18f…
10-30 12:22:00	Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xdea00a…
10-30 12:17:30	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xbf6aa2…
10-30 12:13:37	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xe40a2f…
10-30 12:13:37	Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x975766…
10-30 12:09:09	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xdc7400…
10-30 12:08:55	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x00013c…
10-30 12:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x46a1fd…
10-30 12:08:00	Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf88b72…
10-30 12:07:19	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x1c6181…
10-30 12:06:19	Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x77c17b…
10-30 12:03:21	Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x17a027…
10-30 12:02:49	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be 250,000 or more?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7bf2b7…
10-30 12:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xdb9bfc…
10-30 12:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x61effe…
10-30 12:00:03	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x58fbe9…
10-30 11:58:13	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xe0fa86…
10-30 11:54:43	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	47¢	$188	0x61f4d1…
10-30 11:54:06	Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x3d4930…
10-30 11:54:04	Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?	No	BUY	125	60¢	$75	0x9acaea…
10-30 11:47:15	Will ByteDance be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xedf76d…
10-30 11:47:15	Will Mistral be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb62777…
10-30 11:47:15	Will Baidu be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xade735…
10-30 11:47:15	Will MiniMax be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x4cd675…
10-30 11:47:15	Will Amazon be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x16ddf2…
10-30 11:47:13	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xe89080…
10-30 11:47:13	Will Thinky be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe7cb6c…
10-30 11:47:13	Will Nvidia be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9af046…
10-30 11:47:13	Will Meituan be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x64dc9a…
10-30 11:47:13	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3fbc02…
10-30 11:47:13	Will DeepSeek be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2dafec…
10-30 11:47:13	Will Microsoft be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x05a87c…
10-30 11:47:09	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9557ec…
10-30 11:46:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0x05e305…
10-30 11:45:10	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xeafef3…
10-30 11:44:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x30e2da…
10-30 11:43:55	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x0db44a…
10-30 11:43:37	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$1	0x0c57a3…
10-30 11:38:37	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x42de88…
10-30 11:38:37	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0x365819…
10-30 11:33:37	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xd23193…
10-30 11:33:37	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x967bad…
10-30 11:33:37	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x8d68bc…
10-30 11:33:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0x762fca…
10-30 11:33:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6c4dc9…
10-30 11:33:22	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x63c3b0…
10-30 11:28:37	Will PP win the most seats in A Coruña in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0xcd8f48…
10-30 11:25:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	81¢	$22	0xb09058…
10-30 11:23:37	Will Tangles win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x762011…
10-30 11:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x3d80e4…
10-30 11:19:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xa15989…
10-30 11:17:40	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?	No	BUY	45	71¢	$32	0xa011e5…
10-30 11:17:37	Will Aleksandar Repić win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9bf3da…
10-30 11:15:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x0b75cd…
10-30 11:15:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x137313…
10-30 11:14:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x062080…
10-30 11:11:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x257d81…
10-30 11:10:22	Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x8860b6…
10-30 11:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	No	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x8cecb4…
10-30 11:04:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	51¢	$23	0xf30bee…