Big-Hearted-Pamphlet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$169

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

172

Trades

349

lifetime

Volume

$24.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$117

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-22 23:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

83% 77% -$152

Tech

6% 86% +$17

Politics

5% 76% -$1

Crypto

5% 58% -$51

Sports

1% 86% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ramp IPO before 2027?	No		-108	-$91	97¢	$-105	-$14	04-30 16:59
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-133	-$23	9¢	$-12	+$11	08-22 23:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in madrid on april 12 2026 15c	2	$6.3K	3,192	3,188	+5	No	+$89	04-11 23:03
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	8	$2.9K	1,441	1,441	+0	No	-$1	04-09 12:01
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	11	$2.5K	1,253	1,253	+0	open	—	07-31 15:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	Yes	+$1	04-11 20:24
highest temperature in madrid on april 12 2026 12c	2	$1.1K	598	598	+0	No	-$30	04-11 20:34
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$621	315	315	+0	No	+$1	04-23 10:17
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$561	464	464	+0	Yes	-$59	02-26 14:44
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 9 2026 20corhigher	1	$477	487	0	+487	Yes	+$10	04-09 11:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$430	295	264	+31	No	+$2	05-30 23:02
GTA VI released before June 2026?	3	$300	203	102	+101	No	+$1	05-04 22:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$262	132	132	+0	No	+$2	05-25 19:25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	3	$242	152	152	+0	Yes	+$2	05-08 10:18
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$230	128	142	-14	Yes	+$30	01-31 15:10
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	3	$221	116	116	+0	open	—	06-09 11:48
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	3	$215	134	119	+15	Yes	$0	06-25 09:42
will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	2	$202	104	104	+0	No	+$2	03-23 14:57
highest temperature in amsterdam on april 9 2026 17c	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	04-09 11:52
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$201	112	112	+0	Yes	+$1	04-26 08:13
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	04-03 21:09
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$201	101	101	+0	Yes	+$1	04-23 10:16
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$201	109	109	-0	open	—	06-13 09:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$200	102	102	+0	No	+$1	04-23 10:16
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-23 10:16
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$200	105	105	+0	No	+$0	03-24 11:04
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$200	101	100	+0	No	+$0	03-28 15:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-30 09:07
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$199	126	126	+0	No	-$1	05-07 14:51
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$198	108	108	+0	No	-$2	03-16 11:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	4	$188	105	105	+0	Yes	+$8	07-31 15:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$124	67	67	+0	Yes	+$4	07-15 20:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-22 23:00:46	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	133	17¢	$23	0x615436…
08-22 23:00:39	Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0f1092…
08-22 23:00:24	Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x483ad8…
08-22 23:00:18	New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	103	95¢	$98	0x8b8a78…
08-22 22:54:46	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x61e1ac…
08-22 22:54:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x7ca8a5…
07-31 15:20:15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x30e842…
07-31 15:20:09	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	305	98¢	$299	0x0f186b…
07-16 16:39:20	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 17?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xa98ee7…
07-16 16:36:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x6e3a1d…
07-16 15:07:22	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf6c266…
07-15 20:59:05	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x329837…
07-15 20:59:02	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0xd45e02…
07-15 20:58:56	Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x872872…
07-15 20:58:52	Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5e0551…
07-15 20:58:46	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2d421e…
07-15 20:58:40	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x998dbb…
07-15 20:58:34	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7f32b9…
07-15 20:58:25	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x10eff4…
07-15 20:58:20	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x01ccbb…
07-15 20:58:16	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xaf58ac…
07-15 20:58:11	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xdfb384…
07-15 20:58:05	Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x783701…
07-15 20:57:59	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xb21b77…
07-15 20:57:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	67	95¢	$64	0xe3634f…
07-15 20:09:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xe6bfaa…
07-14 10:11:02	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xa2eb52…
07-13 09:06:50	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xfa6f47…
07-12 08:56:53	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1293cb…
07-11 15:44:22	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0x56f1a8…
07-11 15:42:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0x28d47b…
07-10 15:16:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x83f5e4…
07-10 15:15:56	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	815	98¢	$799	0xfff9fe…
07-09 12:24:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	407	98¢	$400	0xb97d7b…
07-09 12:07:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xb4657e…
07-08 12:43:34	Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xb27a97…
07-07 08:20:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x695106…
07-06 11:47:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x3b532d…
07-05 12:15:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	407	98¢	$400	0x493709…
07-05 12:15:31	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x8a8a8d…
07-05 12:15:23	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x1ae8ac…
07-05 11:55:17	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x49782e…
07-04 13:52:56	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0bb02b…
07-02 09:52:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4033c9…
07-01 11:17:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xe302bd…
07-01 00:00:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x42d050…
06-30 14:50:44	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x51ee06…
06-30 14:49:41	Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x335499…
06-29 09:13:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x83569d…
06-29 09:13:26	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	32	81¢	$26	0x20317f…
06-28 12:02:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6b4ffa…
06-27 15:38:26	will wti dip to 50 in june 2026 932 595 332	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xec88f2…
06-26 15:12:47	saudi arabia bans us military aircraft by june 30	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41501d…
06-25 09:42:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x618f93…
06-24 15:37:08	Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xafc13e…
06-23 11:24:05	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x519850…
06-22 14:37:59	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe121c4…
06-21 11:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2aa1eb…
06-21 10:59:49	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xe732c2…
06-20 19:10:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x17498b…
06-20 10:03:01	Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x80fef6…
06-19 12:10:29	Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbc3020…
06-18 10:07:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe5e3dd…
06-17 11:52:07	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb96cce…
06-16 09:12:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd283a2…
06-15 10:30:34	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x893b85…
06-14 22:54:54	Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x98f4ba…
06-14 22:51:13	Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfb28f0…
06-14 15:24:34	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1412bb…
06-13 10:12:39	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9157ad…
06-13 09:50:01	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf919b0…
06-13 09:19:30	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc68707…
06-13 09:19:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb1ebab…
06-13 09:19:16	will wti crude oil wti hit high 175 in june	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4e772c…
06-13 09:19:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6ad73c…
06-13 09:19:03	Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7f5e40…
06-13 09:18:54	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x99c4c4…
06-13 09:18:40	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	109	93¢	$101	0x38baf4…
06-12 09:40:18	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x36b210…
06-10 09:36:45	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x46fa8a…
06-09 13:54:03	will wti crude oil wti hit high 175 in june	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2b84cb…
06-09 11:48:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	90¢	$25	0xbfa125…
06-09 11:48:00	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	SELL	116	96¢	$111	0x22a7b1…
06-08 09:39:57	Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xeeb5a3…
06-07 10:10:48	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x237717…
06-06 10:35:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xf35cd9…
06-05 08:26:21	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbe67ef…
06-04 09:45:46	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7fce20…
06-02 23:08:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 4?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2fb324…
06-02 14:57:38	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x48b059…
06-02 09:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb695d7…
06-01 08:34:27	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbbecf1…
05-31 18:47:50	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x935401…
05-30 23:02:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x408cf9…
05-30 17:28:15	Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xca23d9…
05-30 00:01:58	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x1f38f7…
05-29 11:43:28	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x621b03…
05-28 12:08:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xafb3c3…
05-27 09:09:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3a69cc…
05-26 17:12:15	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x73d1b5…